演化范式下中国地方政府创新可持续性研究

地方政府创新不仅是世界范围内政治经济发展的一种普遍现象和趋势,也是推动我国政治-行政改革的主要手段。本文在梳理地方政府创新相关文献、分析中国地方政府创新案例的基础上,基于演化范式对中国地方政府创新可持续性进行了理论探讨。首先,本文重新界定了地方政府创新可持续性的内涵;其次,研究了其演化路径与内容,指出了地方政府创新可持续性的四条演化路径和三个方面的内容;然后,分析了其内外部决定因素,总结出地方政府的适应性学习、"政治企业家"精神、知识累积、创新的路径依赖、多样性选择主体的内生需求、知识外溢与竞合、创新嵌套的行政文化和技术创新等八个决定因素;最后,构建了地方政府创新可持续性的分析模型。     

政治和技术的二分与互动——引证于“万人评议政府”绩效评估模式分析

政府绩效评估是一个由政治和技术构成的有机整体,在政治和技术二分的基础上把握两者的互动规律有助于我们更好地认识政府绩效评估的运行原理,探索提高其认同度和使用价值的方法。运用文本分析和深入访谈方法对珠海市“万人评议政府”这一个案进行了历史性分析,不仅发现了政治主导技术、技术约束政治的互动规律,而且发现了这种互动在流程上的非均衡性。基于上述发现提出的实践策略包括坚持评估目的与评估模式相匹配,选择合适的评估主体并合理分配评估权力,根据事前承诺运用评估结果。笔者基于上述理论反思和探索性分析认为,政治与技术的视角比较切合中国的政治制度,因为政治与技术的视角关注的是行政过程中的政治与技术之间的关系。     

A losing gamble. How mainstream parties facilitate anti-immigrant party success

The emergence of anti-immigrant parties in Western Europe has provoked very different responses from mainstream parties. Some have tried to counter the anti-immigrant parties while others have tried to recapture lost voters by taking a tougher stance on immigration. Country comparative studies have tried to determine the effectiveness of different strategies, but systematic testing has been impaired by small-n problems. This paper therefore exploits sub-national variation in 290 Swedish municipalities to investigate the effect of mainstream party strategy on anti-immigrant electoral success. The paper finds that a tougher stance on immigration on the part of mainstream parties is correlated with more anti-immigrant party support, even when controlling for a large number of socio-economic, historical and regional factors. This result indicates that mainstream parties legitimize anti-immigrant parties by taking a tougher position on immigration. However, the results presented in the paper show that it is not sufficient for one mainstream party to take a tougher position; it is only when the entire political mainstream is tougher on immigration that the anti-immigrant party benefits. What is more, the toughness of the parties on the left seems to be more legitimizing than the toughness of the parties on the right.     

中央-地方互动与“十一五”节能目标责任考核政策的制定过程分析

节能目标责任考核政策是我国"十一五"期间用以保障实现单位国内生产总值能源消耗降低20%这一约束性指标的重要政策,本文从中央-地方互动视角研究该政策的制定过程。研究发现,节能目标责任考核政策的制定过程呈现出"中央政府提出方针——地方政府进行创新性政策实践——中央政府肯定创新并颁布新政策——地方政府进行政策复制"的中央-地方互动特征,具有地方政策创新和自上而下政策复制相结合的特点。源自省级政府的政策实践是我国节能目标责任考核政策建立的主要学习源,为中央政府的政策出台提供了参照与经验,加速了中国节能考核政策的发展。但这些作为政策备选项的地方实践,总体上比较单一,并在中央节能目标责任考核政策出台后迅速进行了复制式修订。此外,节能目标责任考核政策的地方创新性实践主要发生在省级政府层面,地市级政府和更低层次的政府更多起到的是政策执行的作用。本文从动力机制的角度对此现象进行了初步解释。     

上海地方政府投融资平台投融资机制创新研究

地方政府投融资平台是我国政府投融资管理中的一大创新。改革开放以来,上海积极探索投融资体制改革,地方政府投融资平台公司总体发展比较稳健,但也存在一定的问题和风险。新时期推进上海地方政府投融资平台投融资机制创新,要着力构建资金来源多样化、融资机制市场化、融资主体多元化、融资平台多层化的新型投融资体制,大力推进证券化、股权化、资本化、国际化的融资渠道创新,优化融资结构,提升融资能级,完善融资环境,更好地满足新时期上海经济社会发展的投融资需求。     

优化我国西部欠发达地区基层政府绩效评估的路径——美国政府绩效评估的启示

西部欠发达地区由于受到资金、技术、人才等多种因素的制约和限制,完善的基层政府绩效评估体系几乎还是一片空白。我国政府绩效评估起步较晚,在相对落后的西部地区建立完善的政府绩效评估体系,需要借鉴国外的成功经验。因此,本文结合我国西部欠发达地区的特点以及经济社会发展的现状,从考察美国政府绩效评估的经验入手,探索完善我国西部欠发达地区基层政府绩效评估体系的路径。     

The impact of organisational attributes on political participation: results of a multi‐level survey from Switzerland

Abstract: The notion of civil society associations as schools of democracy has resulted in models of political participation that place an emphasis on membership in civic associations as a means of developing personal skills that are conducive to political participation. These suppositions seem well established. It is still contested, however, to what extent the particular characteristics of the associations that offer such membership have an impact on civic engagement. Expanding recent research that mainly builds on group characteristics aggregated from the characteristics of the associations’ members, we apply the Swiss part of a unique multi‐level data set, the CID‐data, which provides information about approx. 1000 activists from about 400 associations. This data allows us to measure group characteristics, such as the function of an association and its connection to the local elite, directly and thus provides us with a special opportunity for a multi‐level analysis of activists nested in organisations.     

地方政府与驻地中央机构的互动——以“央视大火”的应急处置过程为例

整体政府理论涉及政府部门之间的横向合作与沟通,也涉及上下级政府之间的纵向协调与整合,旨在克服当前政府管理过程中普遍存在的"碎片化"制度结构和部门自我中心主义,提升政府处理综合性问题的能力。本文以整体政府理论为分析工具,深入分析"央视大火"应急处置中地方政府与驻地中央机构的互动过程,考察不同层级政府间合作的利益协同机制、资源共享机制、责任分担机制、信息沟通机制,以及由此引发的合作困境,并有针对性地提出政策建议。     

近年来我国公共政策科学研究评估（2004-2008）

20多年来,我国公共政策科学从无到有,取得了长足的发展。但由于其理论体系和方法论主要是对西方公共政策科学的粗略嫁接甚至是完全移植,这种先天的不足导致了我国公共政策科学缺乏本土化研究,其理论研究缺乏国际化视野,其论证过程缺乏技术理性,在很长一段时间里其研究都滞留于较低水平。因此,提高我国公共政策科学研究水平,需要加强对我国公共政策科学理论体系的创新,处理好本土化研究和国际化研究间的关系;加强我国公共政策科学研究的技术工具体系的创新。     

Forecasting the 2015 general election using aggregate local election data

Local government election results are used to estimate a national equivalent vote that provides the basis for a general election forecast. By-elections provide the means for calculating weighted quarterly averages of national support. These show trends similar to those obtained by national polls. By-election results in the three month period leading to the general election contribute towards the national vote share calculation and seat distributions are determined by uniform national swing. Additionally, results from the main council elections from 2011 onwards are aggregated to the parliamentary constituency level and used to estimate each party's relative performance in key target seats. This information is used to fine-tune the final seat forecast which suggests a hung parliament is the most likely outcome.