ESCAPING CRIME: THE EFFECTS OF DIRECT AND INDIRECT VICTIMIZATION ON MOVING*

This article investigates the impact of criminal victimization on household residential mobility. Existing research finds that direct experiences with crime influence mobility decisions, such that persons who suffer offenses near their homes are more likely to move. The current study extends this line of inquiry to consider whether indirect victimization that involves neighbors also stimulates moving. The analysis uses the National Crime Survey to estimate multilevel models that incorporate data from individual households and their spatially proximate neighbors. The results show that the link between direct victimization and moving continues to hold after controlling for neighborhood context. Indirect property victimization also leads to moving, with effects about equal in size to those of direct victimization. In contrast, no evidence is found that violent victimization that occurs in neighboring homes influences mobility, probably because most of these events are nonstranger violence that provokes less anxiety for neighbors.     

知识产权诉讼证据问题研究

知识产权法律中对证据的规定比较少，供法官直接运用的证据法律规范则更少。作为诉讼核心问题的诉讼证据问题理应引起足够的关注。而知识产权的证据问题又有其特殊性。积极开展这方面的理论与实务研究。对于提高知识产权审判工作水平具有重要意义。     

一座新的宫殿——《欧陆法律史概览:事件、渊源、人物及运动》译余剩语

《欧陆法律史概览:事件、渊源、人物及运动》是美国法学院协会"大陆法史系列丛书"中的第一卷。此书除第一编、第九编外,其他七编均以国别为经,又以各国法律发展中的主要时期为纬,描述各国法律发展中的几大要素,即事件、渊源、人物及运动。在很大程度上,它不仅是一部介绍欧陆各国(不包括斯拉夫法系、拜占庭法系及匈牙利法系)法制史概况的书籍,还是一部法学史作品。意大利法、瑞士法、斯堪的那维亚法及西班牙法等内容研究角度别致,内容新颖。本书的用功最勤之处,不在于它的理论建构,而在于其正本清源,旨在说明什么是真的法律史。法学译著应该注意主要遵循"名从主人"、"约定俗成"、"服从主科"和"尊重规范"等翻译原则。     

云南省德宏州毒品犯罪及禁毒情况调查报告

云南省德宏州毗邻毒品产地“金三角”,是境外毒品渗透我国的主要通道。近年来,全国缴获的毒品四分之一来自德宏。二十多年来,德宏州克服困难,多方努力,采取有力措施,在打击遏制毒品犯罪方面取得了明显成效,但还存在一些不足和薄弱环节。本调研报告试图通过对德宏州的个案研究,对我国今后的禁毒工作提出建议:即打击与预防相结合;司法控制与社会控制相结合;整合社会各种力量打一场全方位的禁毒人民战争;禁毒宣传教育要分层次分重点,因地制宜、因人而异,实现民族化、地方化。     

立案监督实践调查分析

通过对我院五年来立案监督实践进行调查研究,发现在行使监督权过程中主要面临的＂一多一少、一大一小、一高一低＂六大问题,为进一步加强立案监督工作,我们研究出解决问题的方法和对策,用于指导实践。     

Class,Politics and the Progressive Dilemma

This article considers contemporary class inequalities and how they might shape a progressive politics in the UK. Drawing on findings from the BBC Class Survey, it outlines changes in the class structure, class mobility and class identities. It is argued that the class structure is increasingly polarised and fragmented, with a wealthy elite, a vulnerable precariat and fragmented middle and working classes in between. Declining upward social mobility is a source of anxiety for middle‐class and working‐class parents alike. Class identification, especially working‐class identification, has weakened over time, although class snobbery is far from dead. Class has changed and the class basis of politics is changing now too. A progressive politics is possible if the political parties of the centre‐left appeal to the majority of the electorate rather than one class, acknowledge common concerns and worries and appeal to shared hopes and dreams that straddle class boundaries.     

The accountability effect of endorsements: A survey experiment

Do endorsements from incumbent politicians to co-partisans lead to more electoral accountability for the performance of the government? I use a randomized experiment embedded in a national survey conducted before the 2012 Mexican general election to examine the effect of endorsements by the outgoing president Felipe Calderón to the Senate candidates of his Partido Acción Nacional (PAN). Results show that among PAN identifiers, the incumbent vote is more tightly linked to the performance of the president when voters are exposed to the endorsement. I improve on the current standing of the accountability literature by showing that the relationship between an outgoing politician and the candidates of her party matters for electoral sanctioning. My findings imply that politicians’ strategic decisions have an effect on how voters assign responsibility: By nominating candidates without close ties to the endorser in cases of weak government performance, parties can use nominations strategically to diffuse responsibility.     

Tremors but no Youthquake: Measuring changes in the age and turnout gradients at the 2015 and 2017 British general elections

In the aftermath of the 2017 UK General Election, some claimed that Labour performed unexpectedly well because of a surge in youth turnout. Polling estimates for the size of this ‘youthquake’ ranged from 12 to 21 points amongst 18–24 year olds. Using conventional and Bayesian statistical methods, we analyse British Election Study and British Social Attitudes random probability surveys and find no evidence of a shift in the relationship between age and turnout of this scale. Using the pooled BES and BSA reported turnout data with an informative prior that there was a modest increase in 18–24 turnout (N{6, 3}), our 95% credible interval for that change is between 0.9 and 8.8 points. Even with a strong youthquake prior (N{15.5, 3.5}), our data suggest that there is only a 4% probability that the change in turnout amongst 18–24 years olds was 12 points or higher.     

A problem-based approach to understanding public support for referendums

A prominent explanation of widespread popular support for referendums is dissatisfaction with the functioning of representative democracy. In this article, the aim is to gain a better understanding of how dissatisfaction affects support for referendums. Drawing on previous research, it is argued here that citizens follow a problem-based approach in their support for referendums, in that referendums are considered a suitable solution to address some specific problems in a political system but not all. Survey data from the 2012 European Social Survey (29 countries; N = 37,070) is used to show that citizens’ expectations towards and evaluations of representatives relate to support for referendums. In particular, dissatisfaction with the ability of governments to listen to their citizens is associated with higher support for referendums. In contrast, citizens dissatisfied with the government's ability to lead are less supportive of referendums. Furthermore, the relationship between dissatisfaction with governments’ ability to listen varies across countries depending on the level of experience with decision making via referendum. In countries where referendums are used more often, the expectation of referendums being able to solve the problem of unresponsive government is weaker. This study offers important insights into the different ways in which preferences and evaluations of representative practices relate to popular support for referendums.     

“金三角”地区毒品形势系列调查报告——老挝北部地区毒品对我渗透形势的调查

2007年1月18日至20日,国家社科项目"‘金三角’地区毒品对我渗透形势的新变化及应对策略研究"课题组赴老挝北部与我国边境一带进行了毒情调研。由于中国与老挝近年来多次联合开展扫毒行动,大力发展替代种植,取得显著成效,老挝北部地区毒品对我渗透形势已经发生根本改变。