Great expectations: the effect of democratic ideals on political trust in European democracies

While in the older literature, low levels of political trust were routinely interpreted as a lack of support for democracy, more recently authors have claimed that the value pattern of critical citizens is a hallmark for a mature and stable democratic system. In this paper we assess the empirical validity of this claim, by relying on the relative deprivation literature highlighting the relation between expectation and frustration. The 2012 wave of the European Social Survey included an extensive battery measuring democratic ideals, and using latent class analysis we identify a group with high ideals on how a democracy should function. Multilevel regression analysis shows that strong democratic ideals are associated with lower levels of political trust, and most strongly so in countries with low quality of government. We close with observations on how rising democratic ideals could be a cause for the occurrence of a new group of ‘critical citizens’.     

To have or not to have: Effects of economic inequality on turnout in European democracies

The effect of economic inequality on turnout has received considerable interest recently. Some studies suggest that inequality depresses turnout, others that the relationship is either the other way around or simply non-existent. Employing a large dataset with some 80,000 respondents from 30 European democracies, we show that great care is required when exploring inequality and turnout. On average, there is indeed a negative/positive effect of being below/above the median income in a country – but it is conditioned by inequality (measured as the Gini coefficient) and national wealth (measured as GDP per capita). Moreover, the two country-level factors interact in surprising ways. Based on our results we warn against claims of mono-causal relationships between the economic situation of voters and turnout.     

新疆社区美沙酮维持治疗的调查报告——以乌鲁木齐市美沙酮维持治疗中心门诊为例

美沙酮药物维持治疗作为中国社区戒毒康复的一个有效措施,经过近十年的实践已初见成效。多民族的新疆地区,毒情形势和吸毒人员有着不同于内地的特点,在新疆实施美沙酮药物维持治疗已取得了一定效果,但也暴露出了相当多的、亟待解决的问题。本文试就从乌鲁木齐美沙酮维持治疗8个中心门诊的调查找出解决问题的对策。     

From War to Prison: Examining the Relationship Between Military Service and Criminal Activity

In February of 2008 the New York Times ran a series—War Torn—on Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans and their adjustment to civilian life upon return from the war zone. The authors assessed the criminal involvement of veterans by using newspaper accounts and other open source data to identify homicides in which the offender was an Afghanistan or Iraq war veteran. This particular aspect of the series drew a great deal of criticism, in part because of disagreements about the wisdom of the wars, but also because the sources of data used were perceived as less than systematic and accurate. This series and the debate that it engendered raised once again to prominence the issue of whether veterans are disproportionately involved in crime upon their return from service and specifically from combat assignments. The series also raised the question of whether media accounts of violent behavior by returning combat veterans are simply anecdotal or if they portend a more system-wide problem. This paper uses data from the Surveys of Inmates of State and Federal Correctional Facilities and the Current Population Surveys from 1985 to 2004 to estimate more systematically the prevalence and nature of the offending by military veterans in civilian society. The study seeks to avoid some of the methodological weaknesses of earlier studies that examined the criminal behavior of returning veterans. Specifically, the research considers whether criminal behavior, as reflected in the likelihood of imprisonment, is affected by military service, era of service, or service during wartime after controlling for social and demographic characteristics associated with offending. The findings indicate that military service in general is not predictive of incarceration when key demographic and social integration variables are taken into account. Service during wartime was found to be inversely related to subsequent incarceration, while veterans of the post-1973 All Volunteer Force were more likely to be incarcerated than were civilians and veterans who served during the draft era.     

