Ex-offender employment programs and recidivism: A meta-analysis

One consequence of the tremendous growth in the number of persons under supervision of the criminal justice system, whether incarcerated, on parole, or on probation, is the effect of this criminal history on finding and keeping a job. Ex-offenders, especially those recently released from prison, face substantial barriers to many types of legal employment; nonetheless, stable employment is one of the best predictors of post-release success. Thus, policy-makers concerned about high recidivism rates face an obvious need to improve the employment prospects of ex-offenders. Over the last 25 years, many programs that were designed to increase employment (and, by so doing, reduce recidivism) among ex-offenders have been implemented and evaluated. [Wilson, D. B., Gallagher, C. A., Coggeshall, M. B. & MacKenzie, D. L. (1999). Corrections Management Quarterly 3(4), 8–18; Wilson, D. B., Gallagher, C. A. & MacKenzie, D. L. (2000). Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 37(4), 347–368] conducted a quantitative synthesis and meta-analysis of 33 evaluations of educational, vocational, and work programs for persons in correctional facilities. To date, however, the evaluation literature on employment programs for those with a criminal record who are not in custody has not been systematically reviewed. This paper presents the results of a quantitative meta-analysis of eight random assignment studies of such programs, using the Campbell Collaboration methodology. The results indicate that this group of community employment programs for ex-offenders did not reduce recidivism; however, the experimental design research on this question is small and does not include some of the promising community employment programs that have emerged in the last decade.     

Estimating the numbers of prison terms in criminal careers from one-step probabilities of recidivism

A method of using estimates of one-step probabilities of recidivism, i.e., conditional probabilities of individuals returning to prison for the jth time given release for the (j-1)st time, to estimate the numbers of prison terms expected to be accumulated by the individuals, is presented. The method is illustrated by calculating the expected numbers of prison terms separately for racial and gender groups in a large data base of Western Australian prisoners. The recidivism probabilities for these data were estimated by fitting Weibull mixture models to the (possibly censored) times to recidivate. The probabilities increase strongly asj increases from 1 to 6, then level off. Large differences between them are due to racial and gender group and these are reflected in the differing expected prison career durations for these groups. The effect of interventions which might lower recidivism is discussed in the light of the method as applied to these estimates.     

The Sex Crime: Deterioration more Apparent than Real?

Public concern about an escalation of sex crime is unsupported by a critical analysis of official crime statistics in England and Wales. Assumptions about the inveterate recidivism of sex offenders are unconfirmed by follow-up studies. A great variety of behaviours is covered by sex crime, from the grave to the trivial. To the traditional offences of predatory aggressors, violent rapists and a small number of dangerous offenders driven by pathological emotions, are now added date rapes and harassments previously little reported. All sex incidents involving children are widely believed to cause lasting damage, despite evidence to the contrary. Female offenders and boy victims are receiving more attention. Adolescent involvement is insufficiently distinguished from paedophile offences and male homosexuals are suspected of paedophile tendencies. The development of constructive therapeutic approaches is impeded by doubts about efficacy and a punitive ethos.     

The effects of base rate and cutoff point choice on commonly used measures of association and accuracy in recidivism research

Several measures of association and accuracy commonly used in the recidivism literature are examined for their sensitivity to variations in the proportion observed to recidivate (the base rate) and in the proportion selected for classification as recidivists (selection ratio). Logistic regression models are employed on a sample of 11,749 convicted offenders to generate predicted probabilities of four recidivism criteria varying in base rates from 0.06 to 0.48. Cutoff point selections from 0.1 to 0.9 show the effects of cutoff point changes on the following commonly used measures of association and accuracy: RIOC (relative improvement over chance), MCR (mean cost rating), Φ, γ, PRE (proportion reduction in error), and percentage correct. While all these statistics vary across base rate and cutoff points, some vary more than others: RIOC varies across cutoff points more than MCR, MCR more than Φ, and Φ more than γ. Researchers comparing such statistics across studies need be wary of the dangers of ignoring such variation.     

Utilizing Criminal History Information to Explore the Effect of Community Notification on Sex Offender Recidivism

While sex offender registration laws with notification provisions are now over a decade old, little is known about how these policies influence the prevention of sex offending. Very few studies have considered the impact of notification on sex offender recidivism or the effect of these laws on sex crimes, generally. This study considers the effectiveness of offender tracking and declaration at the state level through evaluation of current sex offender laws in Arkansas. Using a quasi‐experimental regression‐discontinuity design, this research evaluated the recidivism of the first three waves of sex offenders registered in the state (1997–1999) vs. a comparison group of sex offenders from a decade earlier (1987–1989). Findings indicate there is no statistically significant difference between the two groups in terms of recidivism. Policy implications are discussed.     

The Economics of Prisons

This survey scans the English language research on prisons published since the appearance of Becker's (1968) seminal piece. After first describing the economic nature of prison and parole, issues concerning comparative institutional analysis and organizational design are discussed, including the role of private prisons. Empirical evidence on production functions for prisons, recidivism and offender rehabilitation programs is reviewed. A brief overview of policy issues and suggestions for future research concludes the survey.     

完善我国社区矫正风险评估体系的思考——基于再犯危险的分析

社区矫正风险评估机制应当贯穿于判决前、入矫后、解矫前三个阶段,形成一个完整的体系,应严格按照＂首要标准＂的要求,每个阶段都对社区服刑人员的再犯危险进行分析和评估。判决前矫正期内的再犯危险评估是基础,评估的重点在于社区风险的防范;入矫后的再犯危险评估是根本,以消除社区服刑人员的犯罪危险性人格,不断提升矫正效果为目的;解矫前的再犯危险评估是关键,以实现社区服刑人员的再社会化为目标。     

Sustained Outcomes? an Exploratory Study of Juvenile Drug Courts and Long-Term Recidivism

This exploratory study examined juvenile drug courts’ effect on adulthood recidivism. Utilizing a twelve-year average follow up time, adult recidivism rates were compared between previous juvenile drug court participants and a comparison group of juveniles who participated in traditional probation. Linear regression models indicated limited recidivism effects of drug court on arrests or convictions into adulthood. The findings suggest that gender and race may play a role in how justice-involved juveniles interact and experience juvenile drug court, highlighting the need for gender-responsive and culturally responsive policies, practices, and programs within juvenile drug courts. Recommendations are made regarding future research areas and ways to potentially improve long-term juvenile drug court outcomes.