人质危机事件战术性谈判处置模式研究

劫持人质事件中警队谈判组与攻击单位是处置的核心力量,现场规范架构中谈判小组与攻击单位的配合是处置的关键所在,在和平谈判无望或情况危机时,谈判小组通过及时转入战术性谈判来提供准确情报与引导攻击行动,在保障多方安全的同时可提高攻击效率,最大可能减少伤亡与降低事件处置成本。     

构建现代社会道德体系应以职业道德为基础

转型期的中国社会出现了"道德滑坡"现象。在以家庭美德为基础的传统社会道德体系逐渐解体的背景下,需要构建现代社会道德体系,需要顺应中国社会的转型推动道德转型。相较于传统社会道德体系以家庭美德为基础而言,现代社会道德体系的基础则是职业道德。职业道德是提升全民道德水平的支点,在这个过程中,政府及公职人员应从态度、行动和形象上转变角色,积极构建现代社会道德体系。     

我国网络舆情及网络舆情危机理论研究综述

就我国有关网络舆情内涵及特点,网络舆情危机产生、发展、演变规律,网络舆情及网络舆情危机监测、研判、引导、应对对策,网络政治及网络民主相关理论研究的重要观点,进行了归纳与分析,旨在为进一步探索网络舆情规律,正确引导网络舆情发展,合理应对网络舆情危机提供理论参考。     

乌克兰事件的世界意义 及其对中国的警示

2014年乌克兰危机和克里米亚回归俄罗斯,对欧洲的意义是确定了欧洲人主导的“新凡尔赛体制”东扩的极限和边界。边界历来都是武力确定的。克里米亚的结局对俄罗斯的意义在于俄罗斯守住了生存底线——底线是俄罗斯未来复兴的基础和前提;对欧洲来说,意味着欧洲东扩已抵极限。从彼得大帝到斯大林,俄罗斯只是在波罗的海东岸地区与欧洲进行过边界拉锯,而在乌克兰,除了在第二次世界大战中的斯大林和冷战时期的戈尔巴乔夫有意收缩和放弃外,俄罗斯在乌克兰这个地方基本没有失过手。从对付拿破仑到希特勒的“胜利”经验中,西方人明白,在陆军可以发挥作用的近地,俄国人往往可以完胜。黑海离俄罗斯太近且陆地相连,陆军可以直接进驻;而西方海权国家在此则鞭长莫及。克里米亚对俄罗斯是生死之地,而对欧洲则是重要利益点,为了它,俄罗斯会用全部资源,而西方则不会。如果清楚俄罗斯在乌克兰归属的历史,也就知道2014年乌克兰事件意味着俄国反击欧洲东扩的历史才真正开始。乌克兰事件的影响是全球性的,其中的一些经验教训对中国而言,是有警示意义的。     

Overcoming the division bloc and its limitations: a Gramscian approach to South Korean social formation

Abstract

Colonialism affects post-colonial social formations in a variety of ways. Japanese colonial rule had a far-reaching influence on South Korean post-colonial social formation. Most legacies of colonialism diminished as time went by, but one legacy of colonialism continued or even increased its effects on the South Korean political economy from the 1960s – namely, the division of Korea. This article provides an alternative Gramscian approach to the analysis of the social formation of South Korea, with due consideration of the division of the peninsula. For that purpose, it introduces the concept of a division bloc, adapting Gramsci’s concept of a historical bloc to develop an analysis of a social formation that is unique to South Korea. Then, I explicate the two events that have been most damaging for the division bloc – the 1997 economic crisis and the 1998–2007 inter-Korean reconciliation – describing them as an organic crisis and a hegemonic project, respectively. Following this, I present reasons why the counter-hegemonic efforts of liberal nationalists to overcome the division bloc failed.     

The charismatic leadership of the ECB presidency: A language-based analysis

There is little doubt that the European Central Bank (ECB), and in particular its presidency, has taken the lead in tackling the euro crisis. But can this leadership be also characterised as charismatic? This article answers the question by focusing on language – a key component as well as a reliable indicator of charisma. By means of a software-assisted content analysis of the entire corpus of ECB presidential speeches, it is found that the crisis has indeed led to the emergence of the Bank's presidency as a charismatic euro leader. This in turn confirms the recent politicisation of the ECB, but at the same time might be seen as mitigating the problems related to the Bank's democratic deficit, to the extent that charisma can be seen, from a Weberian standpoint, as an alternative source of political legitimacy.     

Making Sense of Turkey’s Reaction to the Qatar Crisis

ABSTRACT

When the Qatar crisis erupted in June 2017, Turkey quickly sided with Qatar, sending tons of food supplies and deploying troops in the Emirate. Yet, from a purely geopolitical and economic perspective, Turkey would have been expected not to take sides given its much larger trade relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and their political clout in the region and beyond. It seems that the path dependence in bilateral relations between Turkey and Qatar pre-ordained the former’s reaction. More specifically, by the time the Gulf crisis erupted, Turkey and Qatar had already developed a special relationship, which strongly affected Turkey’s pro-Qatar stance.     

Institutional journalism in a revolutionary crisis: the press as an aide to the Muslim Brotherhood 2011–2012

This article is based on the hypothesis that the Egyptian institutional media played an active role in the Egyptian ‘Arab Spring’ revolution in 2011 and analyzes how Egypt's official newspapers constructed and presented a moderate and positive image of the Muslim Brotherhood (hereinafter the Brotherhood) despite the fact that they had labeled the Brotherhood ‘the outlawed movement’ a year earlier. In order to examine whether their attitudes changed after the downfall of the Mubarak regime, a critical discourse analysis of newspaper texts has been made of the news columns written throughout 2011 of two of the most popular Egyptian newspapers – al-Ahram (n = 115) and al-Gumhuriyya (n = 94) both of which identify with the Egyptian government's official policy. In addition, an analysis made of three of the Brotherhood's publications (n = 72) (N = 281) revealed that the Brotherhood exploited the printed media not only to replace the regime but also to gain control of its narrative. Ultimately, by controlling the shaping of public opinion, the media contributed to the drawing of a parallel between the motivation that formed the basis of the mass protest and the Brotherhood's agenda.     

The March Towards Post‐Democracy,Ten Years On

Events since I published my book Post‐democracy in 2004 suggest that democracy continues to decline in effectiveness in those parts of the world where it has been most strongly established. The global financial crisis, the consequent euro crisis, the likely shape of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and growing evidence of the political power of giant mass media corporations all suggest that the dominant forces in today's politics are not those of democratic will. Movements like Syriza in Greece possibly suggest a democratic reawakening, but that is too early to determine. Meanwhile, it is important also to be aware of democracy's limits, and to try to resolve the problem of post‐democracy by extending its reach beyond its competence.     

Keynes,Friedman, or Monnet? Explaining parliamentary voting behaviour on fiscal aid for euro area member states

This article investigates the determinants of parliamentary support for international fiscal aid. Departing from the literature on presidential systems, it analyses an exemplary case of a parliamentary system, Germany. Two theoretical accounts are distinguished. The first perceives MPs as policy-seekers and focuses on the positioning of government and opposition parties and individual MPs on an economic left?right and a pro- versus anti-EU dimension. The second regards MPs as vote-seekers and presumes an electoral district connection. The statistical analysis of a new data-set containing information on 17 Bundestag roll-call votes from 2009 to 2015 finds support for the first account: voting in favour of fiscal aid measures is mainly driven by government membership and EU support. By contrast, neither economic ideologies, nor district or mandate characteristics influence support for fiscal aid. The article contributes to a growing literature on the domestic politics of international political economy.