俄罗斯的人口现状与普京新方针的制定

普京第 2次就任总统后,在其就职演说及随后向国会所做的致辞中,制定了发展经济、提高居民福利水平、消除贫困和军队的现代化等国家新的发展目标。俄罗斯人口的数量、密度、性别、民族构成及劳动力潜力的现状等人口因素对普京新方针带来了很大的影响。     

Age estimation and the developing third molar tooth: an analysis of an Australian population using computed tomography

The third molar tooth is one of the few anatomical sites available for age estimation of unknown age individuals in the late adolescent years. Computed tomography (CT) images were assessed in an Australian population aged from 15 to 25 years for development trends, particularly concerning age estimation at the child/adult transition point of 18 years. The CT images were also compared to conventional radiographs to assess the developmental scoring agreement between the two and it was found that agreement of Demirjian scores between the two imaging modalities was excellent. The relatively wide age ranges (mean ± 2SD) indicate that the third molar is not a precise tool for age estimation (age ranges of 3-8 years) but is, however, a useful tool for discriminating the adult/child transition age of 18 years. In the current study 100% of females and 96% of males with completed roots were over 18 years of age.     

Confidence interval of the likelihood ratio associated with mixed stain DNA evidence

Likelihood ratios are necessary to properly interpret mixed stain DNA evidence. They can flexibly consider alternate hypotheses and can account for population substructure. The likelihood ratio should be seen as an estimate and not a fixed value, because the calculations are functions of allelic frequency estimates that were estimated from a small portion of the population. Current methods do not account for uncertainty in the likelihood ratio estimates and are therefore an incomplete picture of the strength of the evidence. We propose the use of a confidence interval to report the consequent variation of likelihood ratios. The confidence interval is calculated using the standard forensic likelihood ratio formulae and a variance estimate derived using the Taylor expansion. The formula is explained, and a computer program has been made available. Numeric work shows that the evidential strength of DNA profiles decreases as the variation among populations increases.     

法医STR分型电泳凝胶稳定参数的探讨

目的探讨对法医STR基因分型检测使用的毛细管电泳筛分介质进行评价的参数,为电泳凝胶验证评价提供参考指标。方法采用ABI 3130xl遗传分析仪,以3130 POP-4TM凝胶为筛分介质,以分子量内标GS500LIZ和Typer500为样本,多批次进行毛细管电泳;对原始数据进行分组统计,得到单碱基对相对迁移时间及其相对标准偏差（RSD）。结果分子量内标GS500LIZ和Typer500在POP-4TM凝胶中电泳,单碱基对相对迁移时间的统计结果表现趋势相似,即随着DNA片段增大,单碱基对相对迁移时间的均值减小,标准差及相对标准偏差增大。组间方差分析结果符合方差齐性,P〈0.01,组间多重比较,P〈0.000 28（Bonferron校正）。结论单碱基对相对迁移时间的相对标准偏差（RSD）是毛细管电泳重现性的重要参数,可为凝胶研发和验证提供参考性指标。     

全球视野下的"粮食安全"问题

人口增长与经济快速发展,自然灾害频发与投机资本炒作,粮食安全问题成为世界关注问题。中国作为人口大国和快速发展国家,粮食安全问题受到世界关注,保障粮食安全已经成为中国政府的国家发展战略。世界粮食安全问题,不只是吃饭问题,而是国家生存问题,粮食已经成为战略资源。     

社会融合与城市流动人口犯罪治理

近年来,我国流动人口犯罪数量不断上升,已经成为影响社会稳定的社会问题。当前流动人口犯罪呈现出犯罪主体低龄化与团伙化、犯罪类型多为财产型犯罪、犯罪活动流窜性、犯罪形式暴力性的特点。流动人口犯罪产生的根本原因在于诸多因素阻碍了流动人口融入城市生活。要从根本上治理流动人口犯罪,必须通过调整社会治理措施,使流动人口能够真正融合到城市生活中。     

流动人口来京主要成因分析

流动人口来京的主要成因包括城市化因素、经济因素、区位因素、文化教育因素和交通设施因素五大方面。从城市化因素来看,北京的城市化进程是流动人口涌入北京的主要拉力,同时又影响着在京流动人口的区域分布;从经济因素来看,北京市经济增长与流动人口规模呈正相关关系,北京市产业结构决定了流动人口数量和结构及其分布;从区位因素来看,首都因素对人口流入的拉力效应明显,来京流动人口主要来自京津冀及环渤海区域,而且北京在全国特大城市中的竞争力也是其吸引人口流入的关键因素;从北京市的文化教育和城市基础设施因素来看,优质教育资源、历史文化名城的吸引力和包容性、全国交通枢纽地位和发达的城市基础设施是流动人口来京的重要推动因素。     

Allele frequencies for nine STR loci (D3S1358, vWA, FGA, D8S1179, D21S11, D18S51, D5S818, D13S317, D7S820) in the Italian population

Genotype and allele frequencies for STR loci D3S1358, vWA, FGA, D8S1179, D21S11, D18S51, D5S818, D13S317, D7S820 were investigated in 289 unrelated Italian Caucasian individuals from the North and South regions. After co-amplification by polymerase chain reaction, automatic DNA profiling of these nine STR loci was performed by ABI PRISM((R)) 310 DNA Genetic Analyzer. For each locus, statistical parameters for forensic and paternity purposes were then calculated; the combined power of discrimination and the combined power of exclusion of all nine loci were 0.9999999999917 and 0.99992 for the Northern population and 0.9999999999921 and 0.99991 for the Southern population.     

STR data for the 15 AmpFlSTR identifiler loci in the Western Romanian population

Allele frequencies for the 15 tetranucleotide short tandem repeat loci contained in the AmpFlSTR Identifiler kit were obtained from a population sample of 219 unrelated individuals born in the western part of Romania.     

Population substructure can significantly affect reliability of a DNA-led process of identification of mass fatality victims

Aiming to evaluate the effects of population substructure on the reliability of a DNA correspondence in the process of human identification, we used the model of "in silico" constructed populations with and without substructure. Effects of population substructure were evaluated at the level of locus heterozygosity, Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and mini-haplotype distribution. Inbreeding in a subpopulation of 100 individuals through 10 generations did not significantly alter the level of heterozygosity and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. However, analysis of mini-haplotype distribution revealed a significant homogenization in separated subpopulations. Average observed mini-haplotype frequency (f(o)) increased to threefold from expected values (f(e)), and the number of mini-haplotypes with f(o)/f(e) above 10 increased over sixfold, suggesting that the effects of population substructure on calculated likelihood ratios (LR) might be larger than previously estimated. In most criminal cases, this would not represent a problem, whereas for identifications in large-scale mass fatality events, population substructure might considerably increase the risk of false identification.