我国未成年犯社区矫正进程中的几个问题

现阶段我国未成年犯社区矫正工作尚处于探索阶段,实践中存在许多不足之处。大多数学者比较注重未成年犯社区矫正的立法、矫正项目、矫正队伍等问题,忽略了农村地区、流动在城市的外来未成年犯的社区矫正工作。探索并解决好这些问题,对我国未成年犯社区矫正的健康发展有所裨益。     

China＇s Higher Education System＂ A Case for Cautious Optimism

Although China＇s unemployment rate for university graduates is quite high and overall satisfaction among students is lower than desired, there are some universities experiencing atypical results. The authors build on previous surveys conducted in 2008 and 2010 by conducting the third survey of students in a university in eastern China. The results are atypical. Student satisfaction is much higher in certain categories than anticipated. Follow-up surveys of faculty members find that they prioritized teaching more than research and this accounts for the difference between the results observed here and those found previously. In short, the faculty at this university disregarded the incentive system and prioritized teaching above what the system was designed for. In turn, students experienced higher levels of satisfaction than the norm for Chinese universities. Faculty acknowledged that they were rewarded for research but prioritized teaching. While it is possible that some might disregard economic incentives for other priorities, it is highly unlikely a majority would. A more compelling explanation is the well-thought-out and highly developed two-fold incentive system this university uses, which can be exported to other Chinese universities seeking similar results.     

Tracing Foreign Policy Decisions: A Study of Citizens' Use of Heuristics

Public opinion researchers agree that citizens use simplifying heuristics to reach real, stable preferences. In domestic policy, the focus has been on citizens delegating judgement to opinion leaders, notably political parties. By contrast, citizens have been held to deduce foreign policy opinions from their own values or principles. Yet there is ample scope for delegation in the foreign policy sphere. In this exploratory study I use a 'process-tracing' method to test directly for delegation heuristic processing in university students' judgements on the Iranian nuclear issue. A substantial minority sought guidance on foreign policy decisions, either from parties, international actors or newspapers. This was not always simple delegation; some used such heuristics within more complex decision-making processes. However, others relied on simple delegation, raising questions about the 'effectiveness' of their processing.     

Immigration and support for redistribution: survey experiments in three European countries

In times of increasing globalisation scholars put considerable efforts into understanding the consequences of immigration to the welfare state. One important factor in this respect is public support for the welfare state and redistribution. This article presents results from a unique survey experiment and a panel study in three European countries (Norway, Germany and the Netherlands) in order to examine whether and how individuals change their preference for redistribution when faced with immigration. Theoretically, citizens with high incomes should be especially likely to withdraw their support for redistribution because they fear the increased fiscal burden, whereas other types of citizens might ask for more compensation for the increased labour market risks caused by immigration. The empirical evidence reveals that only respondents with high incomes and those who face low labour market competition withdraw support for redistribution when faced with immigration.     

How Accurate Are Survey Responses on Social Media and Politics?

How accurate are survey-based measures of social media use, in particular about political topics? We answer this question by linking original survey data collected during the U.S. 2016 election campaign with respondents’ observed social media activity. We use supervised machine learning to classify whether these Twitter and Facebook account data are content related to politics. We then benchmark our survey measures on frequency of posting about politics and the number of political figures followed. We find that, on average, our self-reported survey measures tend to correlate with observed social media activity. At the same time, we also find a worrying amount of individual-level discrepancy and problems related to extreme outliers. Our recommendations are twofold. The first is for survey questions about social media use to provide respondents with options covering a wider range of activity, especially in the long tail. The second is for survey questions to include specific content and anchors defining what it means for a post to be “about politics.”     

导致过度劳动因素的贡献估计 —— 基于因变量方差分解法

过劳是一种不健康状态,危害严重。有诸多因素导致过劳。估计这些因素对过劳贡献所采用的计量方法大多为回归分析、相关分析等,可以发现导致过劳的显著变量并估计其边际贡献,但不能估计这些变量对过劳贡献的比重,据此难以确定反过劳政策的重点。因变量方差分解法用于估计自变量对因变量方差的贡献,可用于估计导致过劳的因素对过劳的贡献。研究显示,导致过劳因素依其对过劳的贡献依次为:劳动强度、工作时间、工作满意度、应酬状况、工资拖欠状况、相对支付能力、工作环境、年龄、城市级别、性别、工作单位类型等。     

论加快贵州省毛南族经济发展

在国家确定扶持加快发展的22个人口较少民族中,贵州仅有毛南族。由于历史自然条件等诸多方面的原因,贵州省毛南族集聚地区的经济和社会发展总体水平相对滞后,贫困问题仍十分突出,为进一步加强民族团结,加快经济社会可持续快速健康协调发展,构建社会主义和谐社会,加快我省毛南族地区经济建设发展具有十分重要的意义。     

Do citizens care about government debt? Evidence from survey experiments on budgetary priorities

Ever since the Great Recession, public debt has become politicised. Some research suggests that citizens are fiscally conservative, while other research shows that they punish governments for implementing fiscal consolidation. This begs the question of whether and how much citizens care about debt. We argue that debt is not a priority for citizens because reducing it involves spending and tax trade-offs. Using a split-sample experiment and a conjoint experiment in four European countries, we show that fiscal consolidation at the cost of spending cuts or taxes hikes is less popular than commonly assumed. Revenue-based consolidation is especially unpopular, but expenditure-based consolidation is also contested. Moreover, the public has clear fiscal policy priorities: People do not favour lower debt and taxes, but they support higher progressive taxes to pay for more government spending. The article furthers our understanding of public opinion on fiscal policies and the likely political consequences of austerity.     

《中医体质量表（韩文版）》在韩国人群中应用的横断面研究

目的 通过横断面调查,了解韩国人群中医体质类型分布规律,探索性分析影响韩国人群中医体质的影响因素。方法 2014年5—11月,选取居住于首尔地区的300例韩国人,运用《中医体质量表（韩文版）》调查其中医体质类型,比较不同性别、不同职业、不同体质量指数者的中医体质类型,并与中国常模的中医体质类型进行比较。结果 300例被调查人群中,平和质69例,其余8种偏颇体质225例,兼夹体质6例,居于前3位的偏颇体质类型为阳虚质（占14.3%）、湿热质（占13.3%）和阴虚质（占12.7%）。不同性别者的体质类型比较,差异具有统计学意义（P<0.05）;不同职业者的体质类型比较,以及不同体质类型者的体质量指数比较,差异均无统计学意义（P>0.05）;与中国常模的体质类型分布比较,差异具有统计学意义（P<0.01）,其中韩国人群阳虚质构成比高于中国常模,气虚质构成比低于中国常模。结论 韩国人群的中医体质类型存在性别差异,其分布情况可能与中国人群不同,但尚需要大样本数据的验证。     

中国早期留日学生的社会调查实践

20世纪初,中国赴日留学生以其饱满的爱国热情,对中国社会的方方面面进行了大量、细致的调查研究,他们用自己创办的刊物登载了许多调查报告及翻译文章,使读者认识到清政府的腐败无能和人民的水深火热,进而试图找到一条民族振兴的出路,留日学生的社会调查实践,宣传了进步思想,开创了严谨务实的学界风气。