Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the incremental validity of changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony over 30 consecutive days following parole, for predicting time to recidivism during the following year. Before release, the participants completed self-report assessment of some stable risk factors – impulsiveness and history of problematic substance use – as well as an assessment of symptoms of anxiety experienced during the weeks prior to release. Analysis of the baseline assessments showed that impulsiveness and a history of problematic substance use, but not pre-release symptoms of anxiety, were associated with recidivism during the parole year. Growth modelling using a linear mixed model was used to assess whether inmates on parole showed changes in acute dynamic risk factors during the first month following release. Individual growth model slopes and intercept were then extracted and used as covariates in a series of Cox regression analyses to test whether changes in acute dynamic risk factors could provide incremental predictive validity beyond baseline stable risk factors. Changes in five dynamic risk factors were associated with an increased risk of recidivism, of which daily drug use and daily summary score showed incremental predictive improvement beyond impulsiveness and history of problematic drug use.     

Arbitrary decision making in the absence of evidence: an examination of factors related to treatment selection and recidivism for female sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

As criminal justice professionals are asked to assign risk levels and treat females who sexually offend, identifying risk factors for recidivism prediction and treatment targets is important. Although the majority of risk and treatment studies have focused on males, general female offender research and developing research with female sex offenders both provide some evidence for possible factors related to sexual offending behaviour in women. The purpose of this study was to explore what possible factors were related to treatment selection in a sample of 506 females serving prison sentences for a sexual offense, and, in turn, to examine which factors predicted non-sexual and sexual recidivism. Results demonstrated that exploratory variables were significantly related to treatment selection, as opposed to variables previously supported in research. Furthermore, living with a significant other for more than two years, and prior sexual offending arrests predicted sexual recidivism, while decreased age and treatment participation predicted non-sexual recidivism. These findings indicate that while similarities between male and female sexual offenders exist, females still demonstrate gender-specific risk factors.     

Revisiting the relationship between age,employment, and recidivism

Employment theoretically serves as a source of informal social control that can promote desistance from crime (Sampson & Laub, 1993). Findings from studies assessing the effects of employment, however, have been mixed. In a seminal study, Uggen (2000) reanalyzed data from the National Supported Work (NSW) Demonstration Project and found that employment significantly reduced the rate of recidivism among individuals aged 27 and older but had no impact on younger individuals. We reproduce and replicate Uggen's (2000) findings with data from four distinct employment programs: The National Supported Work Program (1975–1979), the Transitional Aid Research Project (1976–1977), the Employment Services for Ex-Offenders (1981–1984), and the Enhanced Services for the Hard-to-Employ Center for Employment Opportunities (2004–2008). We closely reproduced Uggen's original findings in the NSW but found evidence that the statistically significant interaction between age and employment in the NSW was only present at the year 3 follow-up and the observed effect is highly sensitive to minor threats to internal validity. Furthermore, a significant age–employment interaction was not observed in the three other data sources. These findings should encourage scholars to continue to investigate the age-graded nature of employment and crime, especially through a sociohistorical lens.     

RESIDENTIAL CHANGE AS A TURNING POINT IN THE LIFE COURSE OF CRIME: DESISTANCE OR TEMPORARY CESSATION?*

Many former prisoners return home to the same residential environment, with the same criminal opportunities and criminal peers, where they resided before incarceration. If the path to desistance from crime largely requires knifing off from past situations and establishing a new set of routine activities, then returning to one's old environment and routines may drastically limit an ex‐prisoner's already dismal chances of desisting from crime. This study tests these ideas by examining how forced residential migration caused by Hurricane Katrina affected the likelihood of reincarceration among a sample of ex‐prisoners originally from New Orleans, LA. Property damage from the hurricane induced some ex‐prisoners who otherwise would have moved back to their former neighborhoods to move to new neighborhoods. Findings from an instrumental variables survival analysis reveal that those parolees who moved to a new parish following release were substantially less likely to be reincarcerated during the first 3 years after release than those ex‐offenders who moved back to the parish where they were originally convicted. Moreover, at no point in the 3‐year time period was the hazard of reincarceration greater for those parolees who moved than for those who returned to the same parish.     

