地区安全治理的未来:走向亚洲协调

作者首次提出了"亚洲协调"的概念,讨论了亚洲协调对未来亚洲及太平洋地区安全治理的必要性和长远性。尽管最早的主要国家之间协调(concert of powers)的理论与实践是19世纪的、欧洲的,但是,关于主要国家之间协调(不仅是大国协调)的一般理论却同样可以运用在解决21世纪的亚洲(以及太平洋)的严峻安全挑战和困境上。这些挑战和困境在未来可能会进一步演化为严重的大国之间的对抗甚至冲突。更重要的是,亚洲协调将注定会阻止战争、实现长期和平及维持本地区的经济活力。也就是说,如果亚洲协调明智地和有效地建立并运作起来,到2079年,亚洲以及太平洋将拥有一百年的和平,如同欧洲在1815-1914年拥有的百年和平。从1979年到现在,亚洲地区已经享受了接近四十年的和平。在过去二十多年建立起来的地区或者跨地区的论坛、会议、组织和制度等,反映了治理亚洲地区的权力转移的企图和努力;尽管这些安排相互重叠、尚未彼此兼容,甚至相互竞争,但我们完全可以把它们当做未来亚洲协调的基础。虽然目前的地区安全治理仍然由美国及其同盟体系占据主导地位,但美国也不得不重视复杂的安全地区主义。有不少人建议美国应该以亚洲协调作为未来解决与中国关系的方案。中国已经为建立在经济发展基础上的亚洲和平做出重大贡献。中国已与美国建立"新型大国关系"回应美国的"转向亚洲"。中国在亚洲协调中的地位是中心的和关键的。     

国际制度设计视角下的澜湄合作

为什么在湄公河流域已经存在数十个国际合作机制的情况下,还要建立澜湄合作(LMC)这一新型次区域合作机制?既有研究大多强调湄公河流域大国国际制度主导权竞争的宏观背景因素,而较少关注澜湄合作机制的新制度特征及其形成原因,即澜湄新型次区域合作机制究竟"新在何处"。与大湄公河次区域经济合作机制(GMS)等既有国际机制相比,澜湄合作机制具有两大新的制度特征:一是议题范围更加广泛,除了传统的区域经济合作议题外,还增加了区域安全合作以及水资源合作等新议题;二是集中程度更高,与之前合作机制主要由"职能部门引领"以及"借用"亚洲开发银行作为国际秘书处的做法不同,澜湄合作机制采取了"领导人引领、各部门参与"的机制运行模式,并逐步建立独立的国际秘书处。通过运用国际制度理性设计的理论模型,本文考察了在湄公河流域国际合作中上游国家与下游国家之间所面临的日益严峻的分配问题和执行问题,并以此解释了澜湄合作新制度特征的形成原因。     

西北地区住房保障水平测度及其比较研究。

该文使用住房保障水平测算模型，通过估算西北各省经济适用房支出和廉租房支出，对西北五省住房保障水平进行测度。然后把西北各省住房保障水平与其年均GDP结合起来，用以考察各省的住房保障水平与经济发展水平的适应性，分析找出经济实力相对较好、住房保障水平相对较高的省份，这对推动西北各省科学制定住房保障政策及合理安排住房保障财政支出结构有重要作用和意义。     

被保险人故意犯罪致保险事故发生的法律后果--从公共政策的角度分析

保险领域中,公共政策要求“一个人不能从自己的犯罪中获利”,但须区分“一个人不能从他人的犯罪中获利”之情形。被保险人故意犯罪致保险事故发生,应视保险目的与功能而异其法律后果:若被保险人因预谋犯罪而直接谋求保险金,保险人当然免责;若被保险人在投保二年后故意犯罪致保险事故发生,则保险人虽不负给付保险金之责,但应退还保险单的现金价值;若故意犯罪并非保险事故发生的直接原因,保险人不能当然免责。     

省直管县改革背景下市县横向分治与合作机制之构建

省直管县改革是为适应经济社会快速发展而进行的行政层级调整,对于破除市管县体制藩篱、激活和增强县域经济发展活力、提高行政效率具有重大意义.实践中,市县科层结构"交错纠缠"、省级政府管理幅度偏大、市县资源依赖关系受到冲击等问题一定程度上影响了省直管县改革的推进,导致改革的政策红利未能充分释放.应从增加省直管县试点数量、推动...     

