Tea Party support and perceptions of local economic conditions

Researchers have long studied the underpinnings of voter perceptions of national economic conditions. Of growing interest though, is the effect of local economic evaluations on approval and voting behavior. Even though individuals engage more directly with the local economy than with that of the nation, perceptions of local conditions are colored as much by individual attitudes and demographics as by objective measures. Metropolitan area unemployment rates strongly predict local evaluations, but so do education, age, sex, and political attitudes. Of particular interest, even controlling for objective conditions, support for the Tea Party strongly predicts more negative evaluations and overpowers most other sources of bias.     

Forecasting the 2015 general election using aggregate local election data

Local government election results are used to estimate a national equivalent vote that provides the basis for a general election forecast. By-elections provide the means for calculating weighted quarterly averages of national support. These show trends similar to those obtained by national polls. By-election results in the three month period leading to the general election contribute towards the national vote share calculation and seat distributions are determined by uniform national swing. Additionally, results from the main council elections from 2011 onwards are aggregated to the parliamentary constituency level and used to estimate each party's relative performance in key target seats. This information is used to fine-tune the final seat forecast which suggests a hung parliament is the most likely outcome.     

Money,candidates, and mayoral elections

In this paper, we extend a well-trod line of research from congressional and state-level elections—the electoral impact of campaign expenditures and candidate characteristics—to a relatively understudied context, urban mayoral elections. Using a sample of large U.S. cities, we provide evidence that mayoral elections are very similar to elections at other levels of office: there is a tremendous incumbency advantage, one that is overcome only with great effort; campaign spending is closely tied to incumbent vote share but it is challenger rather than incumbent spending that seems to drive outcomes; and challengers are hopelessly outspent. In addition, we find that the effect of local economic conditions on incumbent success is mediated by challenger spending and that incumbent candidates fare better in racially diverse settings.     

两级财政博弈下地方政府举债行为分析

中央和地方财政博弈随着财政制度调整一直存在。在两级财政博弈下,地方政府在财政包干制度下存在“经营企业”行为,在分税制制度下存在“经营城市”行为。地方政府“经营城市”行为结合土地制度最终导致地方政府大举借债行为的发生。     

Sales Tax Competition among State–Local Governments: Evidence from the US Counties

This article estimates tax reaction function of local governments competing with other governments to provide the insight for tax policy decision makers. Employing a panel of county-level data in all the states from 1970 to 2006, this article analyzes sales tax competition between county governments. In addition to a static model, this article pays more attention to dynamics in tax reaction function estimated by general methods of moments containing lagged dependent variables in the reaction function. Focusing on county governments, this article finds evidence for strategic interaction, an interaction that has positive effects on the setting of tax rates in a county.     

地方政府与农民在农村土地流转中的角色定位及重塑

农村土地流转制度改革是一个复杂而系统的过程,需要明确地方政府的主导角色和发挥农民的主体作用。然而,当前土地流转过程中地方政府与农民的角色定位与现实境遇存在巨大偏差,遭遇到种种困境和瓶颈束缚,迫切要求从体制上、从观念上加以重塑,推动农村土地流转制度改革。     

论20世纪70年代台湾乡土文学价值观

20世纪70年代台湾地区乡土学的本质是现实主义学，偏重于学的社会功能，隐含着或直接表现出对社会和化的批判，体现出乡土作家强烈的社会责任感。以社会价值为学价值观念的形成，与当时日益尖锐的社会矛盾与社会问题密切相关，同时与一个熟悉台湾现实生活的本土青年作家群的掘起有关，而“五四”新学的影响在其间所起到的重要作用也不容低估。70年代台湾乡土学找回了失落多年的现实主义人精神，促成了该地区学的多元化。     

村落视野中的国家权力与地方传统——清末以降的花瑶社会生存状况考察

传统现代化理论认为,旧有传统是制约现代化进程的主要因素,随着这一进程的不断深入和现代民族—国家的全面兴起,国家权力将逐渐成为主宰乡村社会的主要力量,传统的力量与影响将最终消失。但对花瑶社会近百年来地方传统与国家权力之间的关系所进行的系统考察,却得出与此相反的结论:在传统国家向现代民族—国家的转变过程中,面对国家权力的强力渗透与侵入,地方传统并未全面瓦解和消失,而是依然在这一社会的日常生活和文明延续中起着重要作用。     

Italy: a case of mutating populism?

Italy is often presented as a showcase of populist parties. In the 2013 parliamentary elections, half of the Italian electorate voted for a party that has been labelled populist. During the 1994–2011 period, Italy witnessed four coalition governments dominated by populists. In line with the framework guiding this special issue, Italy thus offers a unique opportunity to trace the reactions of political and societal actors to populists in government. We propose that it is necessary to examine not only how populism's opponents react, but also how fellow populists respond. Indeed, we observe in Italy, on the one hand, what we will call mutating populism and, on the other hand, a peculiar mixture of paralysis, antagonism, and imitation by their opponents. This contribution is structured as follows: first, we describe Italian populism in the context of the end of the Italian First Republic and the emergence of the new party system under the Second Republic. In the process we discuss events under the four Berlusconi governments (1994–1995; 2001–2005; 2005–2006; 2008–2011). In each phase, we distinguish between populist and anti-populist contenders. We also describe the reactions abroad to governing Italian populists, especially within the European Union.     

地方政府间竞争的影响要素分析

地方政府之间的竞争直接影响着地方经济和社会发展的总体态势。影响地方政府间竞争的因素有居民流动性、政府间协调机制、法制环境和地方官员政绩考核标准。