The Short‐Term Effects of Mediation on Low‐Intensity Civil Wars

International diplomacy, to the extent it is effective, should not only prevent escalation of low‐intensity conflict, but should also facilitate de‐escalation. This article focuses on the short‐term effects of managing low‐intensity civil wars through third‐party mediation. Specifically, we compare the efficacy of third party‐mediated direct (face‐to‐face) and indirect talks in low‐intensity civil wars from 1993 to 2004 using the Managing Intrastate Low‐Intensity Conflict data set. We argue that a focus on short‐term success is valid because of the relationship among mediation, short‐term success, humanitarian aid access, and peacebuilding. We also assess the roles of mediator identity, mediation strategy (behavior focus versus incompatibility focus), peace agreements, war type, per capita gross domestic product, level of democracy, and conflict duration. Our overarching finding is that direct forms of mediation in which all parties meet face to face were the most likely to yield short‐term success in the sample of civil wars that we analyzed.     

Challenges of Evaluating Democracy Assistance: Perspectives from the Donor Side

A large number of multilateral and bilateral donors have become engaged in the area of democracy and governance (DG) assistance over the last 15 years, stimulated by a series of trends and events. Despite the maturation of DG assistance as an important development area and the high profile of democracy promotion as a key foreign policy goal, research on the impact of this assistance and the effectiveness of different types of programming has been limited. Donors are constantly in need of feedback on the effectiveness and impact of their programming in order to revise programme designs, re-strategize aid portfolios, or address new DG issues. Moreover, legislatures increasingly require government aid agencies to be able to measure the results of their programmes, thereby demonstrating a ‘return on investment’ that would guide future assistance. Quality research is hampered by a daunting political, logistical, and methodological context, however. In 2005 a donor-sponsored workshop was organized to discuss challenges facing the evaluation and assessment of DG programming and assistance. The purpose of this article is to share insights from the workshop with a wider audience of scholars, practitioners and other policy-makers in the hope that this will stimulate additional research and thinking in this area.     

跨境电子商务对进出口贸易影响的实证分析

该文采用理论模型与实证分析相结合的方法,研究了中国跨境电子商务发展对进出口贸易及贸易周期的影响。该文创新点在于：以不完全竞争市场为基础,建立电子商务环境下的国际贸易市场模型,同时运用实证分析,采用协整分析方法,进一步建立ARCH模型和向量自回归模型,以揭示跨境电子商务发展与进出口贸易的关系。研究表明,跨境电子商务发展与进出口贸易之间存在长期均衡关系,跨境电子商务的发展能够增加进出口贸易的波动性,并且呈同方向变化。     

论我国债券市场做市商制度的发展

做市商作为连接债券买卖双方的中介机构 ,是债券流通转让的市场实现条件 ,也是市场发育成熟以至正常运行的关键。尽管目前我国的做市商制度面临许多问题 ,但随着证券市场的进一步发展 ,我们必须克服困难促进做市商制度的发展     

The EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership: From bilateral to multilateral forums and the strategic value for South Africa

ABSTRACT

Strategic partnerships are seen as a means of elevating bilateral relations between two countries, or in the case of the European Union (EU), relations between an intergovernmental organisation and its 10 identified strategic partners. There is a growing body of analysis on the value of these strategic partnerships for the two partner states, yet just what role this partnership has within wider multilateral forums is an area for further discussion. This article explores the role that the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership plays in shaping engagement between the bilateral partners in multilateral contexts. In reviewing the partnership over the course of its first decade, the article argues that South Africa has increasingly acknowledged its potential value. However, further interrogation on how to manage the complex intersection between bilateral and multilateral relations is called for if the strategic partnership is to be used to optimal effect as a tool of foreign policy.     

ClEARSKIES BY2030

正Cutting carbon emissions has emerged as a key area of Sino-U.S.cooperation There are many topics on which China and the United States differ,but the need to reduce carbon emissions has become a shining example of bilateral cooperation and the future of the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.U.S.President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping on November 12 announced their strongest     

防止海上事件与中美海上军事互信机制建设(英文)

This paper seeks to analyze the deficiencies, underlying flaws, and prospects of the Sino-US military maritime safety consultation mechanism, based on maritime incident prevention theories and typical cases. It also on also offers suggestions on the future development of the Sino-US maritime offers maritime confidence-building mechanism.     

Regulatory capitalism and its discontents: Bilateral interdependence and the adaptability of regulatory styles

The expansion of global trade has produced new challenges for the effective governance of product safety. We argue that many of these challenges arise at the bilateral level from the interaction of more or less adaptable national regulatory styles. When regulatory styles are unadaptable they produce gaps in risk management, slow and contested resolutions to crises, and limited regulatory cooperation. To examine these claims empirically, we study bilateral food safety regulation in four major exporter–importer dyads: China–Japan; Canada–United States (US), China–European Union (EU), and the US–Japan. The China–Japan dyad is the most adaptable, combining China's “export segmentation” regulatory style with Japan's strongly “risk‐averse, interventionist” style. The Canada–US dyad operates effectively, bringing together Canada's “global market–conforming” regulatory style with the US strategy of “sovereign regulator.” The China–EU dyad is less adaptable because the EU's “harmonization” regulatory style makes it difficult for the EU to adapt to the weaknesses of the Chinese food safety system. Finally, the US's sovereign regulator style clashes with Japan's interventionist style, making them the least adaptable of the four dyads. The paper concludes with a discussion of the broader relevance of our findings for the development of regulatory capitalism.     

Building Neo-liberal Markets and Other Agendas: The Politics of Risk Management at AusAID

Abstract

This article analyses emerging approaches by donors to risk management, focusing on the case of the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID). It suggests that AusAID's understanding and management of risk are expressions of particular political and social interests and, subsequently, that its approach to risk management is inherently political in nature. While AusAID's policies and guidelines on risk management identify a wide range of risks as being relevant to the agency's work – including risks to poverty reduction and sustainable development – in practice it has focused on managing risks to the building of neo-liberal markets, both within Australia and in developing countries, and the Australian government's foreign policy objectives. To illustrate these points, we present an analysis of AusAID's approach to risk management in a major economic governance project, the Philippines-Australia Partnership for Economic Governance Reforms. We conclude by indicating ways in which donor approaches to risk management can be revised to give greater attention to the needs of the poor and civil society, while acknowledging that such revisions may be contingent upon prior changes in the structure of power and interest and/or institutional characteristics of aid policy-making processes in donor countries.     

中国FTA战略对双边贸易依存度的影响研究

随着经济全球化不断地深入发展,区域经济一体化也正在加速发展,双边FTA不断在国家之间签署,以自由贸易区为主要形式的区域贸易安排不断出现。该文选取2002年-2017年中国和FTA协议国双边的贸易数据,运用PSM-DID模型分析中国签订FTA对双边贸易依存度的影响如何。研究结果发现:第一,签订FTA对中国和协议国双方的贸易依存度具有提升作用;第二,中国与不同发展程度、不同区域类型的国家签订FTA对双边贸易依存度的影响不同,与发达国家签订FTA对双边贸易依存度的提升作用比发展中国家作用明显,与周边国家签订FTA对双边贸易依存度的影响也更大。