On the value of formal assessment of uncertainty in regulatory analysis

The US Office of Management and Budget introduced in 2003 a new requirement for the treatment of uncertainty in Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIAs) of proposed regulations, requiring agencies to carry out a formal quantitative uncertainty assessment regarding a regulation’s benefits and costs if either is expected to reach $1 billion annually. Despite previous use in other contexts, such formal assessments of uncertainty have rarely been employed in RIAs or other regulatory analyses. We describe how formal quantitative assessments of uncertainty – in particular, Monte Carlo analyses – can be conducted, we examine the challenges and limitations of such analyses in the context of RIAs, and we assess how the resulting information can affect the evaluation of regulations. For illustrative purposes, we compare Monte Carlo analysis with methods typically used in RIAs to evaluate uncertainty in the context of economic analyses carried out for the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Nonroad Diesel Rule, which became effective in 2004.     

The economic significance of “insignificant” rules

We know relatively little about the economic effects of “insignificant” rules because they are not typically analyzed. Yet, these rules could be cumulatively important. We provide an economic analysis of one proposed rule to control hazardous air pollutants, which is not considered to be economically significant. This rule is of particular interest because it is one of the first in a long series of rules that Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will consider for limiting hazardous air pollutant emissions. Our analysis suggests that the proposed controls that EPA has considered are not likely to pass a benefit–cost test. We recommend that an agency base its decision to allocate additional resources to benefit–cost analysis on the expected value of the improved information. In addition, agencies should consider applying a rule of thumb that would specify a threshold level of risk reduction that needs to be achieved before some kinds of regulation are considered.     

The changing face of ‘Drivers of Change’

In 2001 the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) launched a new way of conducting political economy analysis, called ‘Drivers of Change’ (DoC). DoC is now well known amongst international development practitioners and professionals. This article provides an introduction to DoC, explaining what it is, where DoC analysis has taken place and which organisations have been involved. It also explores the history and background to DoC, outlines its effect on other bi and multi‐lateral donors and shows how the approach has evolved over the last 5 years. The final section of the article analyses some of the current limitations in the way DoC analysis is used by DFID and predicts how the approach may develop in the future. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国宗教发展趋势分析

新世纪新阶段,我国宗教出现了一些新的趋势:教态平衡发生变化,信仰多元化趋势增强;信教群体面扩大,活动场所需求增加,活动方式灵活多样;宗教思想理论建设加强,教职人员素质提升;宗教世俗化不断发展,宗教神秘主义亦在涌动;宗教在构建和谐社会与促进世界和平发展中的作用越来越大。认清和把握这些趋势,对于引导宗教与社会主义社会相适应具有重要意义。     

关于对群体性事件发展规律及对策分析

当前,群体性事件已经成为影响社会稳定的突出问题,作为社会发展进程中的产物,群体性事件伴随着社会发展形态的进化而不断变化,本文试从社会学和政治学的角度对其发展规律进行了分析,并着重探索目前社会条件下对其有较强操作性的解决方案。     

关于上颌牙弓性别差异的研究

利用自动显示游标卡尺测量200例（男、女各100例，年龄18～24岁）上颌石膏模型上牙弓宽、长及高等18个指标。经统计分析发现除切牙弓长、尖牙间距对应高及第二双尖牙间距对应高外，其余15项测量指标男性均大于女性（P＜0．05）。逐步判别分析仅用7个测量指标，判别率可达到75．50％。     

应用判别分析法判断胸骨性别的研究

本文测量了85例国人胸骨(男52,女33)的全长、柄长、体长、柄最大宽、体最大宽、柄最大厚及体最大厚七个项目,发现所有项目都具有非常显著的性别差异,但两性间重迭率较高,用单项难以准确判定性别。为此,采用 Fisher 判别分析法建立了判定胸骨性别的判别函数,判别率最高达90%。考虑到残缺胸骨的性别鉴定,亦建立了相应的判别函数。与国外研究相比,本文方法判别率较高且更具有实用价值。     

网络时代的青年思想政治工作

随着信息技术的迅猛发展 ,国际互联网被视为继报纸、广播、电视之后的“第四传播媒体” ,日益介入到社会生活的各个方面 ,对我们开展青年思想政治工作带来了全新的挑战。本文从网络文化的特征入手 ,客观分析了网络对青年思想政治工作的影响 ,提出了新形势下做好青年思想政治工作的建议和对策。     

关于公安机关“追缴赃款赃物及退赃“措施的法律分析

赃款赃物的性质只能够由国家授权的特定司法机关或者行政执法机关通过法定程序作出的生效裁决来确定,这是认定赃款赃物在程序上的决定性要件。公安机关在侦查阶段不能够称其扣押或者调取的物品为赃款赃物,追缴赃款赃物更是荒谬,因为其本身没有法律依据。针对“赃款赃物”及其追缴措施,应当通过完善刑事诉讼法、制订有关司法解释来解决和完善。     

"新农村"背景下农民工就业权之法理分析

农民工是伴随着中国改革开放而产生的新兴社会群体,在劳动力市场中处于弱势地位,其就业权益的保障和实现不同程度地受到了旧体制的制约,有的甚至还存在法律的盲区。深入探讨农民工就业权的法理依据,透析我国农民工就业权的保护现状,进而寻求促进和保障实现农民工就业权的对策,对实现建设社会主义新农村的目标,保障整个社会和谐有序发展具有重要意义。