Resource spending over time in competitions for electoral support

So far we have little by way of a theoretical understanding of the dynamics of electoral competition. This paper attempts to fill some of this gap by studying resource expenditure over the electoral cycle. Among the main results is that, when contributions from donors are independent of support, parties accelerate expenditure during the entire period between elections, even when voters do not forget. If contributions depend on support, and are significant, parties front load expenditure and decelerate.     

Plurality support for democratic decay: the 2019 Polish parliamentary election

Abstract

The 2019 parliamentary election in Poland resulted in continuity of the incumbent PiS party-coalition. The election saw, for Poland, an unprecedented turnout of 62%. The 44% support for PiS translated into a 51% majority in the Lower House. The ability of the three opposition blocs (KO, SLD and PSL) to coordinate their political campaign for the upper chamber resulted in their victory – PiS lost the majority in the Senate. This post-2019 period thus starts as parliamentary cohabitation. The preceding four years had witnessed repeated violations of the constitution by the government (including attempts to dismantle the separation of powers and to turn public media into a partisan propaganda machine) accompanied by a general anti-liberal and anti-European stance. The electorates of the two major party-blocks have polarized in terms of their socio-demographic features. The new government does not differ much from the pre-election one, with the same PM and most ministers. The first weeks of its governing indicate that the government’s general as well as sectoral policies will be continued, including the controversial, illiberal ones. Finally, the election though free, was unfair, if for no other reason than the simple one of the partisan nature of the public media.     

试论经济周期的历史发展——兼及中国经济周期的发展趋势

本文系统分析了封建社会自然条件下、资本主义市场经济条件下以及我国计划经济体制和市场取向改革条件下经济周期的历史发展,并展望了我国经济周期将实现从中波周期到轻波周期的转变。     

The single transferable vote and ethnic conflict: The evidence from Northern Ireland

There has been a long-running debate amongst constitutional engineers between those who favour the proportional representation of parties (usually via PR-Closed List systems) and post-election power-sharing (Lijphart) and those who favour attempting to induce pre-election inter-ethnic ‘vote-pooling’ (Horowitz) as a more effective and stable method of governing divided societies. Less attention has been paid to the fact that other options are available. A leading candidate amongst these is the Single Transferable Vote (STV), a non-categorical ordinal ballot system that may be capable of combining the essential ‘fairness’ of proportionality with the centripetal benefits of some inter-ethnic vote-pooling. Northern Ireland is the only divided society with extensive experience of STV elections. This paper examines the empirical evidence before and after the 1998 Belfast Agreement by examining the operation of the electoral system at the Northern Ireland Assembly elections of 1982, 1998, 2003, 2007 and 2011. The main findings are that prior to the 1998 Agreement inter-ethnic vote-pooling in Northern Ireland was very close to zero. Afterwards (1998–2007) terminal transfers from the moderate unionist UUP to the moderate nationalist SDLP averaged 32 per cent (and 13 per cent in the opposite direction). Although most transfers clearly remain within ethnic blocs, these inter-ethnic terminal transfers are a change with the past and suggest that STV may be an appropriate electoral system choice for some divided societies.     

美国“平等-不平等政治”的历史周期率及其对中国的启示

对于“占领华尔街”运动所暴露出的美国社会贫富差距扩大和两级分化现象，可以用美国学者保罗·克鲁格曼的“不平等政治”与“平等政治”相互转换的分析理论来解释。在他看来，美国的政治与经济社会之间的关系是政治的平等或不平等决定着经济社会的平等或不平等；美国不平等政治与平等政治的转换经历了“严重不平等”的“前新政”时期、“相对平等”的“新政”时期和“高度不平等”的保守主义政治时期这三个阶段；美国正面临着走向新平等政治并实现贫富差距“大缓和”的历史机遇。然而，“占领华尔街”运动却表明，美国的不平等政治仍然在延续，美国至今未能从制度上解决“平等一不平等政治”周期性转换这一政治不公平问题。由此可以得出如下启示：在当今世界各国包括中国，有“良知”的政治学家和政治家，不仅要推进民主政治，还应该正视“平等一不平等政治”的周期率，并努力超越不平等政治，施行公平政治，以此推进经济社会的公平发展。     

