制约俄罗斯能源战略与外交实施的因素探析

“能源超级大国”俄罗斯于2003年5月出台了《俄罗斯2020年前能源战略》,使油气能源成为实现国家外交战略目标的重要手段。俄罗斯政府在推行能源外交过程中,受到以下四个方面因素的影响与制约:第一,油气工业本身存在一些结构性问题;第二,在管理体制方面存在诸多问题;第三,国际市场能源价格变动对能源出口战略造成直接影响;第四,地缘政治也是掣肘能源外交的重要因素。因此,如果俄罗斯政府在能源战略上出现重大判断和运作失误,也可能给外交带来负面影响。     

The foreign policy and diplomatic attributes of a developmental state: South Africa as case study

With South Africa having declared itself a developmental state, this paper posits that if a developmental state is one that drives development, then the foreign policy of such a state should pursue development as one of its most important goals. Similarly the diplomatic corps of such a state should prioritise economic, commercial, para- and public diplomacy as drivers of diplomacy. In answering the question, ‘What should be the foreign policy and diplomatic attributes of a developmental state?’, the authors, through an exploratory approach, seek to analyse how well the state has fared in achieving this objective. To be a successful developmental state, a strategic capacity should exist and a clear strategic conception of the state's national interest should be formulated. Old paradigms about the role and functions of the diplomatic corps are challenged and a meritocratic diplomatic corps is strongly advocated to support the state's declared developmental goals.     

The iteration deficit in responsive regulation: Are regulatory ambassadors an answer?

One reason that regulation is difficult is that repeated encounters between regulator and regulatee are rare. We suggest diplomacy as a model for reconfiguring regulatory institutions in response. Ambassadors for Regulatory Affairs who would be agents for all state regulatory agencies could be based in most large firms and small and medium enterprises that pose unusual regulatory risks. In rural towns, police would be trained as regulatory ambassadors. Just as a US Secretary of State can launch a “diplomatic surge” in Myanmar from 2009, so regulatory surges are possible in market sectors of high risk or high opportunity. We propose strategies of indirect reciprocity as a way in which reciprocity that is only episodic in these strategic ways can promote more general responsiveness. Indirect reciprocity is reciprocity that we do not personally experience, but learn from the experience of a culture. This means that so long as we sustain regulation as a relational as opposed to a purely technocratic process, indirect reciprocity might civilize regulatory compliance in an historical process informed by the theories of Elias and Putnam.     

21世纪日本对外能源战略

本文依据关于日本能源方面的新数据,揭示了日本能源进口、利用效率、能源结构和战略储备等新情况。阐述了日本的新国家能源战略,及其基于这一战略的对外能源战略和能源外交。分析日本实行对能源生产国家进行大规模能源合作与国际能源协调的外交政策。提出了包括实现能源来源多元化、加强与传统油气重点地区及国家关系等在内的日本国际能源战略五大方向。并对日本的国际能源战略的动机、效果和战略的恰当与否进行了深入评析。     

‘The highest flights of circumlocutory art’: Britain,Latvia and Recognizing the Soviet Annexation of 1940

The British Government never recognized the Soviet annexation of the Baltic States in June 1940, but almost did so early in 1942 and was ready to do so again in 1944, when it took at face value Stalin's revision of the Soviet constitution. The result was ‘trouble’ from the Baltic ambassadors in London, particularly the Latvian ambassador. The British Government changed its stance in autumn 1945 when the revisions to the Soviet constitution proved to be sham. Thereafter British policy amounted to procrastination, as the developing Cold War prevented a final post-war settlement.     

