Is China’s rise now stalling?

The variations on power transition theory so widely used to frame analysis of U.S.–China relation tend to assume the inevitability or at least strong probability of China surpassing the United States in economic power if not necessarily military power. In the terminology of social psychology’s attribution theory, China is imputed with the identity of a state that is inevitably rising. The Chinese Communist Party encourages this attribution among Chinese people and foreigners. But China’s economic rise – the foundation of its comprehensive rise – appears to have entered an inflection point in the mid-2010s and may now be stalling. In critical respects, China increasingly resembles the last two countries that ‘attempted’ a globe-level rise: the unsuccessful cases of postwar Japan and the Soviet Union. China’s labor force is shrinking; the country relies excessively on unsustainable debt increases to fuel economic growth; and pollution is seriously harming public health. But even if China’s rise conclusively stalls, it may take quite some time before the Chinese public and outside observers recognize the new reality because of intrinsic biases in the cognitive logic of attributing identities to actors.     

Rural Transformations and Democracy in Northeast Thailand

ABSTRACT

This article analyses the underlying economic, social and political processes that contributed to democratic progress in the rural areas of northeast Thailand. After the 2006 military coup villagers in the region played an important role in anti-coup activities and actively demanded for democratic rule. To defend democratic rule, villagers not only opposed military intervention but also challenged elites, who they considered had masterminded the coup. The coup was a landmark change in terms of the relationship between the highest authority in Thailand and the rural masses. According to the Thai hierarchical order, villagers are regarded as inferior who must obey the elite. Any action that does not conform to this rule is considered morally wrong and to be punished. Why did rural dwellers dare to engage openly in political action that defied the hierarchical order? To comprehend such actions the article examines structural changes in Thailand’s countryside that released villagers from traditional bonds and enabled them to engage in a new form of political mobilisation. It is argued that the emergence of a democratic movement in the rural northeast is a result of two important processes: rural socio-economic transformations and political democratisation.     

吉林省中等收入阶层发展困境研究———基于长吉两地的问卷调查

中等收入阶层占多数的橄榄型社会结构是最有利于社会稳定的结构.目前,我国城市中等收入阶层的规模呈逐步扩大的趋势,但吉林省的中等收入阶层还没有达到占社会人口总数40％的最低线.本文通过对798份有效问卷的分析发现,吉林省中等收入阶层面临着收入水平低和购房、子女教育、家庭社会保障支出压力较大等困境;中等收入阶层发展面临着收入分配、产业结构、市场化进程、全民创业、利益调整等诸多障碍.为此,本文认为,形成扩大中等收入阶层的社会共识,千方百计增加居民收入,拓展社会流动空间,是培育和扩大吉林省中等收入阶层的主要途径.     

China and the middle-income trap: toward a Post Washington,Post Beijing Consensus

Abstract

Over the last 30 years, China has experienced tremendous growth, with many commentators attributing the rapid development to the ‘China Model’ (CM) or the ‘Beijing Consensus’ (BC). However, in recent years growth has slowed and an ever-increasing number of bears are predicting a financial crisis, economic collapse, and a very hard landing, perhaps even a lost decade a la Japan. All of this has led to heated debate about whether the CM is now exhausted, whether China is caught in ‘the middle-income trap’ (MIT) and whether a new model is needed for the next phase of development where China attempts the difficult transition from middle-income country to high-income country status. This article addresses the following five sets of issues. First, is there a CM or BC? If so, what does it entail, and does it differ from the model followed by other successful countries in East Asia? Second, is there a MIT? Is China stuck in the MIT or perhaps multiple MITs? Third, what adjustments to the economic model are required for China to continue its long march toward becoming a high-income country? Fourth, are political, legal and social reforms also required? If so, will all reforms proceed simultaneously or are reforms likely to be sequenced, with adjustments to the economy preceding reforms in other areas? Fifth, is there now a global convergence on a new model of development for developing countries – a Post-Washington, Post-Beijing Consensus?     

