PARTICIPATION AND FREQUENCY DURING CRIMINAL CAREERS ACROSS THE LIFE SPAN*

Recent advances and debates surrounding general and developmental as well as static and dynamic theories of crime can be traced to the 1986 National Academy of Science's Report on criminal careers and the discussion it generated. A key point of contention has been regarding the interpretation of the age–crime curve. According to Gottfredson and Hirschi (1986), the decline in the age–crime curve in early adulthood reflects decreasing individual offending frequency (λ) after the peak. Blumstein et al. (1986) claimed that the decline in the aggregate age–crime curve also could be attributable to the termination of criminal careers, and the average value of l could stay constant (or increase with age) for those offenders who remain active after that peak. Using data from the Criminal Career and Life Course Study—including information on criminal convictions across 60 years of almost 5,000 persons convicted in the Netherlands—and applying a two-part growth model that explicitly distinguishes between participation and frequency, the study outlined in this article assessed the participation–frequency debate. Results suggest that the decline in the age–crime curve in early adulthood reflects both decreasing individual offending participation and frequency after the peak, that the probabilities of participation and frequency are significantly related at the individual level, and that sex and marriage influence both participation and frequency.     

影响农民收入持续增长因素的实证分析——以江西为例

农民收入增长问题是＂三农＂问题的核心。影响农民收入增长的因素很多,根据新经济理论和人力资本理论,人力资源才是经济发展的内在原因。本文从经济活动主体——农民自身角度出发,论证开发农村人力资源,即通过人力资本投资,可提高农民素质,形成大量人力资本,是实现农民可持续增收的根本因素。为检验此推断,本文在道格拉斯函数和明塞尔函数的启示下,建立起数学模型,并以江西为例进行实证分析,说明农村人力资源开发确实是影响农民收入持续增长的根本因素。     

VEGF免疫组化染色在冠心病猝死诊断中的应用

运用免疫组化SABC法和图像分析与统计学处理系统 ,对16例冠心病猝死和15例非冠心病猝死对照组尸检心脏标本心肌局部血管内皮生长因子 (VEGF)的表达进行了研究。结果 :16例冠心病猝心脏标本心肌梗死局部心肌均有VEGF的阳性表达 ,尤以心肌梗死灶边缘为甚 ,阳性表达率为100 %。15例非冠心病猝死对照组心脏标本仅有2例心肌局部散在有VEGF弱阳性表达 ,其余为阴性。将免疫组化染色结果进行图像定量分析与统计学处理 ,冠心病猝死组阳性指数为13.68±2.73 ,对照组为2.05±0.84 ,两组结果有极显著性差异 (P<0.01)。本研究结果提示 ,VEGF免疫组化染色可望为冠心病猝死的死后诊断提供一个比较客观的病理形态学依据     

蒙代尔经济理论述评

1999年诺贝尔经济学奖得者罗伯特·蒙代尔首先提出“最优货币区理论”,奠定了欧洲单一货币的思想基础。他率先研究货币政策和财政政策的协同作用,建立蒙代尔—弗莱明模型,奠定了开放经济中货币政策和财政政策之影响的理论基础。另外,他也是通货膨胀、利率和增长理论、国际收支的货币分析法的开创者,并与他人合作共同奠定了供给学派经济学基础。     

优化青少年成长的社会文化环境

青少年成长是一个社会化过程。在影响青少年社会化诸因素中,社会文化是社会化的催化剂,社会文化环境与青少年的健康成长密切相关。当今社会文化环境中的种种不良现象,警示人们,要像关注自然界的“沙尘暴”那样关注危害青少年健康成长的“沙尘暴”,采取切实措施,优化青少年健康成长的社会文化环境。     

Nomadic by nature? Contradictions and precarious work in Mongolian tourism

ABSTRACT

Mongolia's transition to a democratic, market economy has created widespread change, especially among pastoral herders. Pastoralists have been depicted as archaic and independent ‘nomads’ who exist outside the modern economy. Still, pastoral culture is a key asset in tourism products and advertising. Tourism could provide fair economic benefits, but inclusive growth depends on how shareholders participate. Using interviews with tour company employees, I investigate how tour companies incorporate pastoralists into their products. The results demonstrate several barriers to inclusive growth. Companies feel individually responsible for managing tourism assets, and to maintain the guise of pastoral authenticity, they limit pastoralists’ participation in business through informal and contingent work contracts. These contracts reveal problematic asymmetry and give pastoralists little job security, control, or access to employee benefits. These circumstances oppose inclusive growth paradigms and demonstrate elements of precarious work. The shared interest in maintaining pastoral culture may unify this fragmented industry.     

Yield of illicit indoor cannabis cultivation in the Netherlands

To obtain a reliable estimation on the yield of illicit indoor cannabis cultivation in The Netherlands, cannabis plants confiscated by the police were used to determine the yield of dried female flower buds. The developmental stage of flower buds of the seized plants was described on a scale from 1 to 10 where the value of 10 indicates a fully developed flower bud ready for harvesting. Using eight additional characteristics describing the grow room and cultivation parameters, regression analysis with subset selection was carried out to develop two models for the yield of indoor cannabis cultivation. The median Dutch illicit grow room consists of 259 cannabis plants, has a plant density of 15 plants/m(2), and 510 W of growth lamps per m(2). For the median Dutch grow room, the predicted yield of female flower buds at the harvestable developmental stage (stage 10) was 33.7 g/plant or 505 g/m(2).     

人类社会发展观的嬗变

人类社会发展观经历了从经济增长论到增长极限论,再到综合发展观、可持续发展观和科学发展观的演变。这些发展观的演变,反映了人类在自身发展道路上无尽的探索以及在发展问题上认识的不断深化与拓展。     

中国经济增长的主流和行政性虚热

社会经济生活中确实出现了投资和货币规模“超常增长”等虚热的征象。中国增长的加速 ,有其深刻的内在动因 ,不宜全面提高宏观调控的紧度 ,应在强制行政性退热的同时 ,以稳定政策和制度改进扩大市场主导性增长