探索精神与中国特色社会主义——学习胡锦涛“12·18”讲话笔记

前无古人的中国特色社会主义事业理所当然地要求强化探索精神,在改革开放取得重大成就更需要深入推进的时刻,回顾历史选行深刻反思,更是针对新的实际,更好地发扬探索精神,以进一步的认识和把握人类社会发展规律、社会主义建设规律、共产党执政规律,才能不断地把中国特色社会主义事业椎向推进。     

Partisan effects in morality policy making

Current comparative policy research gives no clear answer to the question of whether partisan politics in general or the partisan composition of governments in particular matter for different morality policy outputs across countries and over time. This article addresses this desideratum by employing a new encompassing dataset that captures the regulatory permissiveness in six morality policies that are homosexuality, same‐sex partnership, prostitution, pornography, abortion and euthanasia in 16 European countries over five decades from 1960 to 2010. Given the prevalent scepticism about a role for political parties for morality policies in existing research, this is a ‘hard’ test case for the ‘parties do matter’ argument. Starting from the basic theoretical assumption that different party families, if represented in national governments to varying degrees, ought to leave differing imprints on morality policy making, this research demonstrates that parties matter when accounting for the variation in morality policy outputs. This general statement needs to be qualified in three important ways. First, the nature of morality policy implies that party positions or preferences cannot be fully understood by merely focusing on one single cleavage alone. Instead, morality policy is located at the interface of different cleavages, including not only left‐right and secular‐religious dimensions, but also the conflicts between materialism and postmaterialism, green‐alternative‐libertarian and traditional‐authoritarian‐nationalist (GAL‐TAN) parties, and integration and demarcation. Second, it is argued in this article that the relevance of different cleavages for morality issues varies over time. Third, partisan effects can be found only if individual cabinets, rather than country‐years, are used as the unit of analysis in the research design. In particular, party families that tend to prioritise individual freedom over collective interests (i.e., left and liberal parties) are associated with significantly more liberal morality policies than party families that stress societal values and order (i.e., conservative/right and religious parties). While the latter are unlikely to overturn previous moves towards permissiveness, these results suggest that they might preserve the status quo at least. Curiously, no systematic effects of green parties are found, which may be because they have been represented in European governments at later periods when morality policy outputs were already quite permissive.     

Using self-prophecy to combat vote overreporting on public opinion surveys

Survey researchers have long struggled with respondents who, due to the pressure to adhere to socially desirable norms, erroneously claim to have voted in a previous election. In this paper, we develop a new approach to reducing the overreporting of voting in surveys by leveraging psychological theories that show people have a tendency to follow through on an action once they have predicted their behavior (e.g. Sherman, 1980). Using a survey experiment through the 2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we find that an overwhelming majority of respondents will agree to take an honesty pledge regarding their future vote report. Having pledged their honesty, they then overreport their vote at far lower rates than other survey participants. The observed effects are additive, since previously developed methods of reducing overreporting were present across all conditions. These findings have important implications for studies endeavoring to understand voting behavior and social desirability pressures.     

Smart and secure borders through automated border control systems in the EU? The views of political stakeholders in the Member States

The European Commission launched the “Smart Borders” policy process in 2011 to enhance border security in the European Union (EU) using technologisation and harmonisation. This includes the use of automated border control (ABC) systems. The Member States crucially shape the process, weighing security technologies and costs, privacy and rights, and further institutional choices. We examine the views of political stakeholders in four Member States by conducting a systematic empirical and comparative study unprecedented in the existing, political-theory-inspired research. In our Q methodological experiments, political stakeholders in Finland, Romania, Spain and the UK rank-ordered a sample of statements on Smart Borders, ABC and harmonisation. The factor analysis of the results yielded three main views: the first criticising ABC as a security technology, the second welcoming the security gains of automation and the third opposing harmonised border control. While impeding harmonisation, the results offer a consensus facilitating common policy.     

