新加坡与美国的军事合作关系

在军事战略方面,新加坡已成为美国亚太安全岛链中的重要角色,成为美国防范恐怖主义和围堵中国的棋局中的一个棋子.本文通过军事合作与地缘战略两项因素,分析新加坡与美国的军事合作关系.本文研究发现:第一,新加坡正在取代此前菲律宾的地位,成为美国在亚太地区前沿部署的关键性角色;第二,美国对于新加坡的武器输出,已经超出"防御武器"的限制;第三,在"9·11"事件之后,新加坡宣布与美国站在同一阵线,共同对抗恐怖主义.也就是说,由于地缘战略的重要性,美国正借与新加坡的军事合作,使其成为美国亚太安全岛链的一环.     

对无过错违法使用警械、武器的民警刑事追偿质疑——一例国家赔偿案引发的刑事追偿条件反思

现行国家赔偿法对违法使用警械、武器职权行为的刑事追偿条件失之于宽,缺乏主观过错要件。国家赔偿法中的违法与通常所称的违法不同,并不包含有主观过错条件。而追偿是对主观过错的惩戒,对无过错违法使用警械、武器的公安民警进行刑事追偿,则违背了立法的初衷,也与行政追偿的主观过错要件相矛盾,显然是一种立法疏漏。国家赔偿法应增设主观过错要件,将此情形排除在刑事追偿范围之外。     

The Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty in Jeopardy? Internal Divisions and the Impact of World Politics

The frustration of non-nuclear weapon states about the lack of progress in nuclear disarmament has reached boiling point: a vast majority of them have supported a resolution in the UN General Assembly that establishes a negotiation forum for concluding a prohibition of nuclear weapons in 2017. Rising tension among the nuclear powers and populist movements feeding nationalist emotions make it unlikely that the situation will change for the better in the near future. It is thus possible that the NPT might be eroded or, in the worst case scenario, simply collapse because of diminishing support.     

Perception and Politics in Intelligence Assessment: U.S. Estimates of the Soviet and "Rogue-State" Nuclear Threats

United States estimates of Soviet nuclear goals and capabilities and the current "rogue-state" nuclear threat reflected prevailing beliefs about threat within the U.S. government and the relative influence of agencies charged with threat assessment. This article establishes that the patterns in formal Soviet threat assessment: (i) did not reflect a uniform response to "external threat," (ii) were inevitably tied to underlying assumptions about adversary intent, and (iii) were susceptible then to perceptual, organizational, and/or political influences within government. Thus, threat assessments reflected the optimism and pessimism—and political interests and ideologies—of those who participated in the estimating process. The article concludes by examining these lessons in light of the experiences and challenges of assessing threat from small states harboring nuclear ambitions.     

论如何加强民营小型化工企业的消防安全

化工企业生产规模不断扩大,生产中所涉及的物质中可燃有机物所占的份额不断增大,而且生产本身又具有生产方法多种多样、装置规模大型化和生产工艺高参数的特点,这些因素决定了化工企业具有较大的火灾危险性。本文针对化工企业火灾的特点、成因,对化工企业火灾防治进行了研究,分析了化工企业中存在的火灾危险及薄弱环节,结合实际情况提出了相应的预防措施。结果表明有效的火灾预防措施能最大限度地减少发生火灾爆炸事故的机率。因此,及时有效地对化工企业中存在的潜在危险做好预防措施是十分必要的。     

东亚区域经济合作中的云南易制毒特殊化学物品管理模式探析

随着东亚区域经济合作步伐的加快,控制与阻断易制毒特殊化学物品的非法流通,在遏制境外毒品犯罪的祸源上寻求最新管理模式显得十分紧迫与必要。1、管理应由传统的“垂直型”向“扁平化”和“网络化”发展;2、应由单一的“自拉自唱”向“战略联盟”管理模式转变;3、应由单一型知识结构向“复合型”的人才升级转变。     

Historical reconstruction of the community response,and related epidemiology,of a suspected biological weapon attack in Ningbo,China (1940)

During World War II, members of the Imperial Japanese Army biological warfare Unit 731 conducted a live test deployment of plague-infected fleas in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, China. The deployment triggered an outbreak involving 165 cases in downtown Ningbo, 112 of which were fatal (68% case fatality rate). Despite lack of access to effective medical countermeasures, the Ningbo community exhibited a high degree of social cohesion and resilience in the context of effective public health response. These findings support the value of community preparedness and strong public health infrastructure to mitigate the impact of biological weapons.     

统计学方法在微量物证数据处理中的应用

统计学方法在微量物证理化检验工作中受到越来越多的重视,采用有效的统计学方法对检验数据进行分析,不仅能够深度挖掘复杂数据背后信息,还能不断提高数据的应用价值和证据本身的证据价值。本文对目前微量物证领域常用统计学方法进行归纳总结,简要介绍了常用统计方法的应用,对各类方法优缺点进行说明。最后,对法庭科学工作者都比较感兴趣的贝叶斯统计与似然比方法在理化检验数据统计分析中的应用进行了介绍。     

高速公路化危品槽车突发事故救援对策初探

近年来，随着我国高速公路的不断延伸，参与高速公路化危品槽车突发事故的抢险救援工作已成为各级消防部队面临的一个新课题，本文从分析掌握高速公路化危品槽车突发事故的特点等5个方面入手，就应采取的抢险救援对策进行了深入探讨。     

(Nuclear) Change of Plans: What Explains Nuclear Reversals?

What explains a state’s decision to give up its nuclear weapons program? While instances of nuclear reversal figure prominently in international politics, evidence in the literature has been largely piecemeal. We offer a novel conceptualization of the proliferation process as nonlinear, potentially including instances of reversal, as well as pursuit of a nuclear program and acquisition of nuclear weapons. Employing this theoretical framework, we consider states’ cost-benefit calculations in each phase of the proliferation process, and we test our theory using a multistate model. Two counterintuitive findings emerge from this framework. First, nuclear latency increases the likelihood of pursuit and acquisition but also increases the likelihood of reversal by reducing the costs of restarting a program in the future. Second, the nonproliferation regime discourages states without a nuclear program from pursuing and acquiring nuclear weapons while at the same time making states with nuclear programs less likely to reverse course.