第一代独生子女婚姻生育选择及对未来人口和家庭结构的影响——兼与庄渝霞商榷生育政策调整的可行性

随着第一代独生子女进入婚育年龄,产生大量的双独家庭、单独家庭,不同家庭类型的变化将引起政策生育率自然回升,如果考虑到有部分家庭放弃生育二孩,则意愿生育率会低于政策生育率。本文从独生子女婚育选择的角度出发,使用相关调查数据分析,发现由双独家庭所产生"4-2-1"家庭的数目受政策微调生育的影响较小,政策微调可以大幅度降低一孩家庭的比例,二孩家庭比例的增加无疑会降低家庭风险,且不会大规模地增加出生人口数量,因此,中国应当对生育政策进行微调,增强人口结构的合理性。     

青年的政策觉识与支持老年父母的关系:一项香港与上海的比较研究

这项研究探讨香港与上海两地青年的公共政策或社会责任、子孙或家庭责任、个人责任的觉识对其照顾、接纳和承担照顾父母的意愿的效应.研究结果显示:(1)对政府或社会的养老政策责任的觉识愈高者则照顾父母的意愿明显地愈高;然而,对老年人的自立生活具愈高的觉识者,其照顾父母的意愿却愈低;(2)对倡导尊敬老年人的觉识愈高和对老年人的自立生活的觉识愈低者,其接纳照顾父母的意愿愈高;(3)对政府责任的觉识愈高者和对个人责任的觉识愈低者,其承担照顾父母的意愿愈高.文章同时就倡导两地照顾或供养父母的政策启示进行讨论.     

Conditioned Networking: Swiss–EU Relations in Transport

This article addresses the structural characteristics of the interactions between Switzerland and the EU in the transport sector, i.e. transport by air and land. More precisely, it is focused on two different aspects of this relationship: first the modes of coordination between Switzerland and the EU according to the concept of external governance and, second, those conditions that make inclusive patterns of interaction more likely. The central finding of this case study is an expansion of both the regulatory and organisational boundary in both cases. This shift finds expression in the incorporation of Swiss actors into a variety of networks that, at least in some cases, allow Swiss actors to shape EU policy making. The actual patterns of interaction are influenced by a number of factors, including the type of governance inside the EU that facilitates the inclusion of third parties in EU external governance and the problem structure that is characterized by coordination rather than enforcement problems.     

Islamophobic conspiracism and neoliberal subjectivity: the inassimilable society

O’Donnell analyses the confluence of Islamophobia and anti-government conspiracy theory in the works of the far-right think tank, the Center for Security Policy (CSP). He argues that, rather than only being a contemporary form of the religious and racialized demonologies that code ‘Islam’ as being the constitutive outside of ‘the ‘West—irrational, religious and authoritarian versus rational, secular and democratic—Islamophobic conspiracism should also be examined in the context of anxieties over the erosion of personal and state sovereignty under neoliberalization. Mobilizing an Islamophobic demonology that constructs ‘Muslims’ as inassimilable to ‘American’ subjectivity, the CSP's Islamophobic conspiracism projects this construction of absolute alterity on to American social and state systems. In doing so, O’Donnell contends, Islamophobic conspiracism takes neoliberalization's estrangement of the state and its citizens to its logical conclusion, transfiguring the societal processes that impact on the freedom of the individual—notably the state and civil society—into something inassimilable to that individual's claims to self-ownership and self-mastery.     

Administrative reform assistance and democracy promotion: exploring the democratic substance of the EU’s public administration reform principles for the neighbourhood countries

International donors, particularly the European Union (EU), vehemently endorse institution-building and public administration reform (PAR) in their work on democracy support. Still, the linkages between externally sponsored reform and advancement of democratic governance in beneficiary countries constitute a blind spot in our understanding of democratization. This article contributes to examining this relationship by exploring the democratic substance of the EU’s PAR portfolio for the neighbourhood countries. The aim of the article is to focus attention on the PA–democracy interface in the study of democracy promotion by elaborating a conceptual framework for exploring the nature of externally supported administrative reforms and the substantive content of democracy being advanced. By using the OECD/SIGMA’s (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/Support for Improvement in Governance and Management) PAR framework for the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) countries as a case study, this article demonstrates how the EU’s approach to programming PAR accommodates elements from several formats of democratic governance while the conceptualization of the democratic effects of the PAR principles remains vague. The article concludes by highlighting the need for closer examination of the potentials and limits of external PAR strategies in democracy support, and for attuning the EU’s PAR design to its democratic implications.     

