要素制约与经济增长方式转变

西欧与东亚经济发展的大相径庭证明,由资源短缺所导致的要素制约更容易激励经济增长方式的转变。但要素制约并不必然促使经济增长方式的转变,其前提是必须具有激励创新的制度安排。要素制约下的经济增长方式转变对经济发展的现实启迪是:必须适时主动地提升经济增长方式,提高自主创新能力。     

产业联盟与“能源诅咒”:委内瑞拉与俄罗斯的现代化“宿命”

古典经济学认为,能源大规模出口的财富效应有助于推动出口国的经济增长,然而20世纪70年代以来世界主要能源出口国经济增长普遍放缓甚至停滞的残酷现实表明,丰富的能源很可能并非推动经济增长的"祝福",而是拖累经济的"诅咒"。为了探讨诱使能源出口国陷入"能源诅咒"的原因及其作用机制,本文基于产业联盟理论建立了涵盖能源出口国现代化起点、政体类型、出口条件的分析框架,重点分析上述三个因素对能源产业联盟实力强弱的影响。通过对能源出口国主要政治与经济数据的定量分析以及对委内瑞拉和俄罗斯陷入"能源诅咒"的案例研究,本文发现,能源出口国的现代化起点较晚、实行威权政体、出口条件改善催生了强大的能源产业联盟,并巩固和扩大了其相较于其他产业联盟的实力差距。强大的能源产业联盟贡献了巨额税汇、提供了畸形补贴、左右了选举结果,由此诱使政府与政治家对其形成了病态的依赖,限制了其他产业的发展并最终拖累了经济增长。     

新时代“枫桥经验”——创新性表现及对广州基层社会治理的启示

进入新的历史时期,“枫桥经验”在基层社会治理领域获得了持续的创新与发展,主要体现在:丰富基层社会治理的社会化内涵、积极推进基层社会治理的法治化、以智能化推动基层社会治理“效能革命”,提高基层治理的专业化水平和坚持以党建引领基层治理现代化。基于此分析“枫桥经验”对广州加强和创新基层社会治理的借鉴意义,并提出对“枫桥经验”进行创造性转化,构造广州基层社会治理三个新的“增长点”:扩充基层社会治理目标内涵、激发调动社会要素的活力和注重基层社会治理的“中西贯通”。     

Growth,governance and corruption in Bangladesh: a re-assessment

This paper revisits Bangladesh’s ‘double paradox’ – sustained macroeconomic growth despite the poor state of governance and a high level of corruption – by critically reviewing trends in governance and corruption indicators during 1990–2017 vis-à-vis other South Asian countries. In addition, we draw upon data from a purposefully designed survey of manufacturing firms to assess the state of economic governance in the export-oriented ready-made garments (RMG) sector, the country’s main source of foreign exchange and driver of economic growth. Consistent with the country’s poor ranking in a host of indicators of investment climate and corruption perception, in-depth interviews of RMG factory owners confirm the high cost of doing business in various forms. We also find no evidence of growth-mediated improvements in indicators of governance. On the contrary, our review of print media reports suggests a growing governance deficit in the country’s financial sector. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for the country’s future growth as well as performance of the RMG sector.     

Policy space under a constraining combination – open economies,austerity and small island states

Small island developing states (SIDS) face significant economic, social and environmental challenges. Current mainstream approaches to SIDS recognise these limitations and thus promote increased economic integration into the international economy to provide the governments with resources and power to counter the effects of these challenges. Yet these remedies have so far led to high levels of deficits and high levels of indebtedness, as well as high levels of vulnerability and dependence on key sectors that offer very income- and economically sensitive products and services. In addition, and in assessing the experience of Caribbean SIDS, these remedies have led to diminishing government policy space. This has in turn contributed to the lack of real innovation in the way Caribbean SIDS interact with the volatile international market. While much has been written about the economic impact of open markets and the inherent weaknesses within SIDS, the analysis herein allows for the development of a more comprehensive assessment of the implications for the SIDS’ policy space as well as their ability to regain it and develop innovative approaches that avoid uniquely reactionary measures to the current international economy and its gyrations.     

