美国国家安全委员会变迁探析

美国建立了世界上第一个国家安全委员会,历经67年世势风云的洗礼,美国国家安全委员会已成为美国处理所有国际事务的中心,作为美国国家安全事务的咨询与协调机构,它在美国国家安全决策过程乃至世界外交局势的演变中都持续发挥着重要的影响力。历经各任领导者对其地位与角色的不同定位,美国国家安全委员会的职能、制度、运行及决策程序在不断修改与调整中走向稳定与成熟。其机构和人员的设置既审时度势、灵活多样、顺应时代变化,又逐渐探索确立了富有特色的部际协调机制,将各法定成员、法定顾问、国家安全事务助理以及非法定成员有效地组织起来,通过形式各异的正式程序、非正式程序以及秘密程序的分析、评估与协调会议,为总统的国家安全事务决策提供必不可少的支持。美国国家安全委员会变迁与改革的每一步都伴随着法律及行政法令的颁行与修订,授权与监督,体现了法制先行的特点。美国国家安全委员会戏剧性的发展历程中积累的经验与教训,为中国建立不久的中央国家安全委员会提供了借鉴。     

Human Services Providers’ Perspectives on Refugee Resettlement in the United States before and after the 2016 Presidential Election

Abstract

The United States has historically accepted and resettled refugees by opening its doors to those fleeing violence, armed conflict, or persecution around the world. However, the degree of receptivity toward refugee resettlement has vacillated over time. This study examines the challenges and opportunities that Refugee Resettlement Agencies (RRAs) experienced prior to and after the 2016?U.S. Presidential election. The findings presented in this paper, based on focus groups with the RRA staff, revealed that there is a greater need for understanding the refugee resettlement process and how changing immigration policies impact state-federal funding.     

Party competition and citizens' political attitudes in the American states

Democratic theorists argue that vigorous competition between candidates/parties is essential for democracy to flourish because it engages citizens' political interest and ultimately makes elected officials more accountable to their constituents. Using data on citizens' perceptions of government responsiveness to their political opinions from the American National Election Studies and the Ranney measure of party competition for control of state government, we examine the effects of competition on citizens' political attitudes from 1952 to 2008. Our analysis reveals that citizens feel government is more responsive to them when there is greater competition between the two parties for control of government in their state. However, this relationship is confined only to citizens who identify with the party that controls government in their state. We also find that the relationship between competition and efficacy is strongest among citizens with lower levels of education and income. These results suggest that vigorous competition for control of state government can have important implications for citizens' political attitudes.     

Untangling Housing Cost and Transportation Interactions: The Location Affordability Index Model—Version 2 (LAIM2)

Abstract

It is now accepted that to have an understanding of housing affordability one must consider not only housing costs, but also the transportation costs associated with that household location. To make this information readily accessible to the public, the United States government created an Internet resource, the Location Affordability Portal – Version 2 (www.locationaffordability.info), to provide housing and transportation costs for every neighborhood in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Although the statistical model at the heart of this resource was designed for predictive accuracy, its design and parameter estimates can provide additional insights into the interaction of housing cost and transportation choices (and thus its cost). This study describes the development and explores the policy implications (and limitations) of this structural equations model, the Location Affordability Index Model – Version 2 (LAIM2).     

Checking the Fact-Checkers in 2008: Predicting Political Ad Scrutiny and Assessing Consistency

Which types of political ads are most likely to draw criticism from fact-checkers? Are fact-checkers consistent in their evaluations of political ads? Examining general election television ads from the 2008 U.S. presidential race, and based upon the evaluations of FactCheck.org, PolitiFact.com, and the Washington Post's Fact Checker, this study demonstrates it was the attack ads from candidates that were most likely to draw scrutiny from the fact-checkers. Most importantly, a high level of agreement between the fact-checkers indicates their success at selecting political claims that can be consistently evaluated. While political advertisers are increasingly using evidence to support their claims, what may be more critical in drawing evaluations from fact-checkers is the verifiability of a claim. The implications of consistent fact-checking on the public, political actors, journalism and democracy are discussed. With the revelation that fact-checking can be consistently practiced, localized efforts at fact-checking need encouragement, particularly as political TV ads increasingly drown out other potential sources of information for the public and increasingly are used in downballot races, local initiatives, referendums and judicial races.     