Public support for coercive diplomacy: Exploring public opinion data from ten European countries

Scholarship has increasingly acknowledged the importance of public attitudes for shaping the European Union's Common Foreign and Security Policy. Economic sanctions emerged as one of CFSP's central tools. Yet despite the emergence of sanctions as a popular instrument in the EU foreign policy toolbox, public attitudes towards sanctions are yet to be studied in depth. This article explains public support for EU sanctions, using the empirical example of sanctions against Russia. It looks at geopolitical attitudes, economic motivations and ideational factors to explain the variation in public support for sanctions. The conclusion suggests that geopolitical factors are the most important, and that economic factors matter very little. Euroscepticism and anti‐Americanism play an important role in explaining the support for sanctions at the individual level.     

Measuring Policy Success: Evaluating Public Sector Reform in Bhutan

There has been resurgence in evaluation of policy, reflected mostly by an increase in ex ante studies. Although there is a shift towards ex post evaluation, this has been gradual, resulting in a paucity of ex post evaluation literature. To address this gap, we apply a revisionist approach to evaluate a major public sector reform in the Bhutanese civil service. We conclude that it provides a more holistic approach for ex post evaluation policy, and also a more nuanced evaluation which moves us beyond the narrow binary view of success or failure in reform.     

The changing dynamics of policy experiment in Singapore: does the 2011 general election make a difference?

The city-state of Singapore is proactive in harnessing policy experimentation to incubate innovations, transfer knowledge and facilitate collaborations across different public sectors. Given the country’s strong knack for pragmatism, international practices and lessons are usually first tested and adapted in policy experiments before scaling up to nationwide policies. Singapore’s practice of policy experimentation, however, has also demonstrated evolution over time. This article reviews the evolving role of experimentation in Singapore’s policy decision-making and implementation, and analyses pilot programmes in public housing to elicit the key attributes and commonalities of its policy experiments. It finds that policy experiments have been increasingly used after the 2011 general election, which witnessed a radical political rebalancing in Singapore’s governance history. Pilot projects have thus transformed from a utilitarian to citizen-centric, design-thinking approach after 2011. Pilot programmes are used for multiple purposes in policy innovations, among which civil service mentoring, knowledge transfer and cross-boundary collaboration are the values primarily pursued. The article discusses the contributions of the findings to the literature and policy implications for practitioners.     

当代中国政策议程创建模式嬗变分析

政策议程的研究在当前学术界引起了越来越多的关注,但是已有的研究成果表明,这些理论范式较多地从即时的视阈对政策议程的创建过程进行解释,而缺少历时向度的考察与对比研究,因而只能对某一具体的社会问题如何进入政策议程进行个案式的说明,而不能归纳和概括一个特定时期政策议程创建活动的总体特征和一般规律,当然也就难以从宏观层面对不同时期的议程建构模式进行纵向比较分析。因此,推进研究的深入发展亟需将个案式的解释模型上升为一般化的分析框架,通过对不同历史时期的创建活动进行动态化的梳理和比较,实现由单一向度的分析视角向"立体化"、多维度的研究方向转变。基于这一思考,以探究政策议程创建活动的"情境转换"与"过程变迁"及其内在联系为主旨,以政策议程创建模式为分析单元,提出了体制-过程模型,并以此为工具,以改革开放以来不同历史阶段的政策议程创建活动为考察对象,通过对三种政策议程创建模式的特征、过程及其背景的比较分析,力图在探究我国三十年间政策议程创建模式演进的一般规律的基础上对体制-过程模型的应用进行说明和验证。     

养老社会保险制度的反贫困分析——美国的实践及对我国的启示

在不同的社会保障制度模式下,养老社会保险的反贫困功能不一样。不同的养老社会保险制度设计会影响其反贫困功能的发挥。美国的公共养老保险制度——"老年人、遗属和残疾人保险(OASDI)"在计发办法上的累退倾向,在受益对象上不限于退休者本人还包括配偶、遗属和残疾人,在实际给付时关于受益类型、课税、最低和最高收益、随生活成本进行调整等政策规定,对于低收入者保护倾向非常明显。与美国相比,我国目前的养老社会保险存在覆盖面窄、水平偏高,受益水平差异偏大,缺乏不同的受益类型设计等问题。为推动多层次养老保障体系建设,我国养老社会保险制度改革的政策取向应该是降低现有受益水平,扩大覆盖面,并通过覆盖更多的低收入者来增强制度的反贫困效果。同时评估和改革个人账户,以防止养老金差异过大。