Characteristics associated with the prevalence and severity of force used by the police

Using a diversity of samples, sources of data, measures of force, analytical methods, and theoretical frameworks, prior research reported that the prevalence of police use of force ranges from 0.8% to 58.1% of police-suspect encounters. In addition, few characteristics of officers, suspects, police departments, or neighborhoods are associated consistently with the amount of force used by the police. Using self-report data by police from 7,512 adult custody arrests in six jurisdictions, this study found that the associations between encounter-level characteristics and police use of force are dependent on the incorporation of suspects' resistance and on the measure of force used.     

Incidents of discrimination and risk for delinquency: A longitudinal test of strain theory with an African American sample

This article examines the relationship between racial discrimination and delinquency. Using longitudinal data collected on approximately 700 African American children, we begin by establishing an association between exposure to discrimination and delinquent behavior. Next, we use structural equation modeling to test various hypotheses regarding the emotional and cognitive factors that mediate this association. For boys, the association between discrimination and delinquency is mediated by feelings of anger and depression and by the belief that aggression is a necessary interpersonal tactic. The results are somewhat different for girls. Although anger and depression mediate part of the effect of discrimination on delinquency, discrimination continues to display a small but significant direct effect. The implications of these findings for criminological theory are discussed.     

Does Inmate Behavior Affect Post-Release Offending? Investigating the Misconduct-Recidivism Relationship among Youth and Adults

Recent scholarship has highlighted the potential implications of in-prison experiences for prisoner reentry and, in particular, recidivism. Few penological or reentry studies, however, have examined the relationship between one experience that may be especially consequential, inmate misconduct, and recidivism. The goal of this study is to address this gap in the literature by employing a matching design that estimates the effect of inmate misconduct on reoffending, using data on a release cohort of Florida prisoners. The results indicate that inmates who engage in misconduct, violent misconduct in particular, are more likely to recidivate. Consistent with prior scholarship, we find that this relationship holds only for adult inmates. These findings underscore the importance of prison experiences for understanding recidivism, examining youthful and adult inmate populations separately, and devising policies that reduce misconduct.     

Role-Taking and Recidivism: A Test of Differential Social Control Theory

This research measures group differences in recidivism before and after implementation of Megan’s Law. The pre–post study consists of a total of 550 male sex offenders released during the years 1990 and 2000, of which 250 offenders were released during 1990 and 1994 (i.e., the pre‐Megan’s Law group) and 300 offenders were released between 1995 and 2000 (i.e., the post‐Megan’s Law group). Offenders were released from a general population setting and a sex offender specific treatment facility. The main variables of concern include: (1) recidivism levels, (2) days to first re‐arrest, and (3) level of harm (i.e., number of sex offenses, violent offenses, and number of child victims). Statistical findings from chi‐square and survival analysis testing indicate significant group differences on levels of general recidivism; however, no significant differences were identified on measures of sex offense recidivism. Implications of these findings on sex offender specific policies are discussed.     

Examining the Sources of Variation in Risk for Recidivism

This research explores the correlates of desistance and recidivism among a modern cohort of men released from prison. Using eight years of follow‐up data, we estimate a series of multivariate models to differentiate offenders who recidivate in the short term from men who failed after an extended period or who do not return to criminal behavior at all. Consistent with research of this type, the odds of recidivism increased sharply after release and leveled off over time. In addition, younger men with more extensive criminal histories were the least likely to desist and failed early in the release period. The results also reveal heterogeneity in patterns of recidivism over the short and long term, and highlight the importance of post‐release context in understanding prisoner reentry.     

Evaluating the Minnesota Comprehensive Offender Reentry Plan (MCORP): Results from a Randomized Experiment

Using a randomized experimental design, this study evaluated the effectiveness of the Minnesota Comprehensive Offender Reentry Plan (MCORP), an offender reentry pilot project implemented in 2008. In an effort to reduce recidivism, MCORP attempted to increase offender access to community services and programming by producing greater case management collaboration between caseworkers in prison and supervision agents in the community. The results showed that MCORP significantly improved employment rates, decreased homelessness, broadened offenders’ systems of social support, and increased the extent to which offenders participated in community support programming (mentoring, restorative justice services, and faith‐based programming). The findings further revealed that MCORP significantly reduced all three types of reoffending (rearrest, reconviction, and new offense reincarcerations) but did not have a significant impact on supervision revocations for technical violations. The evidence suggests that MCORP was effective in decreasing reoffending largely because it increased the extent to which offenders were employed, involved in community support programming, and able to develop systems of social support.