Exchange Rate Regime,Central Bank Independence,and Political Business Cycles in Brazil

This article examines policy consequences of electoral cycles and exchange rate regime choices in Brazil. The literature on opportunistic political business cycles maintains that governments adopt expansionary economic policies before elections to mobilize voters’ support. However, research findings in Latin America based on the theory has been inconclusive. I argue that the lack of conclusive evidence in Latin America stems from measurement errors common in the use of cross-national aggregate data. Using Brazil’s monthly data from 1985 to 2006, this article shows that there are electorally induced fiscal cycles under fixed and crawling peg exchange rate regimes and electorally induced monetary cycles under floating exchange rates only when the nation’s central bank is not independent. Indeed, accounting for Brazil’s unique economic contingencies and longitudinal variations in the de facto central bank independence, its public policy behavior remarkably resembles that of the more affluent, economically stable OECD countries.

全球视野：从线性发展观到科学发展观

线性发展观在我国长期占统治地位。它以经济增长为中心,忽视了资源与生态环境对发展的制约,忽视了不平等的国际政治经济秩序对发展的制约。科学的发展观超越了线性发展观,在一种全球视野中,以人的全面发展为目标,并以社会和谐为发展的深层动力。为探寻中国新的道路奠定了坚实的基础,也为中国持续、和谐地发展提供了理论保障。     

新版港币的防伪特征——以渣打银行（香港）有限公司发行的港币为例

渣打银行(香港)有限公司于2003年12月15日开始发行100元和500元新版港币,2004年10月11日发行20元、50元和1000元新版港币。2003年版港币防伪特征主要表现在纸张、油墨、印版和印刷技术等4个方面。     

银保合作：中国保险业发展的必然选择

随着保险业与银行合作在世界范围内的兴起,国内保险业也在与银行的合作方面加快了脚步。我国银保合作良好的基础和优势促进了银保合作实践的迅猛发展,同时也暴露出金融监管体制不完善对国内银保合作的制约。     

“金三角“地区毒品形势系列调查报告(一)——临沧、德宏境外毒品对我渗透形势的调查

开展对“金三角”地区毒品新形势的调查研究是我国特别是我省调整禁毒策略和措施的重要基础工作。本文仅就“金三角”地区毒品对我渗透形势新变化的战略意义和临沧与德宏境外种毒、制毒以及贩毒势力对我渗透形势新变化的调查结果这两个问题分析阐述。     

论WTO与单独关税区

单独关税区是世界贸易组织的一个特有的重要概念.作者对单独关税区的概念、在WTO中的适用和对传统国际法的突破以及对我国的影响进行了探讨.     

论战后初期日本军队的重建

第二次世界大战后 ,美国出于实现其“全球战略”的需要 ,扶植日本发展军事力量 ;日本在吉田茂战略思想的基础上 ,亦确立了渐进式扩军路线。以 195 0年朝鲜战争为契机 ,日本由组建“国家警察预备队”而迈出重整军备的第一步 ,至 196 0年前 ,日陆上、海上、航空自卫队已具规模 ,完成了三军重建工作。     

Q&A in legislative oversight: A framework for analysis

Parliamentary questions are an essential tool of legislative oversight. However, the extent to which they are effective in controlling the executive remains underspecified both theoretically and methodologically. This article advances a systematic framework for evaluating the effectiveness of parliamentary questions drawing on principal–agent theory, the public administration literature on accountability and communication research. The framework is called the ‘Q&A approach to legislative oversight’ based on the premise that the study of parliamentary questions (Q) needs to be linked to their respective answers (A) and examined together (Q&A) at the micro-level as an exchange of claims between legislative and executive actors. Methodologically, the Q&A approach to legislative oversight offers a step-by-step guide for qualitative content analysis of Q&A that can be applied to different legislative oversight contexts at different levels of governance. It is argued that the effectiveness of Q&A depends on the strength of the questions asked and the responsiveness of answers provided, which are correspondingly operationalised. To illustrate the merits of the approach, the article includes a systematic case study on the relationship between the European Parliament and the European Central Bank in banking supervision (2013–2018), showing the connection between specific institutional settings and the effectiveness of parliamentary questions.     

The Czech transition banking sector instability: the role of operational cost management

In this article we show—using the estimated cost efficiency of banks—that besides the risk (proxied by the share of non-performing loans), the quality of operational cost management was an equally important determinant of bank failure risk during the decade of banking sector transformation in the Czech Republic.

A Conversation Between Utopia and Anti-Utopia:The Behavioristic Utopia Walden Two

After the Second World War, the American behavioral psychologist B. F. Skinner created a new utopian illusion. Instead of designing the high-technological utopia which used to be popular in the early 20th century, B. F. Skinner described an experimental community in his novel Walden Two. Walden Two embraces the proposition that the behavior of humans is determined by environmental variables, and that behavioral engineering which systematically alters environmental variables can shape and reinforce human behavior, generating a utopia. Walden Two answers the controversial issues put forward by the anti-utopian novels such as Brave New World, Anthem, and The Clockwork Orange. It is considered to have played a pivotal role in the development of the utopian ideal of the 20th century.