老年社会生态探骊

随着人的平均寿命的不断延长 ,在更年期的调整变化中 ,不少人的内在生理机能出现了复苏现象 ,从而开始生命过程的第二周期。老龄化社会的出现是多种社会生态因素复合作用的结果。老年人繁衍了后代 ,为社会的进步 ,各项事业的发展 ,付出了毕生的精力和智慧 ,他们现在共享社会发展的成果 ,是过去劳动的延期支付。老年人才资源的“二次开发”,既是“科教兴国”的客观需要 ,又可以“为”促“养”     

Economic or cultural backlash? Rethinking outsiders’ voting behavior

Political economists show that outsiders (unemployed and temporary workers) support redistributive policies more than insiders (standard dependent workers) and infer outsiders' voting behavior from their desired degree of State intervention in the economy. However, it has been suggested that international interdependence is reshaping the political space along two dimensions: the traditional economic left-right scale, and an emerging cultural integration-demarcation dimension. How do outsiders behave in this two-dimensional political landscape? This research note answers this question by combining individual data from the latest five waves of the European Social Survey (2008–2016) with party positions provided by the Comparative Manifesto Project on 27 European countries. Integrating research based on party families with parties’ policy positions, results show that the economic State-market dimension is still more linked to outsiders’ voting behavior than the cultural integration-demarcation dimension.     

Voting at 16: Intended and unintended consequences of Austria's electoral reform

Several democracies are currently debating whether to lower their legal voting age to 16, but relatively little is known about the long-term consequences of such reforms. We contribute to this debate by studying electoral habit formation among 16-year-old voters in Austria, where the national-level voting age was decreased in 2007. We employ eligibility-based regression discontinuities to evaluate two consequences of the reform. First, we show that eligible 16-year-olds are more likely to vote in future elections. Second, we demonstrate that the political consequences of this reform were not neutral. Newly eligible young voters are more likely to place themselves towards the extremes of the ideological spectrum. We also simulate the cumulative long-term impact on electoral outcomes and argue that the reform was costly for the centrist government parties that initially adopted it.     

The servant of two masters: Electoral incentives in the Scottish Parliament

Scholars have pointed out the potential impact of different electoral systems on the incentives for representatives to cultivate personal versus party reputations. The mixed-member proportional system (MMP) allows us to examine the effects of electoral systems on legislators’ incentives. Scholars have argued that MMP may be the ‘best of both worlds’; however, MMP may lead to competing demands on list representatives if they are also allowed to run as constituency candidates, as happens in the Scottish Parliament. I show that this leads to different levels of committee activity—which I use as a surrogate for party activity—from constituency Members of Scottish Parliament (MSPs), pure-list MSPs (who are elected via the party list and do not run in constituencies), and dual-candidate list MSPs (list MSPs who also run in constituencies), and that the proximity of elections also affects committee activity for those who run in constituencies.     

沂蒙黑山羊发情周期中输卵管促性腺激素受体基因的表达差异研究

采用RT-PCR方法,以持家基因GAPDH为内参,研究沂蒙黑山羊发情周期中卵泡刺激素受体(FSHR)mRNA和黄体生成素受体(LHR)mRNA在输卵管中的表达差异。结果表明,发情周期中促性腺激素受体mRNA在输卵管中都有表达。漏斗部FSHR mRNA在间情期的表达量最高,发情期表达量最低,且发情期与其他3个时期差异极显著(P<0.01)。壶腹部在间情期的表达量最高,发情前期表达量最低,间情期与其他时期差异极显著(P<0.01)。在峡部则是发情后期表达量最高,发情前期最低,发情前期与其他3个时期差异极显著(P<0.01)。LHR mRNA表达量与FSHR mRNA呈相反规律,以发情期漏斗部相对表达量最高,与其他部位差异极显著(P<0.01)。研究结果显示,发情周期中促性腺激素受体基因在输卵管中呈规律性的动态变化。表明,在动物排卵、受精及早期胚胎发育过程中促性腺激素受体mRNA起着一定的调节作用。