"稳定弧线"与普京外交战略构想

普京提出的建立“稳定弧线”构想集中体现了俄罗斯外交政策的基本精神和战略意图,其核心是突出强调国家要集中精力于国内的转轨和发展,为国内经济建设赢得时间创造良好的周边环境。在这个战略构想中,独联体集体安全组织将构成“稳定弧线”的骨架,俄罗斯与北约的关系是主要的突破方向,上海合作组织则为俄罗斯保持地区力量均衡、推动多极化提供战略依托。普京建立“稳定弧线”的对外政策能否成功,一方面,在很大程度上取决于美国的对俄政策和美国的整体外交政策,关键是俄罗斯能否获得它想从西方得到的东西;另一方面,取决于俄罗斯能否尽快摆脱危机,推动进一步的改革。     

Mediated political masculinities: the commander-in-chief vs. the new man

The media play a very influential role in our perceptions of our political leaders, irrespective of where in the world they appear. Since the latter part of the twentieth century, our leaders’ personalities came to play an increasing role in their appeal, in particularly their gendered performances. As Barack Obama's presidency draws to the end of its second term, this paper will examine the representation of his persona in the context of the election in 2008 when he became the first Black US president. Much has been written of him being the first Black president of the USA, however, if we explore his campaign through a gendered lens, we can see that he is equally revolutionary. This contrasts with the gendered construction of male political leaders in other parts of the world, particularly that of Vladimir Putin in Russia. Building on work carried out in relation to the mediatisation and personalisation of politics in the last 50 years, this article shows how gendered performances can be seen to mirror changes in society.     

The Charismatic Body Politics of President Putin

Vladimir Putin's image and brand make sophisticated, culturally embedded use of his biography, martial arts expertise, and idiolect, with his physical self strongly privileged in the modes of his self-presentation. As a politically marketable product, his public persona enjoyed broad appeal among Russian voters in the period 2000–2011, when he and his United Russia party operated in an electorally uncompetitive environment. Since the urban protests of 2011–2012, Russia's political scene has become much more dynamic. Having initially configured himself as a charismatic leader whose very body symbolized a new and confident Russia, during his third presidential term, which began in 2012, Putin finds himself facing new presentational challenges that he may or may not be equipped to meet.     

论俄罗斯经济转轨过程中政府的有效性

在俄罗斯经济转轨过程中,普京执政以来转轨顺利,经济发展迅速.这是因为普京政府在转轨方式选择上符合俄罗斯的国情与传统,经济转轨战略规划上详尽明确,政府调控上有力而适度,法制建设方面适时且到位.同时,政府的权威使得各项措施执行有力,多元思想的统一为民众对于政府决策实施的支持提供了思想保证.所有这一切使得普京政府在俄经济转轨过程中发挥了更好的作用.     

Russian and Ukrainian elites: A comparative study of different identities and alternative transitions

The deterioration in Russian-Ukrainian relations heightened in 2014 but did not begin then and has deeper roots. Both Russian presidents have had troubled relations with all five Ukrainian presidents irrespective if they were described as ‘nationalist’ or ‘pro-Russian.’ This article is the first to explain why the roots of the crisis go deeper and it does this by investigating three areas. The first is the different sources of elites in 1991 when independent Russia captured Soviet institutions and undertook top-down state building while Ukraine inherited far less and set course with bottom up state-building. The second is divergent Russian and Ukrainian national identities. The third is the resultant different transitions with Russia reverting to great power imperial nationalism and Ukraine quadruple and post-colonial transitions.     

