Anomalous authoritarianism: what,which, why?

Research on autocracies has gained new momentum in the last decade. One element of this research is the observation that some autocracies are characterised by structural conditions that are normally conducive for democracy. These ‘anomalous autocracies’ have high levels of socioeconomic development and democratic neighbour countries. The study of these cases might expose factors that are decisive for autocratic stability and studying them might give us a better understanding of barriers towards democratisation. This paper contributes to the growing literature on autocracies by mapping anomalous autocracies during the third wave of democratisation, thereby paving the way for systematic case selection in future studies. A large-N analysis of 159 cases (1975–2008) identifies Belarus, Chile, China, Cuba, Morocco, North Korea, Peru, Singapore, Swaziland, Togo and Zimbabwe. In a second step, the paper lays out a theoretical framework that centres on actors and institutions. Rulers must establish elite–elite and elite–mass interaction, and this papers argues that they can do so through quasi-compliance of elites and the masses based on traditional institutions woven into a dominant party. The paper uses the framework to tentatively examine the resilience of authoritarian rule in Swaziland and Morocco, two most-different anomalous cases. In both cases, an elaborate traditional institution has co-opted government, business and rural elites and coordinated interaction within elite circles and with the masses, in turn enabling the remarkable regime resilience.     

新精神活性物质检验鉴定面临的挑战和对策

新精神活性物质更新快,种类繁多,缺乏国际条约的监管,列入联合国管控目录困难,加之一些国家和国际社会对大麻等毒品管控降低,给我国在新精神活性物质类毒品的监管带来困难.具有成瘾性和社会危害性的新精神活性物质才能成为列管对象,毒物分析技术人员在列管程序中扮演极为重要的角色.我国对新精神活性物质的监管法规规定了相关列管程序,毒...     

遏制和预防公务员腐败的经济学分析

公务员腐败的一个重要原因是我国目前的制度安排尚有缺陷,导致腐败成为“高收益低风险”行为。从微观经济学理论出发,建立成本——收益模型和公务员腐败——廉洁选择的决策树模型。通过制度创新,使腐败成为被查处概率极高、政治风险极大和经济成本极巨的行为。同时,提高公务员廉洁收益。     

口语交际策略及其语用学探析

口语交际策略是保证口语交际活动取得成功的对策和谋略。运用语用学的相关原理,对口语交际的观察策略、倾听策略、表达策略、反馈策略、调控策略进行深入地探析,可以帮助人们更好地理解和把握这些策略,有效地提高口语交际的策略水平。     

基于GTD的教育机构恐怖袭击实证分析及防范策略

在反恐形势日趋严峻的大环境下,教育机构已逐渐成为恐怖分子袭击的重点目标。基于GTD数据库中所收录的2009-2018年恐怖袭击的数据,以教育机构为研究对象,从教育机构恐怖袭击的发生数量、地域分布、袭击手段,以及所造成的后果等方面进行梳理,并对两个典型案例(两个国家的情况)进行分析,发现教育机构恐怖袭击主要有以下特点:袭击频发但呈下降趋势、袭击地域分布不平衡、袭击手段以爆炸为主袭击损失小但引起恐慌大等。对教育机构恐怖袭击,应从安保措施、情报预警、危险品管控以及宣传教育等方面加强防范。     

Promoting customer engagement: A new trend in utility regulation

This paper traces a new development in regulation that encourages utilities to engage more directly with their customers. We make four contributions: First, we perform a comprehensive analysis of how regulators are using customer engagement, and offer a simple model for understanding different customer engagement initiatives. Second, we review assessments of customer engagement. We find that there are no quantitative, empirically robust assessments of the effectiveness of customer engagement as a regulatory tool. Third, we develop two detailed case studies of an energy regulator and a water regulator that are in the forefront of customer engagement efforts. We find that there is no direct link between the engagement strategy used and the economic incentives received by a firm. Finally, we propose a framework for improving the customer engagement process. The new framework relies on microeconomics, modern tools of program evaluation, and supplying the regulated firm with direct incentives to engage with the customer.     

The Cosponsorship Patterns of Reserved Seat Legislators

This study analyzes the bill cosponsorship behavior of reserved seat legislators in the Pakistan National Assembly, where special legislative seats are reserved for women and religious minorities. It offers a critical case because two theories on reserved seat legislators—the theory of electoral incentives and the theory of institutional weakness—lead to opposite predictions about the extent to which such legislators will engage in bill cosponsorship, with the former (latter) predicting the negative (positive) effect of reserved seats. I find that women and minorities in reserved seats initiate a greater number of bills and cosponsor bills with a larger number of peers than nonreserved male legislators. Using network analysis, I also show that reserved legislators tend to play a role in bridging different partisan blocs of legislators within the cosponsorship network. These empirical patterns provide support to the theory of institutional weakness, rather than to the theory of electoral incentives.     

Reply to Mac Giolla and Ly (2019): On the reporting of Bayes factors in deception research

Bayes factors provide a continuous measure of evidence for one hypothesis (e.g., the null, H0) relative to another (e.g., the alternative, H1). Warmelink et al. (2019, Legal Criminol Psychol, 24, 258) reported Bayes factors alongside p‐values to draw inferences about whether the order of expected versus unexpected questions influenced the amount of details interviewees provided during an interview. Mac Giolla & Ly (2019) provided several recommendations to improve the reporting of Bayesian analyses and used Warmelink et al. (2019) as a concrete example. These included (I) not to over‐rely on cut‐offs when interpreting Bayes factors; (II) to rely less on Bayes factors, and switch to ‘nominal support’; and (III) to report the posterior distribution. This paper elaborates on their recommendations and provides two further suggestions for improvement. First, we recommend deception researchers report Robustness Regions to demonstrate the sensitivity of their conclusions to the model of H1 used. Second, we demonstrate a method that deception researchers can use to estimate, a priori, the sample size likely to be required to provide conclusive evidence.