The politics of bank ownership and currency policies in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper argues that state-owned, private domestic, and foreign banks have different preferences for exchange rate policies. More specifically, I posit that governments will be less willing and able to maintain fixed exchange rate arrangements in closed banking systems dominated by government-owned banks than in globalized banking systems with a large presence of foreign banks. The article’s principal claim rests on the notion that ownership structure of the banking system empowers different types of banks, affects their interests, and shapes the responsiveness of government politicians to bank demands. The bank ownership types further influence the stability of the domestic monetary system and financial regulation that are of paramount importance in the determination of exchange rate regimes. An empirical investigation of data on exchange rate regimes for 25 Central and Eastern European countries provides strong support for the theory. The results are robust to alternative estimation techniques, instrumental variable analysis, and the inclusion of several economic and political variables.     

20世纪90年代我国教育发展对经济增长的贡献研究

本文采用丹尼森的方法 ,计算了 2 0世纪 90年代我国教育发展对国内生产总值年均增长率的贡献。与发达国家相比 ,我国教育的经济效益尚存在明显差距。随着教育产业的发展 ,教育对国民经济增长的贡献将日益增强。     

俄罗斯经济快速增长的因素分析及2008年预测

2006年俄罗斯经济保持稳定增长态势。2007年俄罗斯的经济形势总体上可以概括为:经济继续稳定增长,增速进一步提高。由于宏观经济环境整体性得到改善,经济增长的内需导向型发展进一步加强,国内经济的基本因素在经济增长中起主导作用,这是俄多年来改革和调整措施逐步生效的结果。为转变增长方式,政府在经济生活中的作用继续增强。受能源供给增长乏力的限制,2007年俄罗斯出口增幅趋缓的趋势不会改变,进口增速远远高于出口增速成为2007年的显著特征。但国际高油价的利益驱动仍会使俄罗斯不断增加石油生产和出口,同时"黑色金子"也是推进俄内需作用扩张的重要基础。值得关注的是金融对经济增长的拉动作用开始显现。我们乐观地认为,2008年俄罗斯继续保持稳定的增长势头。     

Education and economic growth in the United States: cross-national applications for an intra-national path analysis

Do the leading predictors of economic growth found in the cross-national research have a capacity to predict economic growth at the state level in the United States (US)? Are the effects of education spending on economic growth underestimated because research fails to examine the indirect effects of spending on economic growth? This article presents the findings from a study investigating the relationship between education and economic growth in US states while controlling for the effects of the leading predictors of economic growth from the cross-national research. It also utilizes a path model to examine direct and indirect relationships between education spending and economic growth measured as per capita income growth. The results indicate that spending on higher education and highway expenditures demonstrate a positive association with growth in per capita income, while K12 (kindergarten through 12th grade) spending and K12 pupil–teacher ratios demonstrate a negative association with income growth from 1988 to 2005. Moreover, K12 spending and population growth indirectly affect income growth through their relationship with K12 pupil–teacher ratios, and spending on higher education indirectly affects income growth through college attainment rates. Overall, all but one variable from the cross-national research demonstrates a significant direct or indirect relationship with income growth during at least one time-period investigated. Treating K12 pupil–teacher ratios and college attainment as mediating variables also enhances our understanding of the dynamics that explain growth in per capita income at the sub-national level in the US. However, some unexpected findings emerge when the data are analyzed on the basis of two eight-year sub-periods.     

Decentralised governance and empowerment of county governments in China: betting on the weak or the strong?

Decentralised economic development initiatives empowering local governments have gained currency in both developed and developing contexts. The empowerment of county governments in China is a case in point. This study uses difference-in-differences (DID) and the fixed-effects model with panel data (1997–2008) in counties in Zhejiang Province to empirically investigate the different impacts of the empowerment reform on county economies and fiscal revenue (FR). The results reveal that the reform has not promoted county economies as expected but has significantly increased FR. The reform has had a larger impact on less developed counties than on developed ones, which suggests a positive outcome of this decentralisation policy in China with regard to revenue generation. This study on county empowerment in Zhejiang Province provides some policy implications for other regions in China or developing countries.