Does the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle exist among South Asian countries? A regime‐switching approach

A plethora of literature has been undertaken to study the validity of the Feldstein–Horioka (FH) puzzle. However, divergent views continue to persist in the FH puzzle literature. This study explores the empirical validity of the FH puzzle in the case of South Asian countries using annual data from 1960 to 2017. Both panel data approach and Markov‐switching regression approach are used to empirically analyze the FH puzzle. The results of the cointegration test confirm the long‐run relationships between saving and investment in the selected South Asian countries. The results of Markov‐switching regression confirm that the saving‐retention coefficient has shifted from high to low values and also from low to high values. Thus, the FH puzzle exists for a particular time period and mostly depends on the regime shifts in the South Asian countries. The results of panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) methods also confirm that FH puzzle holds for the South Asian countries. Therefore, the study suggests that any saving promotion policies are desirable for enhancing investment among the South Asian regions.     

Global poverty and inequality: are the revised estimates open to an alternative interpretation?

The level of, and trends in, global inequality and global poverty are indicative assessments of who has benefited from economic growth. The revision of price data has led to a reassessment of those estimates. Through an extensive overview of the implications, we argue that the data can be read in different ways. Official estimates show global extreme poverty and global inequality are considerably lower than previously thought. We argue that these changes are much less significant than they at first appear, and we present a more nuanced alternative interpretation by exploring changes across the entire global distribution.     

公共安全生产事故的产生与防范——政企合谋视角的解析

从政企合谋视角对公共安全生产事故的产生与防范进行解析,建立了一个中央政府一地方政府一企业的三层委托代理模型,考察了公共安全生产事故产生的机理,发现中央政府在对待政企合谋问题时,主要是在公共安全生产事故被披露时所造成的社会成本和对地方政府所付出的激励报酬之间进行权衡:存在一个临界值,当公共安全生产事故被披露时所造成的社会成本较高时,中央政府应对地方政府采取激励契约;当公共安全生产事故被披露所造成的社会成本较低时,则政府对地方政府采取固定报酬契约.进一步对模型相关参数进行比较静态分析,并据此对现实中的现象给予解释:(1)中央政府反合谋力度与社会发展阶段密切相关;(2)地方政府官员绩效考核体系不完善诱发政企合谋;(3)对企业惩罚的不可信加大了中央政府的防合谋成本;(4)公众监督降低了中央政府的防合谋成本.     

西部高校毕业生求职难度影响因素的实证研究——基于社会资本、人力资本与物质资本的比较研究及其交互效应

本研究旨在考察社会资本、人力资本与物质资本及其交互变量对高校毕业生求职难度的影响。实证分析发现:社会资本、人力资本与物质资本对高校毕业生职业获得难度存在显著的影响。在搜寻成本模型中,社会资本同人力资本的交互项对高校毕业生在求职过程中的搜寻成本存在正向影响,即社会资本欠缺者,可以通过提升人力资本以降低搜寻成本;在求职结果模型中,社会资本同人力资本的交互项对高校毕业生的最终求职结果存在负向影响,即社会资本欠缺者,可以通过提升人力资本以提高求职成功的概率,从而降低求职难度。     

社会结构异质性与流动儿童社会网络的建构——以同伴关系为核心

本文以同伴关系为切入点,考察社会结构异质性因素对流动儿童社会网络建构的影响。研究发现,流动儿童在同伴关系建构过程中表现出较高的主动性,交往对象呈现外向发展特征;流动儿童的兄妹数、成绩好坏、自身生活方式以及对城市居民态度的认知对其发展同伴关系的主动性有影响;流动儿童生活体验和生活环境对其发展同伴关系对象选择有影响。本文以实证研究回应了几种相悖的研究结论:布劳的肯定性结论与国内多数学者的否定性结论,系出自不同语境,各有合理性,但某些结论也需要进一步讨论。     

企业最优资本结构及其良性循环的实现

资本结构对企业的经营至关重要,随着我国社会主义市场经济的发展和现代化企业制度的建立,企业资本结构的优化已成为现代企业筹资决策中的核心问题。     

Can We Make Accurate Long-term Predictions About Patterns of De-escalation in Offending Behavior?

