Do party leadership contests forecast British general elections?

When assessing election forecasts, two important criteria emerge: their accuracy (precision) and lead time (distance to event). Curiously, in both 2010 and 2015 the most accurate forecasts came from models having the longest lead time—albeit at most 12 months. Can we increase the lead time further, supposing we tolerate a small decrease in accuracy? Here, we develop a model with a lead time of more than 3 years. Our Party Leadership Model relies on the votes of MPs when selecting their party leader. We assess the forecasting quality of our model with both leave-one-out cross-validation and a before-the-fact forecast of the 2019 general election. Compared to both simple forecasting methods and other scientific forecasts, our model emerges as a leading contender. This result suggests that election forecasting may benefit from developing models with longer lead times, and that party leaders may influence election outcomes more than is usually thought.     

Membership vote for party leadership changes: Electoral effects and the causal mechanisms behind

Political parties in parliamentary democracies have increasingly democratized their leadership selection processes, incorporating the votes of party members. Despite generating numerous headlines, there has been a relative dearth of cross-national scholarly work on the electoral effects of selectorate expansion and the causal mechanisms behind them. This study fills this gap in the literature. Using observational data from eleven parliamentary democracies, we show that parties using membership selection can expect a polling boost when compared to those using more exclusive mechanisms. However, membership selection does not affect electoral performance. Nevertheless, our crossnational analyses and results from a survey experiment from Australia suggest that incorporating members generates excitement, demonstrates an openness to new ideas, and can be a signal of leader work ethic and a commitment to the democratic process, increasing leader legitimacy. We discuss the disconnect between these positive evaluations and the lack of electoral effects, and suggest possible strategies for parties to improve their electoral standing.     

How Can the European Union Contribute to a COP-6 Agreement? An Overview for Policy Makers

During the 6th Conference of Parties (COP-6) in The Hague, the Netherlands, November 2000, crucial progress on a number of outstanding issues related to the Kyoto Protocol will have to be made to open the way for its early ratification, if not to save it from complete failure. Given the present lack of internal US political support for the Kyoto Protocol, the EU may play a pivotal role in making the Kyoto Protocol agreement a reality even without initial ratification of the US, if its able to provide sufficient leadership. In this overview article we discuss the main issues under negotiation, the problems of finding agreement and opportunities for the EU to catalyse a compromise agreement at COP-6, building on key scientific papers as included in this issue and discussions at the European Forum on Integrated Environmental Assessment Climate Policy Workshop in Amsterdam. Key elements are the inclusion of sinks, the use of the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms as a supplement to domestic action and the international compliance system. Domestic implementation of climate policy is a major factor for the EU's credibility.     

The Impact of Political Change on the State of Academia Including Academic Freedom in the Arab World: Libya as a Case Study

ABSTRACT

Furthering Western style academic freedom has been challenging, as Arab countries, especially Libya, have known only autocratic regimes throughout their modern existence. Amidst its current political and social upheaval, Libyan society is drifting towards the unknown. The problem addressed in this study is the impact of political change on the state of academia but, more specifically, academic freedom. Since the intervention in Libya by NATO states, many academics have lost their jobs. Some have become refugees outside of Libya as a direct result of the appropriation of most of the governmental posts in the country by religious and political radicals. The research questions reflect ways in which the new inserted de facto leaders of post-transitional Libya have impacted life on Libyan campuses and academic freedom.     

社区党建与社区治理深度融合路径探究

城乡社区党组织是我们党在城乡社区全部工作和战斗力的基础,社区治理现代化是国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要环节。这次突发的新冠肺炎疫情对社区治理体系和治理能力是一次全方位的挑战和考验。文章认为要积极探索推动社区党建与社区治理深度融合的科学路径,实现二者的有效衔接与良性互动,把党的领导落实到城乡社区治理全过程,以此加强和创新城乡社区治理,推动社区治理体系和治理能力的现代化。     

经济全球化背景下的民族复兴与中国共产党

由产生的特殊性及成长环境所决定,对中国共产党政治功能及历史地位的考察必须具有民族的视野和视角。实现民族复兴与共产党的根本宗旨是一致的,共产党要成为中华民族的先锋队,取决于是否能够在现代历史条件下比其他政治集团更好地解决民族的生存和发展难题。时代的发展对共产党领导中华民族复兴提出了更高要求,如何正确处理经济全球化对民族复兴的挑战,是中国共产党在21世纪巩固和发展领导地位的关键所在。     

论党的领导与社会稳定

在建立社会主义市场经济体制,建设社会主义民主政治的实践中,诸多影响社会稳定的因素随之产生,如中央权威流失、基层政权弱化、社会利益分化、社会规则失范、社会心理失衡等。在不断变化的新形势下,党建工作创新是完善党的领导,维护社会稳定的必然要求,这就要求我党不断加强学习促进党建理论创新和组织工作创新搞好党风廉政建设。     

村民自治条件下农村基层党组织领导方式的调查与思考

山西农村党组织发挥领导核心作用的状况是 :30 %发挥作用多 ;6 0 %属于中等 ;10 %发挥作用比较差。转变农村基层党组织的领导方式势在必行 ,这是执政党实现领导的本质要求 ;是执政党执政规律的内在要求 ;是实行村民自治的迫切要求     

Is Japan Really Back? The “Abe Doctrine” and Global Governance

Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo has emerged as the “comeback kid” of Japanese politics and in his second term of office is now widely regarded as a rare example of strong leadership as he seeks to arrest and reverse his country’s perceived decline. The strategy to achieve these objectives has come to be known as the “Abe Doctrine,” which represents a radical but risky shift in foreign policy. This article outlines the tenets of the evolving Abe Doctrine and then applies them to the Abe administration’s behaviour in the mechanisms of global governance, a highly pertinent but overlooked example. It argues that although a more strategic and coherent approach to global governance has emerged under Abe than had been previously evident, this has been at the expense of the norm of internationalism that has traditionally shaped Japan’s role.     

关于国家精英教育发展战略的若干思考——基于国际金融危机中“政府失灵”现象的反思与批判

世界金融危机的深层次原因是政府失灵,政府失灵的实质是精英泡沫和次级精英危机。因此,教育培养卓越的国家精英是世界各国未来发展的关键,是未来国际竞争的重要战略要点。而培养卓越的国家精英需要卓越的精英教育,卓越的国家精英教育需要领导型学者。但精英教育教学改革要警惕杜威的实用教育哲学与新老愚官教育。培养世界精英是人类21世纪发展的战略制高点。