中菲南海争端仲裁庭的法律问题

菲律宾无视它与中国之间《南海各方行为宣言》的存在与有效性,以变相的岛礁主权争端和海洋划界争端的方式,单方面提起南海争端强制仲裁。虽然此举不符合《联合国海洋法公约》（以下简称《公约》）规定的条件,但并不意味着菲律宾启动该程序具有非法性。即使中国不接受该仲裁和不参与仲裁程序,也不影响中菲仲裁庭的合法成立及其程序的合法性与对中国不利裁决的有效性。因此,对待仲裁庭的后续书面程序和口诉程序,中国是维持现行政策还是重新参与,是值得重新评估的一个问题。重新参与后续程序应该是中国的一个适当政策选择。因为参与所面临的最大挑战——南海“断续线”的法律地位——可以通过反驳《公约》对之不适用从而避免澄清其地位的棘手问题。更重要的是,依据“南方蓝鳍金枪鱼案”仲裁庭的推理与裁决和中国2006年声明以及国际海洋划界与外大陆架划界案例,《南海各方行为宣言》属于《公约》第281条第1款中排除附件7强制仲裁的“协议”,菲律宾的大部分实体请求属于不可裁决事项,因而仲裁庭应该裁定对本争端无管辖权或不可受理。即使中国继续奉行不参与政策,也不应该无所作为。中国可以采取“间接参与”的方式,在仲裁庭开始书面程序后,公开发表一份正式书面文件,以全面反对菲律宾提起仲裁和反对仲裁庭对争端的管辖权和可受理性。     

Application of Cameriere’s method for dental age estimation in children in South China

The aim of this study was to evaluate the applicability of Cameriere’s European formula for age estimation in children in South China and to adapt the formula to establish a more suitable formula for these children. Moreover, the performance of dental age estimation based on Cameriere’s method combining the developmental information of permanent teeth (PT) and third molar (TM) was also analysed. Orthopantomographs of 720 healthy children in Group A, and orthopantomographs of 320 children and 280 subadults in Group B were assessed. The samples of Group A were divided into training dataset 1 and test dataset 1, and the samples of Group B were also divided into training dataset 2 and test dataset 2. A South China-specific formula was established based on the training dataset 1, and the comparison of accuracy between the Cameriere’s European formula and the South China-specific formula was conducted with the test dataset 1. Additionally, a PT regression model, a TM regression model, and a combined regression model (PT + TM) were established based on the training dataset 2, and the performance of these three models were validated on the test dataset 2. The Cameriere’s European formula underestimated chronological age with a mean difference (ME) of −0.47 ± 1.11 years in males and −0.69 ± 1.19 years in females. However, the South China-specific formula underestimated chronological age, with a mean difference (ME) of −0.02 ± 0.71 years in males and −0.14 ± 0.73 years in females. Compared with PT model and TM model, the PT and TM combined model obtained the smallest root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.29 years in males and 0.93 years in females. In conclusion, the South China-specific formula was more suitable for assessing the dental age of children in South China, and the PT and TM combined model can improve the accuracy of dental age estimation in children.

Key points

• Orthopantomographs of 720 healthy children in Group A, and orthopantomographs of 320 children and 280 subadults in Group B were assessed.
• A South China-specific formula was established based on the training dataset 1, and the comparison of accuracy between the Cameriere’s European formula and the South China-specific formula was conducted with the test dataset 1.
• A PT regression model, a TM regression model, and a combined regression model (PT + TM) were established based on the training dataset 2, and the performance of these three models were validated on the test dataset 2.
• The South China-specific formula was more suitable for assessing the dental age of children in South China, and the PT and TM combined model can improve the accuracy of dental age estimation in children.

     

建交以来中韩文学交流的回顾与展望

自1992年建交以来,中韩两国在政治、经济、文化等各方面的交流合作发展非常迅速,以作家为主导的两国文学交流,也得到迅猛发展。本文对中韩建交以来文学交流的相关情况做了一些总结和梳理,分析交流的动因和优势,探寻获得的成果和存在的问题,并对今后发展趋势做一些展望,希望对未来两国的文学交流与合作有所促进。     

“独特机遇论”:中国梦乘外部优势启航

中国梦的实现需要内外部的共同合力。"独特机遇论"乘势助力中国梦的发展。中共在南方谈话中进一步明确了中国继续推进深化改革,扩大对外开放的政策。而"独特机遇论"的提出是对海外关系的正确定位和对丰富的海外资源的运用和涵养。主要包括四个方面:海外关系的开放是改革开放的首要内容,为中国的改革开放和科学发展打开了走向世界的大门,促进了"全方位、多角度、宽领域"的对外开放格局的形成,大大丰富了社会主义市场经济的内涵。在经济全球化背景下,必须坚持"以侨为本"理念,保障和涵养海外资源的可持续发展。     

Transnational governance of cybersecurity: policy challenges and global inequalities in cyber capacity building