This study consists of a comparative analysis of patterns of de-escalation between ages 17–18 and 32, based on data from two well-known prospective longitudinal studies, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (a study of 411 working-class males in London) and the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study (a sample of 470 adjudicated French-Canadian males). Analyses focus on within-individual change, with individuals serving as their own controls. In this regard, the magnitude of measured change is relative to the past degree of involvement in offending. These results are contrasted with predictors of between-individual differences in offending behavior at age 32. We investigate the respective roles of cognitive predispositions and social bonds in the prediction of patterns of de-escalation, and assess whether it is possible to make relatively long-term predictions (over a 15-year period) about offending in adulthood. Findings suggest that traditional measures of social bonds and cognitive predispositions measured at age 17–18 are generally weak predictors of de-escalation up to age 32. However, these measures are stronger predictors of between-individual differences in offending gravity. These findings highlight the difficulties in making accurate long-term predictions about changes in individual offending patterns early in the criminal career.

Parents, Friends, and Romantic Partners: Enmeshment in Deviant Networks and Adolescent Delinquency Involvement

Adolescent networks include parents, friends, and romantic partners, but research on the social learning mechanisms related to delinquency has not typically examined the characteristics of all three domains simultaneously. Analyses draw on data from the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (n = 957), and our analytic sample contains 51% male and 49% female as well as 69% white, 24% African-American, and 7% Latino respondents. Parents,’ peers,’ and partners’ deviance are each related to respondents’ delinquency, and affiliation with a greater number of deviant networks is associated with higher self-reported involvement. Analyses that consider enmeshment type indicate that those with both above average romantic partner and friend delinquency report especially high levels of self-reported involvement. In all comparisons, adolescents with deviant romantic partners are more delinquent than those youths with more prosocial partners, regardless of friends’ and parents’ behavior. Findings highlight the importance of capturing the adolescent’s entire network of affiliations, rather than viewing these in isolation, and suggest the need for additional research on romantic partner influences on delinquent behavior and other adolescent outcomes.

Examining Temporal Associations Between School Connectedness and Early Adolescent Adjustment

This study examined (a) the associations between school connectedness and early adolescent adjustment problems over a 1 year period and (b) the equivalence of these associations across gender. Five hundred middle school students (53.4% female), initially in the 6th and 7th grades, participated in the two-wave study. Results from two-group cross-lagged panel analyses were consistent across boys’ and girls’ data. After controlling for baseline levels of adjustment problems, school connectedness predicted lower levels of early adolescent conduct problems 1 year later. Regarding the opposite direction of associations, and even after baseline levels of school connectedness were taken into account, conduct problems predicted lower levels of subsequent school connectedness. There were no cross-lagged associations between depressive symptoms and school connectedness, although elevated levels of baseline depressive symptoms predicted higher levels of subsequent conduct problems. Findings elaborate previous research by demonstrating that early adolescents actively shape the middle school environment.

Early Adolescents’ Social Standing in Peer Groups: Behavioral Correlates of Stability and Change

Sociometric nominations, social cognitive maps, and self-report questionnaires were completed in consecutive years by 327 students (56% girls) followed longitudinally from grade 7 to grade 8 to examine the stability of social standing in peer groups and correlates of changes in social standing. Social preference, perceived popularity, network centrality, and leadership were moderately stable from grade 7 to grade 8. Alcohol use and relational aggression in grade 7 predicted changes in social preference and centrality, respectively, between grade 7 and grade 8, but these effects were moderated by gender and ethnicity. Changes in social standing from grade 7 to grade 8 were unrelated to grade 8 physical aggression, relational aggression, and alcohol use after controlling for the grade 7 corollaries of these behaviors. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for understanding links between social standing and problem behaviors during adolescence.