中国周边形势新变化与周边命运共同体构建

2017年以来,中国周边安全和经济形势发生重大变化。在安全上,美国以推动"印太"战略、强化美日和美韩同盟、借议题拉拢东盟等手段将战略布局深度集中到中国的周边地区;法国、英国、德国、欧盟也紧随其后,开始深度介入"印太"地区的经济合作、安全事务和互联互通进程。在经济上,全球化已进入"慢速"阶段且越来越以区域化的方式展开;而机器人、3D打印技术和可再生能源的发展和运用将继续推动区域化进程,周边国家与中国的经济联系对双方来说都更为重要。无论是在安全上还是在经济上,周边地区对中国发展的重要性都在迅速上升。中国应更加重视周边外交在总体外交布局中的地位,要总结历史和当代中国营造良好周边环境的经验;争取处理好中美日、中美韩、中日韩、中俄印等一些大三角关系;将周边地区打造成为中国构建新发展格局的节点和高质量推动"一带一路"建设的引领示范地区;积极提供地区公共产品,推动构建周边命运共同体。     

Kenya's foreign policy in context (1963–2015)

Kenya matters regionally and globally. It is the economic powerhouse of East Africa and a long-standing hub for multilateral diplomacy; its positioning in a turbulent region has fashioned its profile as an anchor state in African peace and security. Until recently, Kenya's foreign policy orientation has situated it as a benign regional leader, but pressing developments in the regional and international environments have edged it towards a more assertive foreign policy position. This study constitutes a multilevel review of Kenya's foreign policy in the period 1963–2015, beginning with Jomo Kenyatta through to the current president, Uhuru Kenyatta. After evaluating contexts pertinent to the analysis of Kenya’s foreign policy, the fundamental principles, objectives and pillars of the current foreign policy are unpacked.     

South Africa and Japan: maintaining a difficult friendship

Japan's economic and political relationship with South Africa has been characterised historically by ambiguity. Throughout the twentieth century, economic ties were underpinned by mercantilist and strategic considerations. During apartheid, this placed Japan in an uneasy position as it sought to balance a relationship of expediency with wider foreign policy objectives in the rest of Africa and beyond. The demise of apartheid created the space for new forms of engagement centred on the pursuit of cognate goals. This has seen the intensification and deepening of economic ties in particular. Yet relations, especially at the political and diplomatic levels, have also been more complex than anticipated, and in recent years, the rise in Africa of other players from Asia and the Global South has had a bearing on South Africa–Japan ties. In this paper, it is argued that two related dynamics pivoting on policy elites’ changing conceptions (or self-view) of the nature of the state they are running and its place in the wider world order help explain the post-apartheid evolution of the South Africa–Japan relationship. First, there has been an apparent shift in South African foreign policy elites’ self-view, mediated by a changing systemic context. The development and manifestation over time of a stronger Global South self-conception in South African foreign policy, fashioned in juxtaposition to what have been considered in the past key Global North relationships, had direct consequences for South Africa–Japan ties. Second, meso- and micro-level dynamics – the role of the general operations in the diplomatic (i.e. bureaucratic) arena, and the personalities and shifting political preferences of individual executive leaders – had major impacts on how South Africa engaged with Japan in the past two decades.     

Europe under occupation: the European diplomatic community of practice in the Jerusalem area

ABSTRACT

This article shows how the existence of a community of European practitioners in the Jerusalem area gives substance to the European stance on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. The often-stated European Union (EU) support for a two-state solution could appear meaningless in the absence of peace negotiations. However, European diplomats (i.e. diplomats of EU member states and EU officials) in the East Jerusalem–Ramallah area are committed to specific practices of political resistance to Israeli occupation and recognition of Palestinian institutions. These practices have led not only to a specific political geography of diplomacy, but also to a community of practice, composed of European diplomats and based on their daily experience of resisting occupation and bestowing recognition. It is this group of officials who represent and actively “do” Europe’s position and under occupation.     

试论新加坡现实主义外交的思想基础

李光耀的外交思想有两个核心,一个是地区外交,另一个是大国外交。在地区层次上,李光耀主张地区优先,注重发展与本地区,特别是周边邻国之间的友好合作关系。在大国层次上,李光耀欢迎大国势力进驻东南亚,形成均势态势,使新加坡在国际关系格局中获得最大的回旋余地。