Iran and Turkey: not quite enemies but less than friends

The rise and subsequent erosion of friendly relations between Iran and Turkey was a result of their regional ambitions. While Turkey had long seen its secular system as presenting an alternative to Iran’s Islamic ideology, the alignment of their regional interests facilitated a rapport between the two states in the first decade of the twenty-first century. However, the Arab Spring proved divisive for this relationship as each state sought to advocate its model of government and secure a leadership role in the Arab world. The war in Syria widened the divide, as Iran’s long-standing support for the Bashar al-Assad regime could not be reconciled with Turkey’s desire to see President Assad out of office. Using a close reading of Persian and Turkish sources, the authors will analyse the Iran–Turkey divide, focusing specifically on how the Iranians have portrayed it as a clash of civilisations, citing Turkey’s so-called ‘neo-Ottoman’ ambitions as the primary cause.     

A political settlements lens onto Egypt’s critical junctures and cyclic violence (2011–2014)

Abstract

While there is a copious body of literature explaining Egypt’s political trajectory post-Mubarak through the lens of democratisation and transition theory, this paper argues that by using a political settlements lens, a less linear reading of the events can be offered, which highlights several attempts through both peaceful and violent means of arriving at negotiated agreements. The paper analyses the forging of three political settlements, one informal (2011) and two formal (2012, 2013) following the demise of the Mubarak regime in Egypt and the influence of intrinsic, instrumental and resultant violence on power configurations. It argues that the formal political settlement forged in Egypt in 2013 following the ousting of President Morsi cannot be read independently of the exclusionary outcomes of the informal political settlement forged in 2011 and the demise of the Fairmont Agreement of 2012. The paper relies on empirical data, including survey and focus groups undertaken in 2013–2014, complemented with secondary literature in Arabic and English.     

“Most MPs are Not All that Sharp.” Political Employees and Representative Democracy

The article analyses the orientations of political employees in Sweden. It finds that their roles are diffuse: there is no agreement among political employees about whether they are politicians or not, and their mandate is fleeting and unclear. They hold the average politician’s intellectual abilities in low regard, and sometimes take on clearly paternalistic views toward elected representatives. They see little attraction in pursuing a career as elected politicians, because of intrusive media scrutiny and since they hold a view of elected politics as slow, boring, and shallow. The professional route to politics is seen as more fast and fun.     

Taiwan in the Caribbean: a case study in state de-recognition

The rich and complex recent International Political Sociology (IPS) literature on state recognition has completely ignored the process of de-recognition. The present article uses the case study of Taiwan’s efforts to preserve its ‘diplomatic allies’ in the Caribbean in order to fill this gap. Taking advantage of the IPS development of the constitutive theory of recognition, it introduces and analyses the concept of state de-recognition while emphasizing the deep contradiction between present international law principles and the political reality of national identity building as well as the de-linking of political science and international law understandings of recognition made possible by the progress of the constitutive theory. De-recognition is perceived as resulting in a hierarchical relationship between recognized and de-recognized political entities that is arbitrary and ethically questionable as it ultimately reflects the denial of the right to self-determination of peoples.     

Comparative grand corruption and protection pacts among elites: the cases of Ao Man Long in Macao and Hui Si-Yan in Hong Kong

Although Transparency International has consistently ranked the governments of both the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) and Macao Special Administrative Region (MSAR), both under the sovereignty of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), much higher on the clean governance scale than the PRC itself, the reality is that the two special administrative regions witnessed two prominent cases of political corruption comparable to the mainland corruption. These were the Ao Man Long case in Macao and the Rafael Hui Si-yan scandal in Hong Kong. This paper examines the two cases of political corruption in both Macao and Hong Kong and makes comparisons and contrasts between them. It argues that individual greed contributed to the two cases of high-level bureaucratic (grand) corruption in Macao and Hong Kong, implying that institutional safeguards against corruption, such as the establishment of anti-corruption commissions, and the scrutiny of the mass media, are by no means adequate. In other words, institutional mechanisms against corruption in the HKSAR and MSAR do have loopholes that need to be plugged. Moreover, protection pacts between a minority of government officials and the business elites can be formed because of their close personal connections, strengthening the possibility of grand corruption.     

