Why Solidarity Matters: The Political Strategy of Welfare Design

Reporting on our recent book, The Solidarity Society, this article explores the way in which the design of welfare programmes interacts with and shapes the underlying quality of social relations between members of society—and, through this, public attitudes to welfare. Given that sustaining generous welfare over long timescales requires the support of electorates, this ‘relational’ dimension of welfare policy is crucial for the long‐term strategy of tackling poverty and inequality. The article looks in particular at the ‘welfare dilemmas’ that can arise from tensions between targeting and universalism and between need and entitlement, where the distributional and relational elements of welfare policy work against one another. We conclude that entrenching a generous welfare settlement will require strong elements of both universalism and reciprocity in the design of welfare.     

Reaching Out or Pulling Back: Macroeconomic Conditions and Public Support for Social Welfare Spending

In economic hard-times, do Americans call for increases in governmental assistance, or do they clamor for declines in government assistance? We address this question by identifying the impact of state-level macroeconomic conditions on public support for social welfare spending. We analyze individual-level data from the 1984–2000 National Election Studies, combined with state-level macroeconomic indicators of inflation, unemployment, and productivity. We find that state-level inflation, not state-level unemployment nor state-level productivity, consistently and consequentially shapes citizens’ support for social welfare. With rising inflation, Americans become more supportive of means-tested social welfare spending. Our analyses generally reaffirm the value Americans place on the social welfare safety net, especially during times of economic duress. When the going gets tough, Americans reach out, rather than pull back.     

Analysis on the Policy Effects of Strict Inflation and Flexible Inflation in Interest Rate Liberalization

This paper analyzes the policy effects of interest rate liberalization under strict inflation targeting and flexible inflation targeting, which is based on the new theory of Keynes model and the introduction of price stickiness in the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. By building, calibrating, estimating and simulating a new Keynesian DSGE model, we analyze and compare the effect of strict inflation targeting and flexible inflation targeting in the process of the interest rate liberalization. Research results show that, first of all, the strict inflation targeting regulation makes the output volatility smaller and the inflation volatility greater in face of technology shocks. Secondly, the flexible inflation target system is more conducive to controlling output and inflation in the short period when facing monetary policy shocks. Finally, the control of the strict inflation target is less from the point of view of the loss function. In other words, the central bank's loss function under the control of the strict inflation target system is small, but the flexible inflation targeting system is more conducive to controlling output and inflation in the short period.     

中国货币政策扼制通货膨胀的效果——基于2005．7—2008．9样本的实证分析

实证分析的结果表明,2005年7月以后,中国实施紧缩性货币政策在调控方向上是正确的,有利于扼制通货膨胀.但由于前期通货膨胀的惯性和外汇占款的增加,紧缩性货币政策的效果被严重削弱,甚至出现了"紧缩性货币政策下的通货膨胀".只有各种经济政策特别是货币政策、财政政策和汇率政策本身有所改进,而且在方向、时间和力度上能够相互配合,才能提高中国货币政策扼制通货膨胀的有效性.     

When Terrorism Goes to Sea: Terrorist Organizations and the Move to Maritime Targets

Terrorist groups are often relatively conservative in their choice of strategy, tactics, and targets, and it is worth asking what characteristics are associated with unconventional behavior. In this article we explore the question of why terrorist organizations move to one type of unconventional attack that has been a focus of concern of policymakers in recent years, namely attacks on maritime targets. Through an investigation of the organizational capacity and ideology of terrorist groups that committed maritime attacks between 1998 and 2005, we argue that this kind of violent behavior is driven by capability. Certain organizational characteristics of terrorist groups—territorial control, involvement in the drug trade, organizational size, and connections with other groups—provide groups with the capabilities that make maritime attacks both realistic and desirable. Terrorist groups' ideology—what they believe, and what their goals are—does not have the same impact, with the possible exception of groups affiliated with al-Qaeda. Our findings have implications for future research.     

