Predicting dropout from a residential programme for adolescent sexual abusers using pre-treatment variables and implications for recidivism

Abstract

This study addresses the prediction that dropout from a UK specialized residential treatment program for adolescent sexual abusers can be determined from pre-treatment variables. Participants were 49 adolescents aged 12–16?years, who had sexually abused children, peers/adults or both. Of the variables examined, 25 showed a significant association with treatment dropout. A scale, consisting of 20 items, was designed to predict treatment dropout. As a measure it showed internal consistency (alpha?=?0.84) and predictive validity. Treatment dropout was linked to a greater risk of recidivism: offences of a general; violent; and combined violent or sexual nature. Missing data confounded the overall small sample size; therefore, a brief checklist of factors associated with dropout was produced as a guide for treatment managers and clinicians.     

Factors related to recidivism for youthful offenders

Little is known about youth who were previously placed in a detention facility and what factors predict a subsequent recidivism to placement. This study of a two-county juvenile offender population (one urban and one rural) investigates what demographic, educational, mental health, substance dependence, and court-related variables predict recidivism to detention placement. Findings from logistic regression analysis indicate that seven variables significantly predict juvenile offenders’ recidivism placement, some expected and some unexpected. Predictors that made recidivism more likely include youth with a previous conduct disorder diagnosis, a self-reported previous suicide attempt, age, and number of court offenses. Conversely, predictors that made recidivism less likely include race (Caucasian), a previous attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder diagnosis, and a misdemeanor conviction. These findings indicate that the use of a community-based suicide and mental health screening and referral approach may help to identify and assist these high-risk youth in receiving needed services prior to juvenile court involvement or during delinquency adjudication.     

Living Conditions,Social Exclusion and Recidivism Among Prison Inmates

Swedish drug policy has according to official declarations been successful. The picture has recently been challenged through rising drug use and rising drug related mortality. This development has taken place in spite of the restrictive Swedish policy with further penalization of drug consumption, increasing number of police officers working with drug crime and rising number of persons sentenced to prison for drug offences. The question to be explored here is then what strategies the Swedish Government has chosen in the light of the development and how these strategies should be explained. The analysis is based on central Government documents as well as statements from Government ministers, public authorities and voluntary organizations. The picture that emerges is a denial of the failure of the old Swedish model but at the same time an alarmist stand with demands for increases of resources for information, treatment and control. The strategies chosen can be derived from two central themes in Swedish drug debate: ‘a drug‐free society’ and ‘total rehabilitation’. The two in turn seem to be aspects of an underlying vision—the vision of the good and integrative welfare society.     

The Effects of Changes in Dynamic Risk on Reoffending among Serious Juvenile Offenders Returning from Residential Placement

This study examines whether changes in dynamic risk during juvenile justice long-term residential placement affect recidivism. Advancing the work of prior dynamic risk change analyses, we examine a large sample of 11,891 male and 1930 female juvenile offenders while taking methodological steps to ensure successful and non-successful youth (in terms of recidivism) are (statistically) identical at admission. Specifically, we employ propensity score matching on residential placement youth who recidivate post-release and non-recidivists on static risk factors and initial dynamic risk scores assessed at admission to residential placement. Post-matching, changes in dynamic risk factors from initial assessment at admission to exit assessment at release are examined with a focus on whether those changes distinguish recidivists from non-recidivists. Separate analyses are conducted for male and female juveniles. Results indicate that changes in dynamic risk do affect recidivism likelihood, but that different factors matter for males and females. These sex-specific models allow for distinct policy recommendations.     

Does Treatment Quality Matter?

Research Summary

The Florida Department of Juvenile Justice has implemented a process to evaluate the treatment quality of interventions provided statewide in all long‐term residential programs. In the current study, we examine the predictive validity of this treatment quality component in the prediction of recidivism of youth (N = 2,397) who completed juvenile justice residential programs from July 1, 2013 to June 30, 2014. We use hierarchical linear modeling to assess the effects of treatment quality (as youth are nested within programs), controlling for demographic and criminal history factors. The results indicate that higher average treatment quality scores of interventions received within a residential program decreased the likelihood of subsequent arrest, conviction, and reincarceration, whereas the highest treatment quality score of any specific intervention provided within the program decreased the odds of reincarceration only.

Policy Implications

In this study, we confirm the importance of fidelity and implementation quality in the provision of crime prevention treatment interventions to serious, deep‐end juvenile offenders. Additionally, our results shed light on the ability of a juvenile justice agency to measure treatment quality in a substantively meaningful way with the use of limited additional resources. The services provided to keep communities safe, prevent future offending, and rehabilitate juvenile offenders must be held accountable for producing such outcomes, and one method of measuring such compliance is to evaluate the quality of the interventions with respect to staff training, fidelity adherence, evaluation, and corrective action processes.     

Social support and one-year outcomes for women participating in prison-based substance abuse treatment programming

In recent decades, the number of women under criminal justice supervision has increased considerably, many of whom are serving time for drug offenses. Furthermore, women in prison are more likely than their non-institutionalized counterparts to suffer from a substance abuse disorder. While there is a growing body of research concerning women offenders’ drug abuse and treatment needs, few studies have examined the substance abuse treatment outcomes of women in the criminal justice system. Using data from Outcome Evaluation of the Forever Free Substance Abuse Treatment Program, this study compared women’s self-reported drug use twelve months after participation in high-intensity (n = 101) and low-intensity (n = 81) prison-based substance abuse treatment programming (N = 182). Women who perceived high levels of emotional social support were less likely to report substance use at 12-month follow-up. Furthermore, perceptions of emotional social support and treatment intensity interacted in their association with relapse, such that the protective effect of social support was strongest for women who participated in high-intensity programming. The results of the analyses highlight the importance of perceived social support for women with substance abuse disorders who are transitioning from prison-based substance abuse treatment programming to the community.     

Effectiveness of a risk–need–responsivity‐based treatment program for violent and sexual offenders: Results of a retrospective,quasi‐experimental study

Purpose

Relapse prevention is an important goal in correctional settings. Although there is strong evidence for the effectiveness of certain treatment programs for juvenile offenders, those for adults lack such evidence. This study evaluated the effectiveness of a risk–need–responsivity (RNR)‐based intervention.

Methods

A quasi‐experimental, observational study design and cox regression analysis were used to compare treated violent and sexual offenders (n = 171) with untreated offenders (n = 241).

Results

Both groups were observed for an average of 7.9 years. Recidivism rates of treated offenders (11.7%, n = 20) were similar to those of control offenders (15.8%, n = 38; p = .25). When controlling for confounding variables, the hazard of recidivism in the treatment group was 5.2% lower than that in the control group. Subdividing the treatment group resulted in lower hazard ratios for offenders still in therapy when released and offenders cancelling therapy. However, none of the group differences was statistically significant.

Conclusion

Our results show that control and RNR‐based treatment groups had comparable recidivism rates with a trend towards a positive treatment effect, especially for people in outpatient treatment. However, criminal history, age at the start of follow‐up, and actuarial risk of recidivism were significantly associated with recidivism. Future research needs to apply elaborate methodological approaches to detect robust treatment effects and consider different criteria of treatment effectiveness. Furthermore, the influence of prison climate, motivational factors, intervention quality, and factors supporting the success of outpatient treatment should be considered in future studies of larger offender samples.