基于现金流量的财务风险预警体系探析

国内外研究表明,现金流量在财务困境企业与非财务困境企业之间有显著差异,现金流量具有财务预警能力。从现金流量的角度,在对现有的财务风险预警模型比较分析的基础上,研究建立基于现金流量的财务风险预警体系是非常必要的。     

高校学生工作新闻发言人危机处理的媒体应对策略

近年来,高校危机事件频发,引起了社会各方的广泛关注。危机事件如果处理不当,高校多年来建立起来的良好形象会因此受到重创。高校学生工作新闻发言人要掌控学生工作条线的危机事件,谙熟新闻媒体建构与再现危机事件的基本原理与方法,在集体把关的基础上采取相应的危机处理与媒体应对策略。     

金融危机中避免失业减少裁员之策——德国的对策

金融危机席卷全球,各国面临着同样的问题:经济萎缩,产量下滑,就业困难。德国劳动法框架内避免或者减少裁员的做法主要是:在工作量减少时,采取放弃加班,减少使用劳务派遣工,消耗时间账户的盈余,预支年休假,实行短时工作制或者减时减薪等措施。在无法避免裁员时,通过制定"社会计划",给予失业金救济金,以减少对员工的不利影响。     

警察临战:和谐目标下的危机管理

加强公共危机管理是构建和谐社会的重要内容。警察临战是公共危机管理的重要组成部分,它为公共危机管理决策提供服务,为公共危机管理提供资源保障,它是公共危机管理的重要手段。危机管理是警察临战学的理论基础。     

从《反洗钱法》看我国洗钱罪立法的演进及完善

当前,洗钱犯罪已经成为各国普遍面临的难题,它不但给犯罪所得的黑钱披上了合法的外衣,为国家追查相关上游犯罪设置了障碍,而且为犯罪分子继续甚至扩大犯罪提供了条件与机会。如何对之进行有效打击,是各国都在努力探究的问题。本文从我国洗钱罪的立法历程入手,通过中外立法例的比较,指出我国洗钱罪立法上的不足,并提出今后应当完善的方向。     

Dodging the bullet: How crises trigger technocrat‐led governments

Governments led by nonpartisan, ‘technocratic’ prime ministers are a rare phenomenon in parliamentary democracies, but have become more frequent since the late 1980s. This article focuses on the factors that lead to the formation of such cabinets. It posits that parliamentary parties with the chance to win the prime ministerial post will only relinquish it during political and economic crises that drastically increase the electoral costs of ruling and limit policy returns from governing. Statistical analyses of 469 government formations in 29 European democracies between 1977 and 2013 suggest that political scandals and economic recessions are major drivers of the occurrence of technocratic prime ministers. Meanwhile, neither presidential powers nor party system fragmentation and polarisation have any independent effect. The findings suggest that parties strategically choose technocrat‐led governments to shift blame and re‐establish their credibility and that of their policies in the face of crises that de‐legitimise their rule.     

Crises and unpredictability in developing countries

Developing countries have suffered most of the financial crises in the context of the process of economic and financial globalisation. Both current and previous crises have revealed that unpredictability is a feature common to all the episodes which occurred during the process of globalisation. Although certain alarms went off, any of those external financial crises were actually predicted by the advanced methods in use for prediction and country risk analysis. Taking into consideration the information above, the aim of this paper is to check the ability to foresee external financial crises in developing countries of both the country risk index published by Euromoney and the Credit Ratings variable included therein. We have focused on the external financial crises that took place between 1992 and 2011, that is, in a full globalisation era. The results are negative. It appears that neither the index nor the sovereign ratings are able to reflect early enough the vulnerabilities that arise previously to the setting off the crisis episodes. This leads us to conclude that the existing models of country risk have limits. Thus, it would necessary to develop new instruments to measure this risk, considering uncertainty as an essential feature of the current economic and financial environment.     

Where Do We Go from Here?

The left needs a fundamental rethinking of its politics for a new era. The first task is to understand the contemporary conjuncture: the dynamic combination of events and circumstances which structure a political settlement. Two such conjunctures have occurred in recent history. The first produced the postwar welfare settlement of 1945, which broke down in the economic crisis of the 1970s. The second took shape in the 1980s around the revival of liberal market economics and what became known as Thatcherism. It failed following the 2008 financial crash, and has begun to break apart with the vote to leave the EU. New political and cultural faultlines are confounding the orthodoxies of the governing class and cutting across the partisan loyalties of the main political parties. They herald the renewal of politics. But Labour is on the edge of an abyss. This article considers what the left can learn from Labour's previous periods of defeat and revisionism, and suggests where—if it survives—it should go next.     

The political and economic causes of satisfaction with democracy in Spain – a twofold panel study

This study tests the links between political and economic performance and satisfaction with democracy (SWD) in Spain. Contrary to the dominant theoretical paradigm that explains the aggregate evolution of and the individual-level differences in SWD mainly by means of economic factors, the article presents evidence that evaluations of the political process are equally relevant to account for both changes in individuals’ SWD over time and the evolution of SWD at the national level. Unlike most existing literature, this study supports its argument by combining analyses of a micro-level panel dataset (CIUPANEL) and of a pooled aggregate-level panel dataset based on the Spanish samples in the Eurobarometer and the Latinobarómetro between 1986 and 2014.     

How the City of London lost at Brexit: a historical perspective

The nature of the City of London as an offshore financial centre has long made London dependent on the British state providing protection from external political regulation, even as London’s foreign currency business separated its interests from British governments’ economic policy preoccupations. Since the 2008 crash and the onset of the eurozone crisis, London has faced threats to both its autonomy from external regulatory demands and to its offshore business interests at the same time as the long-standing external statecraft of British governments around EU membership has broken down. The Cameron governments’ efforts to protect the City within the European Union under political conditions that were transformed by the eurozone crisis exposed the limits of Britain’s position as a member of the European Union. When David Cameron then tried to resolve the problem of EU membership through a referendum he made it extremely difficult to defend the City’s broader commercial interests in the Single European Market because freedom of movement issues weighed significantly more in British domestic politics than financial services.