Crime Scene and Distance Correlates of Serial Rape

This study, derived from a sample of 108 serial rapists (rapes=565), examines the relationship between demographic, crime scene, and criminal history variables and the distance traveled by serial rapists in order to offend. The pattern of offenses perpetrated by each of the 108 serial offenders as it relates to his place of residence is also analyzed in terms of known characteristics of the offender and his offenses. The theoretical focus of the study integrates premises derived from criminal investigative analysis, environmental criminology, ethnographic geography, journey to crime research, and criminal geographic targeting to explore the cognitive symmetry between the how and the where of serial sexual offenses. These components or dimensions of serial crime are explored in an attempt to aid law enforcement in their investigation of hard-to-solve serial crimes.     

Inflation targeting at the crossroads: Evidence from post-communist economies during the crisis

The objective of this paper is to assess if inflation targeting post-communist economies performed better, in terms of output growth, during the crisis than their non-inflation targeting counterparts. The paper also puts the issue in the context of the preconditions of inflation targeters to adopt this regime. 26 post-communist economies of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States are analyzed during the ongoing economic crisis. Results suggest that inflation targeters of those countries performed worse than non-inflation targeters. The growth decline in inflation targeters post-communist economies has been estimated to be deeper by about four percentage points than that in non-inflation targeters. The study finds very limited role of the preconditions for growth decline. Only the lower amount of monetary financing of the budget may have contributed in inflation-targeting countries to have gone through the crisis better.     

Governing the Economic Transition: How Taiwan Transformed its Industrial System to Attain Virtuous Cycle Development

This study explores the transitional processes of Taiwan's innovation system over the past half century, evolving from being rooted in traditional industries to attaining development in a virtuous cycle of development. Our approach is inspired by the Arena of Development theory and acknowledges the system of transformation failures, in which we highlighted the types of failures that might impede economic progress and how they were overcome in the evolutionary targeting of Taiwan's industrial development. Our findings demonstrate that the success of Taiwan's economic transition is targeted on, and evolves with, a series of macrolevel policies in the early phase of development; mesolevel institutional mechanisms to attain the industrial emergence settings; and, in pursuit of the virtuous cycle of development, the microlevel collaboration platform. We attribute the success of Taiwan's industrial system to this series of systematic government interventions. This study provides novel and salient normative principles that guide transformational policymakers in governing transitional processes of innovation system.     

替米考星肺靶向微球的研制

采用乳化-化学交联法制备了替米考星肺靶向微球,并采用高效液相色谱法,通过MCPKP药代动力学软件分析,验证了该替米考星明胶微球在兔体内的肺靶向性。结果显示,替米考星明胶微球性质稳定、分散良好,且带有正电荷,平均粒径为11.20μm,粒径5.0～25.0μm的微球占总数的95.65%;载药量为39.83%,包封率为70.47%;形态圆整;体外释药半衰期(T50)为5.99 h,约在35 min时有突释效应,随后缓慢释放。替米考星明胶微球对肺的靶向效率较心脏、肌肉、肝和肾分别提高了5.05、3.04、4.60、3.47倍;肺、心脏、肌肉、肝和肾的相对摄取率分别为8.48%、1.72%、2.79%、1.85%和2.44%;肺、心脏、肌肉、肝和肾的峰浓度比分别为2.19、0.41、0.64、0.75和0.84。表明用优化的制备工艺制得的替米考星明胶微球有良好的肺靶向性,同时可以减轻替米考星的心脏毒性。     

20世纪80年代以来三次通货膨胀成因的比较研究

20世纪80年代以来.中国发生了1985年、1988-1989年,以及1993-1995年三次严重的通货膨胀.三次通货膨胀都是货币超量供应引发的.粗放式经济增长是引起投资冲动的重要原因:地方政府的投资热、行政干预是通货膨胀的助推器;需求拉动、成本推动是三次通货膨胀的共同原因,但在不同时期有不同表现;农业发展相对滞后是引发结构性通货膨胀的主要原因;国际因素对中国物价走势的影响不断加大.2008年下半年以来,全球经济面临着通货紧缩的成胁,但各国在应对金融危机中注入的大量资金,有可能成为下一轮通货膨胀的根源,因此,中国在防止通货紧缩的同时,还需警惕外部输入型通货膨胀的卷土重来.