The effects of base rate and cutoff point choice on commonly used measures of association and accuracy in recidivism research

Several measures of association and accuracy commonly used in the recidivism literature are examined for their sensitivity to variations in the proportion observed to recidivate (the base rate) and in the proportion selected for classification as recidivists (selection ratio). Logistic regression models are employed on a sample of 11,749 convicted offenders to generate predicted probabilities of four recidivism criteria varying in base rates from 0.06 to 0.48. Cutoff point selections from 0.1 to 0.9 show the effects of cutoff point changes on the following commonly used measures of association and accuracy: RIOC (relative improvement over chance), MCR (mean cost rating), Φ, γ, PRE (proportion reduction in error), and percentage correct. While all these statistics vary across base rate and cutoff points, some vary more than others: RIOC varies across cutoff points more than MCR, MCR more than Φ, and Φ more than γ. Researchers comparing such statistics across studies need be wary of the dangers of ignoring such variation.     

The Difference a Job Makes: Licit and Illicit Work Experiences and Aspirations at a Transitional Housing Facility for Women Leaving the Sex Industry

This investigation establishes a baseline understanding of how women exiting the sex industry understand the economic options available to them by reviewing their work experiences in the legal economy, histories of sex industry involvement, and their aspirations for legal work upon entering a yearlong residential program offered at a transitional housing facility. Specifically, it explores how prior work experience, type of sex industry involvement, and demographic characteristics such as race and age intersect with women’s legal work aspirations upon leaving the sex industry. Analysis indicates that women’s occupational choices are limited by prior experiences within the formal and informal economies and that women of color and poor women of all ethno-racial backgrounds are particularly likely to face disadvantages in both economic sectors. Findings accordingly indicate that rehabilitative settings must consider whether the career pathways they create lead to economic self-sufficiency and reduce the likelihood that women will return to life situations they express a desire to leave.     

The Impact of Gender and Early Delinquency on Reoffending: A Life History Perspective

In New Jersey, conversations within a statewide antiviolence initiative stimulated the idea to begin interviewing local repeat offenders to uncover the root of their criminal trajectories. Capturing the life histories of recidivists provides a rich understanding of how these individuals entered and remained in a criminal lifestyle. Employing qualitative methods, 20 men and women were interviewed in a local county jail and asked to describe numerous aspects of their lives that may have contributed to their criminal outcome. Similarities and differences are described between and among the men and women.     

对确立单位累犯的若干问题的思考

我国目前并无单位累犯的立法,需要确立单位累犯制度,为此,必须着重对单位累犯的刑罚条件、时间条件和单位变更后的累犯认定问题进行探讨。     

论单位累犯

新刑法虽然规定了单位犯罪及其处罚的一般原则 ,但并没有设置单位累犯制度 ,文章认为有必要创设单位累犯制度 ,并就单位累犯的三个构成条件及单位累犯制度的一些特殊之处进行了探讨。     

Recidivism among drug offenders: A survival analysis of the effects of offender characteristics,type of offense,and two types of intervention

The determinants of recidivism are increasingly becoming the focus of public concern. This study explores the relative effect of type of intervention, offender characteristics, and type of incident offense on time to a petition to revoke probation and time to a probation revocation. Our analysis of intervention effects includes both parametric and nonparametric estimation procedures. Estimating five distributional forms of survival and a proportional hazard model for each measure of recidivism, the analysis indicates no difference in the effect of a program of drug monitoring and treatment, compared to drug monitoring only, for either of the two measures of recidivism. In addition, findings indicate that younger offenders and African American offenders have a shorter time to a petition to revoke probation. We also found a reduced time to failure for a probation revocation for African American offenders and offenders with a prior arrest record. Our findings offer empirical support for a reconsideration of the type of intervention effective in deterring offenders while on probation.     

The Economics of Prisons

This survey scans the English language research on prisons published since the appearance of Becker's (1968) seminal piece. After first describing the economic nature of prison and parole, issues concerning comparative institutional analysis and organizational design are discussed, including the role of private prisons. Empirical evidence on production functions for prisons, recidivism and offender rehabilitation programs is reviewed. A brief overview of policy issues and suggestions for future research concludes the survey.     

Mass Reentry,Neighborhood Context and Recidivism: Examining How the Distribution of Parolees Within and Across Neighborhoods Impacts Recidivism

Recent scholarship focuses on the role neighborhood context plays in reoffending. These studies lack an examination of how the size of the parolee population at the neighborhood-level impacts individual recidivism. We examine how the size and clustering of parolee populations within and across neighborhoods impacts individual-level recidivism. Using data from parolees returning to three Ohio cities from 2000 to 2009, we examine how concentrations of parolees in neighborhoods and in the surrounding neighborhoods impact the likelihood of reoffending. We also examine whether parolee clustering conditions the relationship between neighborhood-level characteristics and recidivism. Results show concentrated reentry increases recidivism, while parolees in stable neighborhoods are less likely to recidivate. Also, the positive effect of parolee concentration is tempered when parolees return to stable neighborhoods. These findings suggest that augmenting resources available in neighborhoods saturated by parolees, as well as bolstering residential stability in these same neighborhoods might reduce reoffending.