Abe's Fall: Leadership and Expectations in Japanese Politics

On becoming prime minister in 2006, Abe Shinzō was feted as the ‘prince’ of Japanese politics. A year later, Abe's Liberal Democratic Party had suffered a major electoral defeat and Abe's time as his country's leader was over. As a study of political leadership, this article seeks to explain the leadership outcomes of Abe's brief prime ministership, in particular the dramatic fall in public support Abe suffered during his tenure. It is argued that, despite the difficult circumstances Abe faced, the nature of his political demise cannot be fully accounted for by structural factors alone. It is also necessary to understand the role played by Abe himself and, in particular, his flawed leadership strategy. In the end, Abe's political demise followed a basic logic: high expectations followed by disillusionment characterised by sudden plunges in approval—a tragedy of hubris leading to nemesis.     

Book Reviews

Abstract

Underground movements in a struggle for political independence experience processes of crystallization as well as schism. Many times, severe struggles develop in these groups and focus on issues of leadership, operations, and ideology. The success of these movements in achieving their explicit goals depends on their ability to develop an effective mechanism(s) for inner conflict(s) resolution(s). Such inner conflicts and tensions can change, in the most profound way, the way an underground movement Junctions, its ability to attract and recruit new members, and its survivability. Lehi was one of the three prestate Jewish underground groups in Palestine (the two others were the Hagana and Etzel), struggling against the British and the Arabs with the explicit goal of establishing a new Jewish state. Lehi was established in the summer of 1940 and, in the autumn and winter of 1942, was already in an advanced stage of disintegration due to the British success in arresting or killing most of its members and leadership. In the summer of 1942, two leaders of Lehi—Itzhak Yazernitzky‐Shamir and Eliahu Giladi—escaped from the British detention camp in Mazra and revived Lehi. During 1942, a severe conflict developed between these two leaders, focusing on issues of leadership, operations, and ideology. Consequently, Shamir instructed his men to kill Giladi, who was assassinated in the summer of 1943. This paper traces the development of this conflict in a political and historical context and examines the consequences of the assassination. The main conclusion is that the death of Giladi had a major impact on the reemerging Lehi.     

苏俄、共产国际与中国国民党关系问题研究综述

近年来,随着《共产国际、联共(布)与中国革命档案丛书》以及中国国民党方面资料的问世,苏俄、共产国际与中国国民党交往的部分史料得以公开,伴随着国民党问题研究热潮的出现,苏俄、共产国际与中国国民党关系问题也逐渐成为众多学者关注和研究的新重点。这方面研究经历了由浅及深的转变:对涉及这一问题的历史人物的研究,对苏俄、共产国际与中国革命关系史的研究,对苏俄、共产国际与中国国民党关系史的专题性研究。     

Remarks

This study analyzes the ways in which the issue (or issues) of religion and politics were shaped during the 1984 campaign partially by the exigencies of political rhetoric and partially by the logic of the problem itself. The form in which the issue(s) of religion and politics came into view is traced in four addresses: one each by President Reagan, Walter Mondale, Senator Edward Kennedy, and Governor Mario Cuomo. One premise of this study is that such political speeches are in some sense and to some extent rational discourse aimed at persuading the unpersuaded that the speakers’ moral, political, and constitutional perceptions are cognitively superior to opposing perceptions. The author finds two substantive issues in the argument: the “toleration/church and state” issue and the “relation of Catholic moral principles and public policy” issue. The manner in which the speakers defend their position on these issues is explicated so as to reveal the strengths and weaknesses in each speaker's formulation. The limits of the accuracy of each side's rhetoric are identified in such a way that it becomes evident they are debating importantly different interpretations of principles on which they nominally agree. It is argued that the core of the debate concerned whether religious citizens have a right to try to change the drift towards an exclusion of religious traditions and practices and of religiously based moral values from a place in our public policy or whether such exclusion is required constitutionally and hence attempts to change its attack or undermine the Constitution.     

