桂林模式：品牌依托 整合多赢——“大桂林旅游圈”旅游业发展研究报告

"大桂林旅游圈"已经初具雏形,其总体运行态势良好,县域旅游与市区旅游原有格局被打破,县域旅游之间整合程度提升.桂林作为旅游中心城市对周边县域的辐射、带动作用表现在道路交通建设、旅游线路搭配、旅游信息提供上.     

The Relationships Between Childhood Sexual Abuse,Social Anxiety,and Symptoms of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Women

The relationships between childhood sexual abuse, social anxiety, and symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder were examined in a sample of 313 undergraduate women. Thirty-one percent of the women reported some form of sexual abuse in childhood. Women with a history of sexual abuse reported more symptoms of anxiety, distress in social situations, and posttraumatic stress disorder than other women. Women who experienced attempted or actual intercourse reported more avoidance than women with no history of abuse and women with exposure only, and more PTSD symptoms than all other groups of women. Women who experienced fondling reported more PTSD symptoms than women with no history of abuse. Pressure, age of onset of abuse, abuse by a family friend, and abuse by other perpetrators were all significant abuse characteristics in predicting adult social anxiety. Implications of these results for research and interventions are discussed.     

中国化马克思主义民族理论在西藏的实践--纪念西藏自治区成立四十周年

总结历史,立足现实,中央人民政府和西藏地方政府签订和平解放西藏的"十七条协议",和平解放西藏.立足民族平等,消除民族隔阂,加强藏、汉民族团结,强调民族工作要"慢",不能急躁,采取灵活、"慎重、稳进"的方针开展工作.实行民族区域自治是中国共产党和毛泽东解决民族问题的基本主张.坚定不移的实行民族区域自治,藏族人民在政治上实现当家作主.帮助西藏发展经济和社会各项事业.尊重藏民族的生活习惯,保障宗教信仰自由.对达赖喇嘛的基本立场和态度是,停止独立活动,欢迎他回来.     

传承艺术经典彰显地域文化--第七届中国艺术节戏曲作品巡礼

文章从经典剧作改编、地域文化展示和时代新篇原创三方面,对各省市入选第七届中国艺术节的24台戏曲作品进行了总体巡礼和循类分析,并且对其得失成败及其与文华大奖的对应关系作了具体讨论和一般归纳.对于在"七艺节"上荣获文华大奖的剧目,也存在不足之处与遗憾之点,作为国家艺术节上的剧目,应在思想内涵、艺术创造和时代精神等方面,有着更深、更美和更新的追求.     

An Alternative Approach to Estimating Who is Most Likely to Respond to Changes in Registration Laws

Scholars often seek to understand which individuals are most responsive to the change in some treatment. Such work inevitably faces issues of identification. When the dependent variable is binary, the assumption that the largest effect occurs where p = 0.5 is also encountered. I apply Manski’s [(1995). Identification problems in the social sciences. Cambridge: Harvard University Press] non-parametric Bounds approach, which relaxes the functional form and distributional assumptions found in traditional models, in an attempt to resolve the long standing debate on which types of individuals are most affected by changes in registration laws. Under the standard assumption that treats the selection of registration laws as exogenous, the results revise the current understanding. By exploring the power of various behavioral assumptions, new insights into the study of policy changes emerge, calling into question some of the assumptions that are standard in the literature.

Media Priming in a Multi-Party Context: A Controlled Naturalistic Study in Political Communication

This study investigates media priming effects in the context of a Summit meeting of European Union (EU) leaders. It differs in four ways from most previous non-experimental priming studies: (1) it provides survey data accompanied by a content analysis of the news, (2) it compares priming effects on evaluations of a number of political leaders, who differed in their visibility in the news, (3) it involves an issue with low salience, and (4) it studies priming effects in the context of a European Parliamentary democracy. The study involves a two-wave panel study (before and after the Summit) on a representative sample of 817 Dutch adults, and a content analysis of the newspaper and television news in the 8 weeks leading up to the Summit meeting. The study shows that media priming effects occur only for the politicians who appeared visible in the news in connection with the issue. The media priming effects were not significantly moderated by political attentiveness or by political knowledge. We also explore the aggregate level consequences of priming for the popularity of leaders, and demonstrate that, as a result of media priming, two politicians became more popular, despite having received a bad press.

公共教育财政的社会适应性与地区调控要求

公共教育应当适应地区发展定位,融入地区经济社会发展规划。而义务教育作为公共产品要打破地区发展水平的限制实现均等化;高等教育作为准公共产品要契合地区发展方向实现特色化发展。由此,公共教育与地区发展的适应性则需要依靠财政调控实现,财政预算和转移支付是公共教育经费供给主要渠道。另外,还应完善公共教育财政资金使用管理和监督机制,保障公共教育财政调控目标的实现。     

羁押必要性之检察审查制度的程序构建

检察审查羁押必要性的适用对象是修正后的刑事诉讼法第79条第一款的被羁押者。审查程序的启动可以是检察机关依据职权审查,也可以是依据被羁押者或其近亲属、法定代理人、其委托的辩护律师申请而进行审查。间隔性审查的期限以60日为宜。审查的方式是对席制和书面调查制,根据不同的方式采取不同的程序。检察审查后作出的无羁押必要的决定应该具有程序效力,但修正后的刑事诉讼法并没有规定该决定的程序执行效力。这在以后的司法实践中可能出现羁押必要性审查制度虚置的现象。     

Voter sincerity and the time-of-voting-decision

This article explores the relationship between vote sincerity and the time at which vote decisions are finalized. It posits that a specific set of competitive circumstances are necessary for insincere voting to occur, and that voters' understanding of these circumstances can be influenced by exposure to information during a campaign. The article introduces a new method of operationalizing a commonly overlooked type of insincere voting: the protest voter. As defined here, protest voters express their political dissatisfaction by supporting an uncompetitive non-traditional party that is not their first preference. Canadian Election Study data reveal that protest voters make up a small, but noteworthy segment of the electorate and that insincere voters tend to make their vote decisions relatively late.     

Campaigns and the prediction of election outcomes: Can historical and campaign-period prediction models be combined?

There are two approaches to predicting election outcomes: (1) a historical approach, which uses past election results alongside macroeconomic and political variables to forecast election results up to a year in advance, and (2) a campaign-oriented approach, which uses current campaign trends to forecast vote shares at the end of the campaign. They are in some way at odds—one approach says the campaign doesn't matter, the other focuses entirely on the campaign. This article considers whether the two approaches might be usefully combined; it considers whether the prediction errors in historical models may be related to trends during the campaign. That possibility is tested here using 17 elections in the US, UK and Canada, combining historical predictions and automated content analyses of campaign-period media content. Results suggest that campaigns do not account for errors in the historical predictions; but there may be other ways in which campaigns matter in conjunction with historical models.