以科学发展观统领区域经济社会发展——论《东北地区振兴规划》的指导思想与政策取向

国务院振兴东北地区等老工业基地办公室公布的《东北地区振兴规划》,明确提出了我国实现东北地区振兴的时间步骤安排、社会经济发展主要目标、基本途径和保障措施,为东北地区未来10~15年的经济社会建设指明了基本方向,特别是以推动产业结构优化升级为核心加快区域经济发展、以推进区域合作进程为核心促进区域协调发展、以加快改革开放和自主创新为核心增强区域发展活力、以发展社会事业和生态建设为重点提高区域发展支撑保障能力的政策思路,充分体现了科学发展观的要求。     

俄罗斯卢布汇率安排的经济效应分析

俄罗斯转型时期的宏观经济波动与汇率制度安排之间存在着密切的关系.本文在评述新兴市场经济国家汇率制度选择困境和概述俄罗斯汇率制度演变的基础上,从汇率与通货膨胀、汇率与对外贸易、汇率与资本流入、汇率与外债规模结构变动等方面分析了汇率制度安排及汇率变动的宏观经济效应,并简要总结了俄罗斯的实践对中国的启示.     

Regional transport challenges within the Southern African Development Community and their implications for economic integration and development

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) seeks to deepen economic integration among its members through the SADC free trade area that came into effect in January 2008. The thrust for a progressive reduction of tariff and no-tariff barriers, which the market integration model emphasises, has serious implications for the impact of transport and communication systems on economic integration and development within SADC.

Transport and communications systems have an important bearing on economic integration and development because they can be significant non-tariff barriers. The SADC Protocol on Transport, Communications and Meteorology is the instrument through which transport and communications constraints are to be addressed. Through this protocol, some institutions have been established and others proposed to ensure that projects designed to deepen economic integration and development are implemented effectively.

The neo-functional integration approach is a relevant theoretical framework for analysing transport and communications issues and for implementing joint sectoral projects in areas that impact on overcoming development-related deficiencies in production and infrastructure. Transport and communications fall in this category of projects and the SADC region has benefited from functional co-operation in this sector.

As integration proceeds, polarisation of industries could occur, raising concerns about the distributional effects of economic integration as this affects development. However, polarisation is not inevitable: it depends on transport costs. This might seriously address transport and communications constraints because, if these are greatly reduced and eventually removed, weaker SADC countries need not lose industries to the core with the SADC Free Trade Area in place.     

How mass media attract political elites’ attention

Political agenda‐setting research has shown that policy makers are responsive vis‐à‐vis media priorities. However, the mechanisms behind this effect have remained understudied so far. In particular, agenda‐setting scholars have difficulties determining to what extent politicians react to media coverage purely because of the information it contains (information effect), and to what extent the effect is driven not by what the media say but by the fact that certain information is in the media (media channel effect), which is valued for its own sake – for instance, because media coverage is considered to be a reflection of public opinion. By means of a survey‐embedded experiment with Belgian, Canadian and Israeli political elites (N = 410), this study tests whether the mere fact that an issue is covered by the news media causes politicians to pay attention to this issue. It shows that a piece of information gets more attention from politicians when it comes via the media rather than an identical piece of information coming via a personal e‐mail. This effect occurs largely across the board: it is not dependent on individual politician characteristics.     

Symposium on “The nationalization of electoral politics: Frontiers of research”

This editorial introduces the theme of the symposium which addresses the most recent advances in the field of the nationalization of electoral politics. After a decade of an increasing number of contribution in this field, the symposium takes stock of the diversity of applications of nationalization studies, the progress in data collection, and its innovative methods in designs including it as both a dependent and independent variable and analyzing it both for legislative and presidential elections. The editorial reviews the growth and diversification of the literature over time and illustrates in what directions it has evolved mapping out an increasingly rich and complex theory. It links the articles of the symposium to this evolution of the literature and discusses their innovative character.