A losing gamble. How mainstream parties facilitate anti-immigrant party success

The emergence of anti-immigrant parties in Western Europe has provoked very different responses from mainstream parties. Some have tried to counter the anti-immigrant parties while others have tried to recapture lost voters by taking a tougher stance on immigration. Country comparative studies have tried to determine the effectiveness of different strategies, but systematic testing has been impaired by small-n problems. This paper therefore exploits sub-national variation in 290 Swedish municipalities to investigate the effect of mainstream party strategy on anti-immigrant electoral success. The paper finds that a tougher stance on immigration on the part of mainstream parties is correlated with more anti-immigrant party support, even when controlling for a large number of socio-economic, historical and regional factors. This result indicates that mainstream parties legitimize anti-immigrant parties by taking a tougher position on immigration. However, the results presented in the paper show that it is not sufficient for one mainstream party to take a tougher position; it is only when the entire political mainstream is tougher on immigration that the anti-immigrant party benefits. What is more, the toughness of the parties on the left seems to be more legitimizing than the toughness of the parties on the right.     

中央-地方互动与“十一五”节能目标责任考核政策的制定过程分析

节能目标责任考核政策是我国"十一五"期间用以保障实现单位国内生产总值能源消耗降低20%这一约束性指标的重要政策,本文从中央-地方互动视角研究该政策的制定过程。研究发现,节能目标责任考核政策的制定过程呈现出"中央政府提出方针——地方政府进行创新性政策实践——中央政府肯定创新并颁布新政策——地方政府进行政策复制"的中央-地方互动特征,具有地方政策创新和自上而下政策复制相结合的特点。源自省级政府的政策实践是我国节能目标责任考核政策建立的主要学习源,为中央政府的政策出台提供了参照与经验,加速了中国节能考核政策的发展。但这些作为政策备选项的地方实践,总体上比较单一,并在中央节能目标责任考核政策出台后迅速进行了复制式修订。此外,节能目标责任考核政策的地方创新性实践主要发生在省级政府层面,地市级政府和更低层次的政府更多起到的是政策执行的作用。本文从动力机制的角度对此现象进行了初步解释。     

上海地方政府投融资平台投融资机制创新研究

地方政府投融资平台是我国政府投融资管理中的一大创新。改革开放以来,上海积极探索投融资体制改革,地方政府投融资平台公司总体发展比较稳健,但也存在一定的问题和风险。新时期推进上海地方政府投融资平台投融资机制创新,要着力构建资金来源多样化、融资机制市场化、融资主体多元化、融资平台多层化的新型投融资体制,大力推进证券化、股权化、资本化、国际化的融资渠道创新,优化融资结构,提升融资能级,完善融资环境,更好地满足新时期上海经济社会发展的投融资需求。     

The impact of organisational attributes on political participation: results of a multi‐level survey from Switzerland

Abstract: The notion of civil society associations as schools of democracy has resulted in models of political participation that place an emphasis on membership in civic associations as a means of developing personal skills that are conducive to political participation. These suppositions seem well established. It is still contested, however, to what extent the particular characteristics of the associations that offer such membership have an impact on civic engagement. Expanding recent research that mainly builds on group characteristics aggregated from the characteristics of the associations’ members, we apply the Swiss part of a unique multi‐level data set, the CID‐data, which provides information about approx. 1000 activists from about 400 associations. This data allows us to measure group characteristics, such as the function of an association and its connection to the local elite, directly and thus provides us with a special opportunity for a multi‐level analysis of activists nested in organisations.     

Die Ausgaben der Schweizer Kantone ‐ Eine Fuzzy Set QCA

The paper investigates the factors influencing the 26 Swiss Cantons' government expenditures. While the question has been subject to various statistical analyses, the present study has an alternative focus by adopting a configurative perspective. We take the findings of the 2002‐study by Vatter and Freitag, as our point of departure and re‐analyse their significant variables with regard to their combined impact using updated data from 2000 to 2006 and employing Fuzzy Set QCA. The results underline the important effect of monetary transfers from the federation thus corroborating the Flypaper Effect thesis from Economic Theory.     

中国行政成本的演变特征及其驱动因素分析(2000-2009)

本文在分析2000～2009年中国行政成本演变特征的基础上,采用灰色关联分析法计算了行政成本与其19个驱动因素之间的关联度。实证结果表明,近年来,中国行政成本一直呈现增长的态势,外部驱动因素和内部驱动因素对于中国行政成本增长几乎同等重要。外部驱动因素中,国民经济增长和人民生活水平提高对中国行政成本增长的影响相对较强,人口增长和物价上涨的影响相对较弱。内部驱动因素中,财政收入增长对中国行政成本增长的影响相对较强,其次是政府职能扩张和人员费用增长,公用费用增长对中国行政成本增长的影响相对较弱。在此基础上,本文提出了行政成本合理化的相关建议。     

公共教育财政支出与地方经济发展

借助VAR模型,利用C市1979-2009年的教育支出与经济增长数据进行实证研究,发现当期的教育投资的经济增长弹性为0.5451。运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验对C市的教育支出和实际经济增长之间的内在关系进行实证分析,结果表明教育投资与实际经济增长之间存在着明显的互馈关系,并在长期内稳定地存在着协同互动的均衡关系。     

政府采购物业管理服务创新研究

物业管理服务是由物业服务企业提供的对房屋及配套的设施设备和相关场地进行的维修、养护、管理,维护相关区域内的环境卫生和秩序的活动。随着政府后勤服务的改革,物业管理服务愈来愈被政府机构所认可;伴随着政府采购的深入,物业管理服务也被纳入政府采购之列。全面采购"常规性公共服务",根据需要区别采购物业企业的特约性服务及市场经营性服务,有选择性地采购公众性代办性服务,对于政府资源配置市场化和提高政府财政资金使用效率具有深远的实践意义。     

近年来我国公共政策科学研究评估（2004-2008）

20多年来,我国公共政策科学从无到有,取得了长足的发展。但由于其理论体系和方法论主要是对西方公共政策科学的粗略嫁接甚至是完全移植,这种先天的不足导致了我国公共政策科学缺乏本土化研究,其理论研究缺乏国际化视野,其论证过程缺乏技术理性,在很长一段时间里其研究都滞留于较低水平。因此,提高我国公共政策科学研究水平,需要加强对我国公共政策科学理论体系的创新,处理好本土化研究和国际化研究间的关系;加强我国公共政策科学研究的技术工具体系的创新。     

Forecasting the 2015 general election using aggregate local election data

Local government election results are used to estimate a national equivalent vote that provides the basis for a general election forecast. By-elections provide the means for calculating weighted quarterly averages of national support. These show trends similar to those obtained by national polls. By-election results in the three month period leading to the general election contribute towards the national vote share calculation and seat distributions are determined by uniform national swing. Additionally, results from the main council elections from 2011 onwards are aggregated to the parliamentary constituency level and used to estimate each party's relative performance in key target seats. This information is used to fine-tune the final seat forecast which suggests a hung parliament is the most likely outcome.