John Paul Jones: An Overlooked Autopsy Finding that May Explain His Terminal Illness

A finding in the autopsy of John Paul Jones, the American Revolutionary War naval hero, may explain his terminal illness. During his last 2 years, he had a persistent productive cough and dyspnea. Ten days before death, he developed rapidly progressive dependent edema and ascites. He died in France in 1792. His body, preserved in alcohol in a lead coffin, was, in 1905, removed to the United States. Glomerulonephritis was noted on an autopsy, performed in France, but there was no comment then or since about ventricular wall thickness being the same in both ventricles at 5–6 mm. Hypertrophy and dilatation with biventricular failure followed by tissue shrinkage during 113 years in alcohol could have resulted in these ventricular wall findings. Systemic hypertension and left ventricular failure are consistent with his respiratory symptoms complicated perhaps by pulmonary emboli, right ventricular failure with tricuspid regurgitation, peripheral congestion, and jaundice.     

试论外国院外集团活动及其对美国对外政策的影响

美国作为全球唯一的超级大国 ,其对外政策关系到世界各国和国外利益集团的切身利益。各种代表国家和集团利益的外国院外集团为维护各自国家、民族和集团的利益 ,通过委托美国游说公司和具有特殊背景的人作为代理 ,在美国设立官方、民间机构 ,争取美国内具有共同利益的特殊集团的支持等方式进行院外活动 ,影响美国对外政策。因此 ,外国院外集团成为影响美国对外政策的重要因素 ,对美国对外政策的调整变化起着至关重要的作用     

The Confluence of Domestic and International Interests: U.S. Policy Toward Cuba, 1998–2001

This article examines the confluence of forces at work to shape U.S. policy toward Cuba since the late 1990s. Our approach examines four key factors involved in policymaking toward Cuba in this period: (1) the entry of new interest groups into the Cuba policy process and an "entrepreneurial" Congress; (2) the executive's constitutionally based interests; (3) bureaucratic interests; and (4) pressure from outside the United States. We examine U.S.–Cuba policy by describing each determinant in isolation and then by looking at the dynamic interaction among them, showing how they are linked together. In doing so, we argue that an analysis including multiple factors better explains U.S. policy toward Cuba than one that focuses on a single factor such as the power of the Cuban-American community.     

新安全视角下美国政府的气候政策

"人类安全"逐渐成为一种新的安全理念,环境气候问题等各种影响人类安全和福祉的非传统安全问题日益引起广泛关注。全球性安全威胁的严重程度则取决于治理框架的反应能力。包括气候政策、法律和机构在内的气候环境治理框架能够最大限度地削弱全球化冲突的根源,避免影响的发生或减缓其进程。奥巴马上任以来美国新政府能源、环境和应对气候变化政策出现较大调整,大力推动新能源法案来减缓气候变化。这一政策转向具有深刻的历史动因和政治基础,并将给美国经济复苏和美国企业的国际竞争力带来压力,加剧美国对外贸易摩擦和削弱其在国际气候环境合作中的领导地位。     

利益差异、战略分歧和美韩同盟关系的再调整

结盟是相关行为体为了维护自己的安全利益根据自己的安全战略而进行的安全合作安排,盟友之间因安全环境的变化而产生的战略分歧和利益差异也将会导致同盟关系的调整。美韩同盟是冷战时期形成的,具有防御性且主要着眼于半岛安全之同盟的性质,但进入后冷战时期,尤其是"9.11"事件之后,基于安全环境和战略利益的变化,美韩两国对同盟关系进行了较大幅度的调整,调整之后的美韩同盟虽然在联合指挥协调机制问题上还存在着一定的不确定性,但从整体上看美韩同盟在本世纪初的调整则是一个走向强化的过程。