论诱惑侦查与刑法的关系

诱惑侦查手段在我国和世界许多国家的运用已是不争的事实。但对其基本概念的界定及基本理论的定位还存有重大争议。本文试图对警察圈套和诱惑侦查这两个一直以来颇有争议的问题进行概念上的辨析,并从刑法的角度对诱惑侦查存在的价值进行评析,同时从教唆犯罪的角度对诱惑侦查后果的处理作一设想。     

“发展陷阱”的形成原因分析——兼论中国经济落入发展陷阱的必然性

陷入“发展陷阱”之前的追赶型国家,往往会出现以美元计量的人均名义GDP增长率快于以本币计量的人均实际GDP增长率,这实际上也就是国际相对成本的上升和国际相对竞争力的下降,国内外市场因此会不断被更低收入国家蚕食;人均美元收入的快速提高产生的对生活品质的追求,会导致大量有效需求向发达国家转移。这些表现在企业收支上,也就是成本的提高与收入的减少;在国家层面则表现为外贸收支逆差增加和外汇储备减少或外债增加,由此落入“发展陷阱”。我国目前可能正处在该陷阱的入口。     

Uneven development,inequality and concentration of power: a critique of Thailand 4.0

This article provides a critique of the Thailand 4.0 strategy to push the country out of the middle-income trap through innovation-driven, inclusive and sustainable growth. First, it argues that the policies have insufficiently analysed the persistence of structural hierarchy and uneven development in the global political economy, which will constrain Thailand’s catch-up success in the future. Second, based on writings about progressive mission-led industrial strategies, it is argued that Thailand 4.0 ought to embed a progressive social and environmental agenda more clearly in its industrial strategy. Third, it is argued that Thailand 4.0 neglects to address the high concentration of political and economic power in the country, and also continues to allow unequal access to the policymaking process that has led to socio-environmental problems. Overall, this article argues that Thailand 4.0 will increasingly aggravate the two-tier fragmented nature of the political economic system of Thailand, where few can reap the biggest shares of the surplus and participate in more advanced sectors of the economy. It also calls for a more progressive industrial strategy and an alternative developmental path.     

Between poverty and prosperity: China’s dependent development and the ‘middle-income trap’

Despite China’s rapid economic growth in the past three decades, Chinese officials and experts are increasingly worried that the country is slowly heading towards the ‘middle-income trap’. The fear is that China might suffer the same stagnation and turbulence as Latin American economies did in the 1980s and 1990s. Will China be able to avoid this trap? Building on the insights of world-systems theory, this paper argues that China’s dependent development, although enabling it to escape the ‘poverty trap’, is likely to bog it down in the ‘middle-income trap’. China’s heavy reliance upon foreign technologies and investment has harmful effects on its economy. Dependent development not only increases China’s economic vulnerability but also truncates domestic industries. To escape the trap, the Chinese state should play a more active role in shifting its growth model away from low-end commodity manufacturing to knowledge-based, high value-added activities.     

我国诱惑侦查制度的立法建构

诱惑侦查作为一种特殊的侦查手段,已为我国侦查机关广泛运用,但由于我国的立法对此未作出具体明确的规定,衍生出一系列的问题。因此,我国应在考察、借鉴各主要法治国家处理诱惑侦查经验的基础上,明确承认和规制我国的诱惑侦查,从而促进刑事侦查法制的改进与完善。     

从中等收入陷阱视角看有效市场与有为政府的关系

中共十八届三中全会的决议提到,经济体制改革是全面深化改革的重点,核心问题是处理好政府和市场的关系.全会决议指出,市场在资源配置中起决定性作用,更好地发挥政府的作用.从“基础性”到“决定性”只是几个字的改换,却充分体现了解放思想、实事求是、与时俱进的精神,更为进一步持续健康发展中国经济打下了一个非常坚实的制度基础.本文试分析政府与市场的关系,呼吁将“有效的市场”与“有为的政府”结合,消除政府对市场遗留的干预和扭曲,让资源由市场进行配置,而政府应该在保护产权、维持宏观稳定、克服市场失灵上发挥作用,推动产业、技术、制度等结构的变迁.只有“有效的市场”与“有为的政府”结合,防止政府市场关系失位,才能应对发展中国家都会面临的中等收入陷阱的发展问题.