Is Russia a militocracy? Conceptual issues and extant findings regarding elite militarization

The dominant paradigm for understanding contemporary Russia holds that Vladimir Putin's tenure in office has been accompanied by a massive influx of former KGB and military personnel – so-called “siloviki” – into positions of power and authority throughout the polity and economy. Claims of extensive elite militarization, however, are largely based on the analyses of only one research program and, moreover, the validity of the estimates produced by that research program is open to question on numerous grounds. In this article, we review existing research on elite militarization in Russia; discuss a series of conceptual and empirical issues that need to be resolved if valid and meaningful estimation of military–security representation is to be achieved; introduce new findings; and evaluate the totality of existing evidence regarding whether the Russian state under Putin deserves to be labeled a militocracy. We find that the most straightforward reading of existing data indicates that the percentage of siloviki in the political elite during Putin's first two terms as president was approximately half of that which has been widely reported in both scholarship and the media, and also declined during the Medvedev presidency. In addition, our analysis of a broader cross section of the elite estimates military–security representation during the Putin presidency to have been lower still. Overall, existing data paint a less alarming picture of the depths to which siloviki have penetrated the corridors of power since 2000 than has been commonly portrayed and thereby cast doubt on Russia's status as an “FSB state.” On the other hand, past trends also provide some basis for expecting that the numbers of siloviki will once again rise during Putin's current presidential term.     

Dealing with uncertainty: the illusion of knowledge in the study of counterterrorism effectiveness

Efforts to combat terrorism have become a priority in the security agenda of most countries around the world, while the respective policies, tools and instruments have amounted to significant costs. In this article, we review the literature on counterterrorism (CT) effectiveness and draw a series of rather negative conclusions with regard to the reliability of our knowledge in this area. We find that the literature displays case and data selection biases, and the results produced are oftentimes contradictory, mostly due to the use of different indicators. We then propose a conceptualisation of CT effectiveness, which should help to resolve some of the issues outlined. The article concludes by outlining some future research directions that should improve our methodological grasp in the field.     

高职文科专业实践教学课程体系构建与实践教学方法研究

高等职业教育课程目标具有三个特性,即职业性、实践性和开放性.高等职业教育目标要求在人才培养过程中加强实践教学环节,构建实践教学课程体系.文科专业的实践教学课程体系和实践教学方法要在理工科院校“工学结合一体化”课程基础上进行创新,构建既符合高职教育目标又符合文科专业特点的实践课程体系和实践教学方法.     

法律方法的技术意义和规范意义

法学作为科学,是因为法律方法不仅应当,而且事实上能够实现法律的客观性、确定性和安定性。从科学性的角度看,法律方法具有技术意义,并表现在三个方面:实用价值、效率价值和规范价值。法律方法不是一般的技术,而是一种具有规范意义的技术。法律方法的规范意义与实现和维护法治具有内在的关联性,其对法治的功能表现为形式功能、自律功能和批判功能。强调法律方法的规范意义是伸张法治和法律客观性的需要。     

Comparison of Anonymous Versus Confidential Survey Procedures: Effects on Health Indicators in Dutch Adolescents

Self-report questionnaires are frequently used in youth research, but doubt remains whether total anonymity affects the results. This study compared the responses of 704 mainly 16–17-year-old adolescents to self-report measures of various health indicators in 2 groups: anonymous and confidential collection. For most health indicators no significant differences were found. Perceived health, use of alcohol, and aggressive behavior (for boys) were reported significantly less frequently in the confidential group (small effect size). It appeared that pupils with high scores on social desirability do not respond differently at most health indicators in the 2 conditions. For most health characteristics, epidemiologically useful outcomes may be derived from confidential self-report measures, which are also valuable for detecting individual at-risk children. Similar studies in lower grades and other types of education should confirm the results.Youth Department, Municipal Health Service Rotterdam area. Main research interests are emotional and behavioral problems of adolescents, youth health care, monitoring.Youth Department, Municipal Health Service Rotterdam area. Main research interests are emotional and behavioral problems of adolescents, youth health care, monitoring.Research Department, Municipal Health Service Rotterdam area. Major research interests include emotional and behavioral problems of adolescents, suicidal behavior, youth health care, monitoring.     

牵连犯牵连关系和处断原则的理论思辩

对牵连犯本质特征的界定 ,应从其内部特定的质去寻找 ,是正确界定牵连犯特征的逻辑思维的方法论 ;对牵连犯中的牵连关系 ,只有行为人实施数行为时在主观上具有牵连的意图 ,该数行为在法律规定犯罪构成上存在包容或交叉关系 ,才能认为数行为具有牵连关系 ;对牵连犯的处罚 ,应以其社会危害性为基础 ,坚持以择一重罪从重处罚为原则 ,以刑法和司法解释规定数罪并罚为例外的处断原则。