略论21世纪的世界大趋势

本世纪最后10年发生了苏联解体、海湾战争、科索沃、危机、南斯拉夫分裂、东南亚金融危机、欧洲统一、北约东扩、美日安全同盟再定义等全球性事件,这些事件标志着冷战时代的结束.21世纪,世界政治经济形势将呈现全球化趋势加强、世界经济欣欣向荣的局面,世界和平仍可确保.     

维和行动与国家主权

在尊重国家主权的基础上,维和行动形成了同意、中立、自卫等基本原则.实践中,维和行动在这些基本原则的指导下,为解决国际争端作出了巨大贡献,其本身也不断得到丰富.然而由于国际形势的复杂性,加之维和行动本身的缺陷,使之在发展过程中出现了蜕变现象.为了促进维和行动的健康发展,第一,在处理国家冲突中,仍要强调对国家主权原则的严格遵守;第二,各国共同协商,完善维和行动的法治化;第三,明确维和行动所处的地位,不能对之期望过高;第四,应支持维和行动的合理变革.     

Leonard Woolf,the League of Nations and Peace Between the Wars

Co‐founding The Political Quarterly was one among many of Leonard Woolf's achievements during a long career as a progressive political thinker and publicist, particularly in the field of international affairs. To mark the centenary of the publication of International Government, his most innovative and influential work on the subject, this article seeks to assess Woolf's contribution. It examines the Fabian background to Woolf's work, his support for and approach to the League of Nations and his commitment to collective security as an approach to peace. Through a broader understanding of the League it argues that certain failings in the area of collective security, however profound, should not be permitted to blight an otherwise impressive intellectual legacy.     

Measuring the Ambivalence of Religion: Introducing the Religion and Conflict in Developing Countries (RCDC) Dataset

Despite ample anecdotal evidence, previous research on violent conflict has found little evidence that religion is an important factor in organized violence. Quantitative work in this area has been largely confined to the interreligious character of conflict and measures of religious diversity, and has strongly neglected the peace aspect of religion. The Religion and Conflict in Developing Countries (RCDC) dataset helps to fill this gap with innovative and fine-grained data for 130 developing countries between 1990 and 2010. RCDC includes four types of religious violence (assaults on religious targets, attacks by religious actors, clashes between religious communities, and clashes with the state). In addition, RCDC contains data on interreligious networks and peace initiatives. This article demonstrates the usefulness of RCDC by applying our data to a preliminary analysis. The results indicate that interreligious networks are a reaction to identity overlaps and previous interreligious conflict.     

Dealing with the Ambivalent Dragon: Can Engagement Moderate China’s Strategic Competition with America?

Can US engagement moderate China’s strategic competition with America? This study indicates that the answer is a qualified yes. Under unipolarity, a rising state may face both incentives to reach an accommodation with the hegemon and to expand its own stature and influence against the hegemonic dominance. The ambivalence of its intentions is structurally induced and reflects its uncertain stake in the hegemonic order. Consequently, a strategy of engagement may help the hegemon to promote cooperation over competition in dealing with an ascending power, but it does not necessarily eliminate the structural incentives for the competition. Against this theoretical backdrop, this study utilizes both qualitative and quantitative research to demonstrate that China’s reaction to American preeminence has long been marked by a profound ambivalence. Specifically, the findings suggest that while US engagement has some restraining impact on China’s competitive propensity, Beijing will continue to hedge against American hegemony, as its capabilities grow, by solidifying its diplomatic and strategic association with the developing world.     

对我国在建设责任政府过程中加强居安思危未雨绸缪能力建设的思考

建设责任政府是我国转变政府职能的重要内容,而要建立责任政府,就不能仅仅关注于对问题的解决及出现问题后的责任追究,它还必须更关注于对问题的预防,对潜在危机的消除。这就必须加强政府居安思危、未雨绸缪的能力建设。为此,政府不仅要提高领导者的相关素质,更重要的是要创新体制和机制,要在建立有效的政策监督、评估机制、建立权责明确的组织体系、加强政策研究机构建设等方面加大力度。     

关于时代主题的再思考

时代主题是对时代发展进程的深入把握。时代主题内容的确定,必须以时代特定发展阶段的主要矛盾为依据。只有这样,我们才能深刻领会将和平与发展概括为现阶段时代主题的必然性与科学性,也才能对当前时代主题是否发生了变化作出正确的回答。     

The Northern Ireland Peace Process in an Age of Austerity

The steady drip of dissident Republican attacks forms the backdrop to this special issue of Political Quarterly. Moreover, this comes at a time of economic austerity, when Northern Ireland faces unprecedented cuts to its public sector‐dominated economy. The economic crisis in the South adds an additional layer of uncertainty to the picture. In the past, economic deprivation has been associated with conflict in Northern Ireland and elsewhere. Might the peace dividend and constitutional settlement which have underpinned the Northern Ireland ‘miracle’ since 1994 be under threat? Or is there now sufficient momentum in both of Northern Ireland's main ethnic communities that such an outcome can be safely averted? This paper summarises the thinking of our symposium and special issue on this topic, updating our picture of the Northern Ireland peace process.     

中国和平发展与东北亚地区安全的理性思考

求和平、促发展、谋合作,是不可阻挡的历史潮流,为此,要努力建设一个持久和平、共同繁荣的和谐世界。东北亚地区构成中国生存与发展的基本环境,东北亚稳定与否,是影响中国国家安全与社会发展的直接外部条件。和平发展对实现中国的全面发展和维护东北亚地区安全与世界和平意义重大。中国在东北亚的安全战略是：发展睦邻友好关系,稳定周边安全环境;和平解决朝核危机,稳定朝鲜半岛局势;提倡新安全观,探索建立新的安全合作机制。     

Returning to the Original Point of Normalization of China-Japan Relations and Renewing Peaceful and Friendly Relations between Governments

正Japan and China are neighbors that cannot move away from each other.Thus,it’s quite natural that there are quarrels between them because we are so close to each other.There is no other option between Japan and China except peace and friendship.On the occasion of the 3rd Anniversary of the normalization of Japan-China diplomatic relations on September 29,1975,in order to solidify the