From Jerusalem to Baghdad? Israel and the War in Iraq

The prevailing opinion that the Bush administration took the United States to war against Iraq in March 2003 under false pretenses has led many to believe that Israel's security was the secret rationale for the war. According to this "war for Israel" thesis, neoconservative policymakers in the Bush administration, the pro-Israel lobby in the United States, and Israel's government all pushed the United States to go to war with Iraq for the sake of Israel's security. This article critically assesses this controversial claim and examines Israel's role in the U.S. decision to invade Iraq. I argued that while neoconservatives were instrumental in promoting the Iraq war, Israel was not their primary concern and that although American Jewish organizations and the Israeli government did largely support the Iraq war, they did not seek it or actively lobby for it.     

欧洲主权债务危机的反思及其对东亚货币合作的启示

始于希腊波及欧洲多国的欧洲主权债务危机,不仅威胁欧元区的经济复苏,使欧元区的内在弊端暴露无遗,而且还引发人们对欧洲一体化进程和最优货币区理论的反思,为其他地区经济货币合作特别是东亚货币合作提供诸多启示。     

Decoding Negotiation Systems in the Middle East and North Africa: A Framework for Analysis

Regional conflicts are becoming increasingly complex due to the involvement of an ever more numerous and interconnected set of actors. Previous research has focused on regional conflict systems and has generated theoretical approaches such as the regional security complex paradigm. However, when complex, multifaceted, seemingly contradictory webs of relationships are spun in a region, new tools are needed to analyze and evaluate them. Drawing on previous regional conflict models, we propose a negotiation-oriented framework of regional conflict analysis that explores the type and intensity of relationships between state and nonstate actors in a conflict system. We offer a seven-step scale of relationships (ranging from ally to active armed opponent) that represents a novel contribution to the methodological efforts to analyze relationships in conflict systems. This framework brings to light the relational imbalance of the MENA region and has the potential to contextualize for negotiators and mediators the complex system of conflicts within, and possibly outside, the region.     

走出国际反恐怖主义的误区

日益猖獗的恐怖主义活动 ,反映出国际反恐怖斗争存在着诸多问题 ,既有对恐怖主义范围界定不明确 ,在打击恐怖活动中治标不治本的问题 ,也有某些国家运用恐怖手段打击恐怖主义 ,以及以反恐怖为借口干涉他国内政的行为。这些问题的存在使国际反恐怖斗争步入误区。若要走出国际反恐怖主义的误区 ,必须回顾历史 ,吸取教训 ,改变国际反恐怖战略     

犹太民族的现实主义世界观与国家安全战略

“生存至上”的原则是以色列独立后维护国家安全利益的基本原则。以色列国家安全战略的基本指导思想和理论架构是西方国际关系理论中现实主义权力政治思想同中东国际政治斗争历史实践相结合的产物。半个世纪的阿以冲突和冷战对峙为这一战略提供了得以实施、检验、修正、完善的历史实践舞台,赋予了以色列国家安全战略强烈的军事冲突特点和冷战斗争色彩。其中的均势外交和武力威慑两大战略构成了冷战时代以色列国家安全战略的两根支柱,对于以色列国家的生存和发展至关重要,历来被以色列政治家和军事家所倚重。     

论量刑情节的适用和基准刑的确定

中段论假定,均质化的、排除任何情节的"裸"的犯罪行为类型,其客观的法益侵害还是主观的人身危险都是中间程度的,但是这一假设不能成立。因此,基准刑应当针对具体罪行分别确定,而不能按照法定刑的中点抽象地、简单地确定。而适用量刑情节时,基准刑应当为起点刑,在从重从轻情节竞合情形,在量化的前提下,可以通过加减方式量刑,但是在适用减轻情节时,必须把握减轻处罚优先原则。     

《孙子兵法》与我国反恐策略

在防范和打击针对我国的恐怖主义活动中,《孙子兵法》中的某些思想具有重要的指导和借鉴作用。我国应以“全胜”为目标,灵活运用孙子的谋略思想,制定出符合我国实际情况的反恐策略。在国内,加强和谐社会建设,努力消除恐怖主义活动可利用的不利因素,加强针对性的预防、打击措施和应急处置体系建设,努力将恐怖主义活动消灭在萌芽状态;在国际上,继续扩展和巩固国际反恐合作,尤其是中亚地区各国的国际反恐合作,壮大国际反恐阵营。     

我国中低收入者住房金融的“信贷配给”问题与对策

中低收入者住房融资时也存在着严重的“信贷配给”问题,即商业性金融机构在开展住房金融业务中,倾向于少贷甚至不愿意贷款给中低收入者。这种现象的形成有其内在必然性,原因在于商业性金融机构在贷款给中低收入者时,由于信息不对称很难全面了解中低收入者真实的信用情况,又无有力的风险控制手段确保中低收入者不发生违约行为。为解决此问题,政府重点考虑以下方面：采取措施解决信息不对称问题、完善政策性住房金融体系以及为居民提供低利率的住房资金。     

析恐怖主义犯罪与危害国家安全犯罪——以新疆恐怖主义犯罪为例

在新疆。恐怖主义犯罪与危害国家安全犯罪行为人实施犯罪的目的基本相同。但二者在构成要件、活动特点和法律适用方面都有本质的区别．由于我国现行刑事法律关于恐怖主义犯罪罪名设置的缺陷及程序法的缺乏等原因。导致法院在审理此类案件时大多以危害国家安全罪、犯罪行为人实施的犯罪行为触碰的刑法中相关的普通刑事罪名处以刑罚。这不仅抹杀了恐怖犯罪与危害国家安全犯罪、普通刑事犯罪的界限,而且导致我们在寻求国际刑事司法协助时遇到障碍。因此。厘清恐怖主义犯罪与危害国家安全犯罪的界限是准确、有效打击恐怖主义犯罪的前提。