The March Towards Post‐Democracy,Ten Years On

Events since I published my book Post‐democracy in 2004 suggest that democracy continues to decline in effectiveness in those parts of the world where it has been most strongly established. The global financial crisis, the consequent euro crisis, the likely shape of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and growing evidence of the political power of giant mass media corporations all suggest that the dominant forces in today's politics are not those of democratic will. Movements like Syriza in Greece possibly suggest a democratic reawakening, but that is too early to determine. Meanwhile, it is important also to be aware of democracy's limits, and to try to resolve the problem of post‐democracy by extending its reach beyond its competence.     

风险社会语境下的农业产业危机与政府干预——以海南“香蕉危机”为个案

在风险社会语境下,中国农业除要面对自然和市场的双重风险,还要面对科学技术和政策变递等带来的振荡。对农业风险的预防和治理需要政府发挥主导作用,而政府干预不当却可能诱发或加剧农业风险。海南爆发的“香蕉危机”作为中国现代农业产业危机的缩影再次暴露出在农业生产经营和农业风险管理方面政府干预存在的严重问题,文章试图通过对海南“香蕉危机”事件的分析,剖析政府干预在农业产业危机的形成与治理中的作用,并进而提出政府适度干预以应对农业产业危机的对策与建议。     

浅析高等院校校园危机的预防

高等院校校园危机已经成为一种社会现象,危机的防范也已成为构建和谐社会的重要内容。校园危机重在预防,强化危机意识是危机预防的立足点和出发点。当前,要建立应对危机的预警机制;应该将危机防范管理制度化;应该建立常备不懈的危机应急机制;应该加强大学生的心理健康教育;还应该完善高校帮困助学体系。     

非典危机与政府治道变革

非典危机是对我国政府的施政理念、管理体制、管理手段和管理方式等方面的一次全面挑战,既暴露了以往存在的一系列问题,也促成了政府在治道方面的一系列变化。我国政府必须通过施政理念、利益关系、管理模式等的全面变革,实现政府再造,建设一个更适应现代化发展要求的服务型的政府,一个专业化的高效率的高度负责的现代政府。     

Prospect theory,operational code analysis,and risk-taking behaviour: a new model of China’s crisis behaviour

Integrating prospect theory and operational code analysis, this paper introduces an innovative approach to studying the decision making of Chinese leaders during crises. The unique contribution of this paper is to adopt the methodology of operational code analysis to measure the domain of actions of policy makers in the application of prospect theory. We suggest that leaders’ operational code beliefs can help us to identify in which domain of actions (gains or losses) leaders are located during crises. Xi Jinping experienced two notable foreign policy crises in 2014, the ‘oil rig’ crisis with Vietnam and the ‘P-8 crisis’ with the United States, which are examined in detail to illustrate Xi’s operational code beliefs and risk-taking behaviour of ‘confident accommodation’ behaviour during crises. To test the process validity of integrating operational code analysis and prospect theory, Hu Jintao’s operational code beliefs and crisis behaviour in 2011–2012 are then compared to Xi’s beliefs and decisions in this study of China’s crisis behaviour.     

African Union and Intra-State Conflict Resolution: A Return to the Libyan Crisis (2011)

This paper looked at the performance of the African Union (AU), in the resolution of intrastate conflicts in Africa. The study necessitated a revisit to the Libyan crisis. It is acknowledged in the study that conflicts pervade human relations. In the case of Africa, the study further shows that Africa has never experienced a lasting peace. The theoretical framework of games theory has been adopted in the study, to describe the character of African conflicts and to proffer solutions for the minimization of the level and number of such intrastate conflicts. The Libyan conflict typified the character of intrastate conflicts in Africa and was used for illustration in the study. The study concluded that the AU has made significant contributions toward the resolution of intrastate conflicts in Africa but there are still shortcomings of the AU and impediments to the efforts of the African Union, toward the resolution of such crises.     

The dynamic political economy of support for Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential election campaign

In recent years, students of voting behavior have become increasingly interested in valence politics models of electoral choice. These models share the core assumption that key issues in electoral politicds typically are ones upon which there is a widespread public consensus on the goals of public policy. The present paper uses latent curve modeling procedures and data from a six-wave national panel survey of the American electorate to investigate the dynamic effects of voters’ concerns with the worsening economy—a valence issue par excellence—in the skein of causal forces at work in the 2008 presidential election campaign. As the campaign developed, the economy became the dominant issue. Although the massively negative public reaction to increasingly perilous economic conditions was not the only factor at work in 2008, dynamic multivariate analyses show that mounting worries about the economy played an important role in fueling Barack Obama’s successful run for the presidency.     

政府公共危机处置的阶段划分与管理对策

公共危机管理是现代政府亟待加强的重要职能之一,为了提高政府公共危机的管理能力,应当科学认识政府危机管理的全过程,正确处置危机管理程序.政府危机管理依据工作重点的不同可分为储备、预警、控制和恢复4大阶段,针对政府危机处置的程序,可以从10个方面加强管理.     

National Security and Minerals

The term “national security” evolved from a nation possessing military might to predominantly having a secure national economy. Beteen those two aspects lie other factors that contribute to a nation＇s security. Minerals have been part of national se, curity strategy since the need for security was felt by nations. Especially military, economic, and environmental security has been factors that have driven mineral demand. On the other hand, mining and minerals have often been the cause of national security alerts. This paper would represent economic security as being reliant on minerals and will highlight economic security as the key driver that activates other security issues today. It will go on to discuss how minerals have also been affected by national security problems, such as the recent financial crisis. Furthermore, minerals have also been the cause for national security problems.     

次贷危机与我国金融安全

随着美国次贷危机的蔓延,资产证券化的风险对金融安全的影响不容忽视。结合对美国次贷危机诱因及目前资产证券化风险的分析,提出防范风险的核心是建立一套与我国金融安全相适应的一系列机制。