无就业增长背景下重庆构建和谐社会的对策研究

无就业增长是目前经济学界面临的又一大困惑,而全球金融危机对世界各国经济造成了严重影响,其对就业的破坏性影响更将持续较长时间。重庆作为带动西部地区发展的增长极和国家统筹城乡综合配套改革试验区,迫切需要破解无就业增长难题。本文客观分析了重庆所面临的无就业增长问题,并探索促进重庆经济社会良性发展的思路。     

日本观光立国战略的新内容及其新特点

鸠山内阁成立之后,在其施政纲领《新成长战略基本方针》中,提出了2010年-2020年的旅游发展战略目标,即2020年前争取谤日外国游客达到2500万人次,广义旅游消费总额10万亿日元,增加就业人数56万人。2010年5月17日,国土交通省成长战略会议根据《新成长战略基本方针》的要求,制定了《旅游发展战略计划》,决定实施“三大战略、七大战术”继续推进观光立国的发展。由此,日本观光立国战略具有了新内容和新特点。     

Finding political capital for monetary tightening: Unemployment insurance and partisan monetary cycles

How do governments find the political capital to raise interest rates in pursuit of inflation stabilisation? Against common wisdom, this article shows that the ability of governments to exercise tight monetary policy largely depends on the level of unemployment insurance. Unemployment insurance is particularly useful to social democratic parties since their core constituency – labour – is the hardest hit by economic downturns. Empirical evidence from 17 OECD countries over thirty years demonstrates that high levels of unemployment insurance present a strong incentive for social democratic governments to respond more aggressively to positive changes in inflation. These findings resolve the puzzle of why partisan monetary cycles are not often observed in the literature and have important policy implications, given continued calls for scaling down social insurance.     

DEVELOPMENTAL PATTERNS OF ALCOHOL USE IN RELATION TO THE PERSISTENCE AND DESISTANCE OF SERIOUS VIOLENT OFFENDING AMONG AFRICAN AMERICAN AND CAUCASIAN YOUNG MEN*

This study examined the association of alcohol use with the persistence and desistance of serious violent offending among African American and Caucasian young men from adolescence into emerging adulthood. Five violence groups were defined: nonviolent, late‐onsetters, desisters, persisters, and one‐time offenders. We examined alcohol use trajectories for these groups spanning 12 through 24/25 years of age using a four‐piecewise linear growth model s 12–14, 14–18, 18–21, and 21–24/25 years of age. The persisters and desisters reported the highest levels of drinking at 13 years of age. From 14 to 18 years old, however, the late‐onsetters showed a higher rate of increase in drinking, compared with the persisters and desisters. Starting at 18 years of age, the desisters’ drinking trajectory started to resemble that of the nonviolent group, who showed the highest rate of increase in drinking during emerging adulthood. By 24/25 years of age, the persisters could not be distinguished from the late‐onsetters, but they were lower than the nonviolent and one‐timer groups in terms of their drinking. At 24/25 years old, the desisters were not significantly different from the other violence groups, although they seemed most similar to the nonviolent and one‐timer groups. We found no evidence that the association between drinking and violence differed for African Americans and Caucasians. The findings suggest that yearly changes in alcohol use could provide important clues for preventing violent offending.     

公共教育财政支出与地方经济发展

借助VAR模型,利用C市1979-2009年的教育支出与经济增长数据进行实证研究,发现当期的教育投资的经济增长弹性为0.5451。运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验对C市的教育支出和实际经济增长之间的内在关系进行实证分析,结果表明教育投资与实际经济增长之间存在着明显的互馈关系,并在长期内稳定地存在着协同互动的均衡关系。     

从IMF总裁卡恩案看国际组织的豁免权

国际组织的职能性豁免是随着联合国的建立而确立起来的。国际组织豁免是一种职能性豁免,意味着国际组织职员只有在从事公务行为时才享有豁免权。职能必要是判断公务行为与非公务行为的主要标准。在卡恩案中,卡恩的行为纯属私人事务,与公务职能无关,故不受豁免的保护。     

东北地区消费过度敏感性分析

在东北地区经济发展的历程中,传统经济范式使得消费的拉动效应较弱。通过采用面板数据模型对东北三省消费过度敏感性检验可知,城镇和农村居民的消费过度敏感性系数都较高,当期消费与当期可支配收入之间具有较高的相关性。较高的消费过度敏感性抑制了居民的消费水平,限制了消费对经济的推动力。东北地区要维持健康稳定地发展,需扩大本地区的消费水平,因此要改变居民的传统消费观念和行为,完善消费信贷市场,提供有效的生活保障措施,并维持政策的可持续性。     

宏观经济相互依存与东亚货币合作可行性

东亚地区存在两个层面的宏观经济相互依存。第一个层面是东亚与美国经济的相互依存,第二个层面是东亚区域内部经济的相互依存。全球性金融危机充分体现了东亚和美国之间经济相互依存的不对称性,而这种不对称性是不能够长期持续的,全球性金融危机促使东亚加强区域、国际的经济协调,验证了相互依存理论的合理性。相互依存的东亚需要通过政策的协调解决宏观经济政策的外部性和溢出效应问题,因而东亚地区进行货币合作的可行性较高。     

VEGF在早期心肌梗死死后诊断中的应用

运用免疫组化方法和图像分析与统计学处理系统 ,对人体心脏标本VEGF的表达进行定量研究。结果显示 :心肌梗死组 2 4例心脏标本心肌细胞膜及血管内皮细胞膜均可见棕黄色VEGF强阳性染色 ,有些胞浆也呈阳性 ,尤以心肌梗死灶周围区域心肌细胞为甚 ;在可疑梗死组 2 1例中 ,19例心肌细胞膜及血管内皮细胞膜VEGF强阳性 ,2例为弱阳性 ,未见阴性 ;在正常心脏对照组 16例中 ,仅 1例见心肌细胞膜及血管内皮细胞膜散在棕黄色VEGF弱阳性 ,其余均为阴性。图像分析与统计学处理结果表明 ,对照组VEGF阳性指数 ( 0 3 0± 0 10 )明显低于心肌梗死组 ( 12 46± 3 2 6,P<0 0 1)和可疑梗死组 ( 11 70± 3 5 6,P <0 0 1) ,后两组之间阳性指数无明显差异 (P >0 0 5 )。提示运用免疫组化染色方法结合图像分析处理技术定量检测心肌局部VEGF的表达可望作为因早期心肌缺血导致心脏性猝死死后诊断较为客观的病理形态学指标之一。