The Euromaidan and the crisis of Russian nationalism

This article examines the reverberations in Russia of the Euromaidan protests and the fall of the Yanukovych regime in Ukraine. It shows how the events in Kyiv provoked a major crisis in the Russian nationalist movement, which was riven by vituperative denunciations, the ostracism of prominent activists, the breakdown of friendships, the rupture of alliances, and schisms within organizations. Focusing on pro-Kremlin nationalists and several tendencies of opposition nationalists, it argues that this turmoil was shaped by three factors. First, the Euromaidan provoked clashes between pro-Kremlin nationalists, who became standard-bearers of official anti-Euromaidan propaganda, and anti-Putin nationalists, who extolled the Euromaidan as a model for a revolution in Russia itself. Second, the events in Ukraine provoked ideological contention around issues of particular sensitivity to Russian nationalists, such as the competing claims of imperialism and ethnic homogeneity, and of Soviet nationalism and Russian traditionalism. And third, many nationalists were unprepared for the pace of events, which shifted rapidly from an anti-oligarchic uprising in Kyiv to a push for the self-determination of ethnic Russians in Crimean and southeast Ukraine. As a result, they were left in the uncomfortable position of appearing to collaborate with the oppressors of their compatriots.     

梅普共治开启中俄关系新时代

目前中俄两国关系发展顺利,梅德韦杰夫的访问,是对普京执政期间中俄关系基本思路和做法的重申。我们对"梅普共治"抱有极大的信心。同时,梅德韦杰夫的访问显示,中俄合作正向着更加实质化和对等的方向发展。尤其是梅德韦杰夫表示,俄中协作成为保障世界安全的关键因素,应被视为两国未来关系的新基础。与此同时,中俄之间合作领域的深度和广度在不断拓宽,这才是双方合作的更深层次表现,也是双方互信加深的集中体现。为未来几十年双赢的双边关系及持久发展打下了牢固基础,开启了两国合作的新时代。     

The limits of autocracy promotion: The case of Russia in the ‘near abroad’

In recent years, observers have raised concerns about threats to democracy posed by external support for authoritarianism coming from regional powers such as Russia, China and Venezuela. This article assesses the efficacy of autocracy promotion through a close examination of Russian efforts to shape regime outcomes in the former Soviet Union. It finds that while Russian actions have periodically promoted instability and secessionist conflict, there is little evidence that such intervention has made post‐Soviet countries less democratic than they would have been otherwise. First, the Russian government has been inconsistent in its support for autocracy – supporting opposition and greater pluralism in countries where anti‐Russian governments are in power, and incumbent autocrats in cases where pro‐Russian politicians dominate. At the same time, the Russian government's narrow concentration on its own economic and geopolitical interests has significantly limited the country's influence, fostering a strong counter‐reaction in countries with strong anti‐Russian national identities. Finally, Russia's impact on democracy in the region has been restricted by the fact that post‐Soviet countries already have weak democratic prerequisites. This analysis suggests that, despite increasingly aggressive foreign policies by autocratic regional powers, autocracy promotion does not present a particularly serious threat to democracy in the world today.     

Are today's authoritarian leaders doomed to be indicted when they leave office? The Russian and other post-Soviet cases

The attitudes of leaders toward their personal future are very important to domestic and international politics. These views are particularly vital in the case of leaders of non-democratic regimes who could face legal prosecution for their corrupt acts or violations of human rights in their own country and abroad. In spite of these fears, however, the leaders in many authoritarian societies trespass laws, both domestic and international, in order to preserve their power and enrich their families. They expose themselves to the danger of the prosecution after they leave office or lose control of the regime. In this context, the author pays special attention to Vladimir Putin's political future and to the developments in Russia, which favor and disfavor his continued stay in power after 2008.     

普京之治:俄罗斯的复兴之路

普京执政第 1任期已满 ,4年来 ,俄罗斯彻底告别了“叶利钦之乱” ,迎来了“普京之治” ,俄罗斯的转型也进入到了一个理性的政治发展周期 ;在这 4年中 ,普京逐步形成了一种“适应”俄罗斯文化性格特征的执政理念 ,确立了强力政治与自由经济相结合的治国方略 ,在政治、经济、外交等各个方面都取得了令俄国人满意的成就 ,使俄罗斯看到了振兴大国地位的希望。但是 ,俄罗斯的民主政治和市场经济仍然是不成熟的 ,要真正重振俄罗斯大国地位的目标 ,普京还面临着诸多挑战 ,俄罗斯的复兴还有待观察