INTIMATE PARTNER VIOLENCE IN U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS: THE CONTEXTUAL INFLUENCES OF POLICE AND SOCIAL SERVICES*

Although community responses to the problem of intimate partner violence typically focus on increasing and improving policing and social services, few studies have examined the relationship among police force size, social service providers, and women's safety at home. To address this issue, we use data from the National Crime Victimization Survey to examine patterns of intimate partner violence for 40 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) over a 16‐year period (1989–2004). We analyze the data using three‐level multilevel models, with individual respondents (N = 487,166) nested within years, nested within MSAs. Net of other important individual and contextual factors, the results show that women's likelihood of victimization is significantly lower in MSAs that employ more sworn officers per capita, whereas the states’ mandatory arrest laws are not found to have significant independent effects. Above and beyond the effects of police force size, we also find a significant negative relationship between the size of the social service workforce and intimate partner violence. Future research should develop collaborative data collection efforts to examine the specific activities of police and social service workers in dealing with intimate partner violence so that the mechanisms underlying these significant relationships can be understood more clearly.     

Looking to the future: Prospective economic voting in 2008 Presidential Elections

Despite the economic turmoil of the time, a typical study of vote choice in the 2008 US Presidential Election would (falsely) find little evidence that voters’ opinions about the future state of the economy affected their vote choice. We argue that this misleading conclusion results from serious measurement error in the standard prospective economic evaluations survey question. Relying instead on a revised question, included for the first time in the 2008 American National Election Study, we find that most respondents condition their prospective economic evaluations on potential election outcomes, and that these evaluations are an important determinant of vote choice. A replication in a very different political context – the 2008 Ghanaian election – yields similar results.     

Measuring issue ownership with survey questions. A question wording experiment

Issue ownership, which has a competence and an associative dimension, refers to the link between issues and parties in voters' minds. Although used frequently in voting research, there remain worries about the validity of its current measures. The measures may be confounded with respondents' (dis)agreement with parties' position and general party evaluations. Through a question wording experiment we compare measures of both issue ownership types and test which are most affected by the two confounding factors. We find that competence issue ownership measures are heavily affected by confounding factors while associative issue ownership wordings are less. Challenging existing research, we find that especially the classic ‘best at handling’-wording tapping competence issue ownership is most conflated with positions and party preference.     

从调研中看社区矫正

社区矫正作为一种经济、有效、人道的刑罚执行方法,代表着刑罚执行的未来走向。但我国的社区矫正工作起步较晚,总体发展水平比较低,尤其是缺乏一个成熟完善的社区矫正法律体系。本文依托对虹口区社区矫正实施情况的调查报告,根据社区矫正的理论,对社区矫正中存在的一些现实问题进行了分析,并且提出了对社区矫正制度的改革建议。     

Surveying support for child and youth political participation in Australia and New Zealand

Recent decades have witnessed increased empirical and policy interest in children’s citizenship, particularly since the ratification of the United Nations Declaration of Children’s Rights. However, support for children’s active citizenship is often hindered by the pervasiveness of discourses that characterise children as innocent, developing, and free from responsibility. Public and governmental decision-making largely excludes children’s consultation and contributions, often determined by age alone. To quantifiably assess the amount of public support for children’s political participation, we commissioned a Likert scale survey question on degrees of support for children and youth (across four age groups between 3 and 18 year olds) having the opportunity to influence government decisions, in the Australian and New Zealand 2016 versions of the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP). Analysis of responses to this question in relation to demographic survey data indicate variation in preferences for different age groups, and that age, gender, and political party preference of respondents were variables of significance for both nations. These variables point to potential predictors of attitudes toward political participation of children and youth which have relevance for policymakers and educators in relation to provision of programmes that will increase the engagement of children and youth in government decision-making.     

西安网上青年自组织发展调查报告

网上青年自组织是在青年中自发成立、自主运作、自由发展的非正式组织。研究西安市网上青年自组织的发展状况,准确把握其发展特点和规律,分析其发展趋势和社会影响,对发挥网上青年自组织在倡导优秀网络文化,丰富青年社会生活和文化生活,推动青年投身社会公益活动等方面具有积极作用,同时监测和规避其消极影响,引导网上青年自组织健康有序发展,能够为推进新时期党和政府全方位做好青年工作,为共青团改进和加强青年工作提供参考和决策依据。