Information‐Theoretical Assessment of the Performance of Likelihood Ratio Computation Methods

Performance of likelihood ratio (LR) methods for evidence evaluation has been represented in the past using, for example, Tippett plots. We propose empirical cross‐entropy (ECE) plots as a metric of accuracy based on the statistical theory of proper scoring rules, interpretable as information given by the evidence according to information theory, which quantify calibration of LR values. We present results with a case example using a glass database from real casework, comparing performance with both Tippett and ECE plots. We conclude that ECE plots allow clearer comparisons of LR methods than previous metrics, allowing a theoretical criterion to determine whether a given method should be used for evidence evaluation or not, which is an improvement over Tippett plots. A set of recommendations for the use of the proposed methodology by practitioners is also given.     

Probabilistic Classification of Age by Third Molar Development: The Use of Soft Evidence

Abstract: This study introduces a method to classify individuals according to an age threshold, given sex and third molars’ dental maturity measured on the Demirjian scale by expressing uncertainty on dental evidence (soft evidence). We introduced a procedure to learn the parameters of the Naïve Bayes model, and we discussed two classification rules. The model was estimated and tested on 559 Italians aged 16–22. Two experts provided the dental evaluations, and the model was estimated for each of them. We evaluated the coherence of the evidence provided by the experts. Some indexes have been proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the models, emphasizing how the experts’ ability and the technology affect the results. We introduced two benchmarks, one based on the sample distribution per sex and age: in this case, probability of correct classification increases 22% and the proportion of false adults impressively decreases 80.2%; the other benchmark, obtained by simulating hard evidence, shows how the use of soft evidence increases the proportion of correct classification 3.1% and decreases the crucial proportion of false adults about 20%. Similarly, the proportion of false minors decreases about 5.3%.     

The Reliability of the Greulich and Pyle Atlas When Applied to a Modern Scottish Population

This study examines the reliability of age estimation utilizing the Greulich and Pyle atlas in relation to a modern Scottish population. A total of 406 left‐hand/wrist radiographs (157 females and 249 males) were age‐assessed using the Greulich and Pyle atlas. Analysis showed that there was a strong correlation between chronological age and estimated age (females R² = 0.939, males R² = 0.940). When age groups were broken down into year cohorts, the atlas over‐aged females from birth until 13 years of age. The pattern for males showed that the atlas under‐estimated age until 13 years of age after which point it consistently over‐aged boys between 13 and 17 years of age. This study showed that the Greulich and Pyle atlas can be applied to a modern population but would recommend that any analysis takes into account the potential for over‐ and under‐aging shown in this study.     

工农业协调发展的体制演进考察

我国工农业发展与资源配置方式直接相关。计划经济体制下形成城乡工农业部门资源配置的隔离格局,造成农业生产的"内卷化"及城市工业低效率和高消耗的恶性循环;市场取向改革条件下形成城乡工农业部门资源配置的双向互动格局;市场机制作用下农村和农业资源向城市和非农产业逆向流动;以工哺农背景下的包容性增长体制使工农业部门资源配置和流动趋向协调。     

我国上市公司融资偏好的经济伦理探析

我国上市公司偏好于股权融资,这会对公司经营业绩、治理机制以及社会经济事业产生负面影响。控股股东义利观的倒置会造成公司经营业绩的下滑及公司治理机制的恶化,管理机构义利观模糊状态下的监管失位则会导致资本市场的不健康发展及公众利益受损．原因就在于股权分置。流通股股东与非流通股股东价值理念的冲突是股权融资偏好形成并发展的内生因素,而政府习惯性干预市场的思维方式则是外生因素。只有切实提高上市公司股东及政府经济伦理意识并完善以职业经理人市场和监管制度为代表的制度安排,才能改变股权融资偏好状况。实现经济的可持续发展。     

《特殊痕迹检验》课程考核模式的改革与实践

考核模式改革是我校＂教学重心转变＂工作中教学模式改革的重点和核心内容之一。本文通过对《特殊痕迹检验》课程考核模式的改革与实践,提出了适应本专业学生教学练战一体化的考核模式。     

经济犯罪的现代化变迁动力——兼析经济犯罪的防治实践

随着我国社会主义市场经济的进步和发展,社会现代化建设的水平不断提高,受经济形态和社会生产方式的影响,经济犯罪不断的出现,且形式多样,给我国经济的发展带来了极大的影响,导致经济犯罪呈现出不断变迁的趋势.引起这种变化的因素有很多,其中最主要的当属经济转型、社会结构调整以及社会控制.鉴于经济犯罪带来的巨大影响,我国政府必须要高度重视对经济犯罪的查处与防治,确保我国经济的安全,保证国民经济的正常发展.     

Creating a safer working environment through psychological assessment: A review of a measure of safety consciousness

This article explores how organizations can prevent workplace accidents through the psychological assessment of employees. We present a model of employee safety consciousness consisting of personality and attitudinal variables associated with a higher risk of accident involvement. A safety conscious employee is described as one who: has an internal locus of control in matters related to workplace safety, has a high tolerance for work‐related stress, and avoids engaging in high‐risk, sensation‐seeking activities. Relevant research is reviewed and applications of the safety consciousness construct to hiring, promotion and training are discussed.     

The Paradoxical Effects of CHD Risk Factors in the Oldest Old

No abstract available for this article.     

转变行政管理思路 发展市场经济制度——皖粤黔川稳增长和转方式调结构调研报告

2012年经济增长下行压力加大,各地方采取了积极有效应对措施,实现经济平稳发展。该文根据对皖粤黔川四省的调研,在肯定成绩的同时,也找出了一些存在的困难和问题,并从长期困扰中国社会主义市场经济发展的思维习惯、管理体制、政策法规和运作路径入手,提出转变行政管理思路、改善行政工作方法等对策建议。