Direct Democracy and Political Trust: Enhancing Trust,Initiating Distrust–or Both?

This study investigates the relationship between direct democracy and political trust. We suggest a solution to the controversy in research centering on positive versus negative effects of direct democracy by analytically differentiating between the availability of direct democratic rights and the actual use of those rights. Theoretically, greater availability of direct democratic rights may enhance political trust by increasing citizens' perception that political authorities can be controlled as well as by incentivizing political authorities to act trustworthily. In contrast, the actual use of the corresponding direct democratic instruments may initiate distrust as it signals to citizens that political authorities do not act in the public's interest. We test both hypotheses for the very first time with sub‐national data of Switzerland. The empirical results seem to support our theoretical arguments.     

印尼华人与2014 年印尼大选

1998年以来印尼华人积极参政,至今已成为印尼政治发展的一股重要力量。2014年印尼大选,华人选民受到印尼主要政党的高度重视,不仅纷纷派出华人候选人,个别政党还邀请华人搭档竞选总统副总统。华人积极参与国会选举,成绩显著,广大华人选民倾力支持的佐科维成功当选总统,凸显了华人选票的影响力。在印尼不断推进政治民主和族群和谐的大环境中,印尼华人参政的良好势头,将持续发展。     

台湾的大学生对《两岸服务贸易协议》的看法

2014年3月18日,台湾的学生以及社会团体因为反对两岸服贸协议,进而占领“立法院”,并发起一连串的示威与抗议活动。本研究运用定群追踪数据,以网络民调方式访问台湾地区大三的学生对两岸服贸协议的看法。初步发现：大学生对于服贸协议的态度,受到其政党倾向、统“独”立场以及“台湾人认同”的影响。不过,本研究运用政治情绪的测量也发现：台湾的大学生对于台湾的愤怒与对中国大陆的愤怒,让他们反对两岸服贸协议,但当他们对中国大陆抱持希望时,仍然支持两岸服贸协议。因此,中国大陆的崛起及繁荣与发展,既让台湾的大学生对于台湾的现况感到愤怒,确也对中国大陆充满憧憬。     

美国对台湾“政治安排”的政策及影响

美国对台湾“政治安排”的政策对“合情合理安排两岸政治关系”有重要影响。美国对台湾政治定位的政策是“认知到台湾是中国的一部分”,不支持“台独”或“两个中国”,但同时又“对台湾地位不持立场”。在两岸关系的解决方式方面,美国对台湾的前途持开放立场,但认为应透过对话和平解决,且要尊重两岸民众的意愿。美国这一政策增加了对统一前两岸政治关系做出“合情合理安排”的难度,但在某些方面与大陆对台政策也有一致性。目前,两岸应充分利用这些相契合的政策,推进两岸政治关系做出“合情合理”安排。     

两岸经济合作的政治效应问题探讨

推进两岸经济合作与一体化发展,形成日益紧密的经济共同体,可以巩固和深化两岸关系和平发展的经济基础,有助于推进两岸和平统一,但并非两岸和平统一的充分条件。而且,发挥两岸经济关系对两岸和平统一的促进作用需要相应的主客观条件,至少需要两岸双方的共同政治意愿与积极行动,以便在共同利益不断增进的基础上建构国家认同。民调显示,近年来的两岸经济合作,在“反独”中起到一定的积极作用,但因施行时间较短且尚未充分展开等因素而不足以证实或证伪其在“促统”方面的作用,并面临制约因素。而国家认同的形成,乃是两岸和平统一的关键。因此,必须确立正确的合作理念,坚持特定的推进原则,选择适宜的推进方式,以提升两岸经济合作的政治效应。