Abstract

Connectivity infrastructure is constantly expanding, increasing internet access across countries, regions and socio-political contexts. Given the fast-changing geography of the internet, there is a growing demand to strengthen cyber capacity beyond national frameworks, in order to develop a transnationally coherent and coordinated governance approach to cybersecurity. In this context, cyber capacity building initiatives are increasingly central in international debates, with the ambition to support countries in the Global South in fostering their cybersecurity strategy from technical and policy perspectives. This article discusses the key factors explaining states’ efforts to enhance their cyber capacity. Based on a cross-national quantitative research approach, the findings contradict international relations (IR)-derived approaches to cybersecurity, which assume that countries develop their cyber capacity according to external security threats, domestic politics or norms. In line with existing research on the role that science plays in policymaking processes more broadly, our results suggest instead that a country’s science and technical knowledge is the most robust explanation for that state’s cyber capacity level. These findings emphasise the need for policymakers to support countries in the Global South in developing their cyber capacity beyond national security paradigms by strengthening education and technical skills in contexts lacking in this resource.     

Forging a Resilient Social Contract in South Africa: States and Societies Sustaining Peace in the Post-Apartheid Era

ABSTRACT

Since the advent of democracy in the 1990s, the South African political settlement has ushered into policy a progressive framework for the realization of socio-economic rights, enshrined by the Constitution. However, this political settlement has failed to translate into an economic and social settlement that results in just livelihood strategies and equitable service delivery that addresses historical grievances. Inadequate implementation of socio-economic policies designed to address injustice has contributed to weakening vertical cohesion between state and society. Analysing these two core conflict issues, access to service delivery and livelihood strategies, this article argues that the interaction of the political settlement and the ability of institutions to deliver effectively has negatively affected state-society relations and the legitimacy of the reconciliation agenda meant to support inter-group cohesion.     

Genetic landscape of the mitochondrial DNA control region in South African populations

A high-quality dataset of the mitochondrial DNA control region sequences was generated with Sanger and next-generation sequencing. The study was aimed at characterizing the maternal genetic ancestry and analyzing the haplogroup distribution of 246 individuals residing in South Africa. The study presents mtDNA sequences in South Africa for forensic applications.     

India’s Surgical Strikes: Response to Strategic Imperatives

ABSTRACT

In September 2016, militants who were allegedly backed by Pakistan attacked an Indian Army camp in Uri. The government in New Delhi was facing important regional elections. It faced intense public pressure to muster a military response. Such a response, however, ran the risk of triggering a nuclear exchange. Ten days after the Uri attack, India reported that it had carried out ‘surgical strikes’ on terrorist training camps in Pakistan-controlled territory. The paper examines this specific episode in India–Pakistan deterrence dynamics, focusing on the nomenclature ‘surgical strikes’. The paper argues that the choice of the term itself is new and worthy of investigation. Using qualitative content analysis of the official announcement of the operation, it identifies specific rhetorical moves by the Indian government that framed the response as a surgical strike. The paper also considers other statements in the media by high-ranking political and military leaders regarding the strikes, and the reception of these statements by the Indian audience, by Pakistan, and by the international community. The concluding section sounds a note of caution about future iterations of so-called surgical strikes. While the term ‘surgical strike’ can be useful in some circumstances, it produces destabilising outcomes in others.     

China's dual strategy of coercion and inducement towards ASEAN

ABSTRACT

This article contributes to the discussion about China's divisive influence on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It argues that recent China–ASEAN relations are based on Beijing's successful implementation of a dual strategy of coercion and inducement. The effectiveness of this strategy is tested against the South China Sea disputes – the issue that lies in the core of regional security and a key platform of power display. The article outlines Beijing's recent interaction with individual ASEAN member-states and its implications for the regional multilateral diplomacy. While by no means identical, Beijing's dual strategy of coercion and inducement with individual ASEAN states have resulted in an effective abuse of the ASEAN consensus principle – a tactic often referred to as ‘divide and rule’. Consequently, the group's internal discord has further eroded and affected the institutional confidence of ASEAN. This article draws attention to the psychological effect of coercion as a perception of punishment, and inducement as a perception of reward.     

Protecting cultural heritage in war zones

In the throes of war, protecting such cultural heritage as the Bamiyan Buddhas, the Mostar Bridge, the Timbuktu libraries and Palmyra supposedly is a priority on the international public policy agenda; but government responses so far have been limited to deploring such destruction. This article explores the evolving, albeit contested, norm of the ‘responsibility to protect’ (R2P) and its relevance for cultural heritage. There is no need for a hierarchy of protection – civilians or culture – because the juxtaposition is as erroneous as choosing between people and the environment. This essay begins with a discussion of cultural heritage and defines the scope for the application of any new international normative consensus. It then explores why R2P, in the original concept of the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty (ICISS), is an appropriate framework for thinking about cultural protection, despite considerable political headwinds. It then examines the current opportune political moment and existing legal tools. Finally, there is a brief consideration of the obstacles facing the creation of a better framework for cultural protection in zones of armed conflict.