The party choice set and satisfaction with democracy

A well-functioning democracy requires citizens’ support for its political institutions and procedures. While scholars have previously studied the role of contextual factors for explaining satisfaction with democracy, a rigorous focus on how the party choice set affects how satisfied citizens are with democracy is largely absent from the literature. This neglect of the impact of parties is surprising, given their central position within modern, representative democracies. In this article, a comprehensive and comparative analysis of the impact of party systems on citizens’ satisfaction with democracy is presented. Use is made of the combined data of the first four modules of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems project and various measures of the party system are used to capture different aspects of the party choice set: the number of parties, their polarisation, and the congruence between public opinion and the party offer. In contrast to expectations, only scant evidence is found that having a wider choice increases citizens’ satisfaction with democracy.     

Party system nationalization,presidential coalitions,and government spending

This paper argues that there is a strong relationship between geographical patterns of political parties' electoral performance and the composition of central government expenditures. When party system nationalization is high, the composition of spending will focus more on non-targetable expenditures, while targetable expenditures increase as the party system distribution of votes across different districts becomes less homogenous. However, the effect of party nationalization on spending type is conditioned by the size of the presidential coalition; targeted transfers will increase if the coalition size decreases, even if party nationalization is high. I find support for these hypotheses with an empirical analysis of district-level electoral and government expenditure data for several countries in Latin America between 1990 and 2006.     

Vote-earning strategies in flexible list systems: Seats at the price of unity

In theory, flexible list systems are a compromise between closed-list and open-list proportional representation. A party's list of candidates can be reordered by voters if the number of votes cast for an individual candidate exceeds some quota. Because these barriers to reordering are rarely overcome, these systems are often characterized as basically closed-list systems. Paradoxically, in many cases, candidates are increasingly earning individual-level preference votes. Using data from Slovakia, we show that incumbents cultivate personal reputations because parties reward preference vote earning candidates with better pre-election list positions in the future. Ironically, the party's vote-earning strategy comes at a price, as incumbents use voting against the party on the chamber floor to generate the reputations that garner preference votes.     

Multilateral CBMs on the Korean Peninsula: Making a virtue out of necessity

Abstract

As its economy has become near to collapse, North Korea has tried to avoid direct contacts with South Korea because of the ‘absorption phobia’. Instead, the North has made continuous efforts to improve its relations only with the United States, seeking a guarantee for its survival. Given this circumstance, this paper argues that useful multilateral approaches such as KEDO and Four‐Party Talks will contribute to improving inter‐Korean relations. Thus, it would be sensible to explore every possible way (even through multilateral mechanisms) until both Koreas make a breakthrough for the deadlocked inter‐Korean CBMs. But the multilateral CBMs constitute a transitional and complementary role as South and North Korea should be primarily responsible for addressing major problems such as reunification. Among the multilateral approaches, the Four‐Party Talks will be a most useful mechanism which will enable the two Koreas to resume dialogue for the peace and reunification on the Korean Peninsula. In this peace process, more positive roles of major powers are also requested.     

民办高校学生党建工作探赜

民办高校学生党建工作是关系到能否全面贯彻党的教育方针,坚持社会主义办学方向,培养德智体美全面发展合格人才的根本性问题。民办高校学生的特殊性决定了学生党建工作的特殊性和难度。我们积极探索民办高校学生入党积极分子的培养、教育途径和模式,夯实学生党员发展基础,将学生党建工作与思想政治教育有机结合,促进了学生健康成长和全面发展。     

社会主义核心价值体系在文化产品中的实现途径探析

文化产品代表着当代经济文化一体化的客观趋势,正在成为表达和传递社会主义核心价值体系的强大文化载体。在学理上以抓牢党的文化领导权为前提、以文化产品的内容构建为核心、以提高受众基本文化素养为依托,深入挖掘文化产品实现社会主义核心价值体系的现代生产方式和传播方式,探索、拓宽文化产品实现社会主义核心价值体系的各项具体实践途径,是我们卓有成效地推进社会主义核心价值体系建设、开展社会主义核心价值体系教育的重要工作。