Beyond Identities: Political Determinants of Support for Decentralization in Contemporary Spain

Support for decentralization has generally been considered an outcome derived from the existence of regional or subnational identities. A recent complementary explanation has highlighted the role of politics to create regionally orientated support. We combine these two explanations by studying what determines the support for decentralization in Spain, an almost unique case where these two approaches can be tested. Using a hierarchical model, we show that in those regions without a different subnational identity, some citizens develop regionally orientated support because of their wish to bring the administration closer to the citizens and because their preferred party is pushing for further decentralization. In addition, we highlight the importance of considering decentralization as an outcome derived from party dynamics, which are able to shape political attitudes towards decentralization.     

司法改革的使命——中共十八届三中全会司法改革内容解读

中共十八届三中全会对我国司法改革作出了全面的战略部署。其核心是“两个去除”：去除司法地方保护和去除司法行政化。实现前者的路径包括人财物的省级统管和司法区划的建立,实现后者的路径主要包括改革司法人事管理制度、改革审判委员会制度、规范上下级法院关系和司法公开。落实这“两个去除”,是保障独立审判,维护司法权威,实现我国社会的司法之治的必由之路。     

朝贡贸易制度论

朝贡贸易是存在于古代中国——东亚和东南亚的一种地区合作制度,贸易成为相互联系的手段,目的是维系地区关系的和谐与秩序。它是中国传统文化的—个重要组成部分和外化,是中国古代外交思想的体现。它在有效运作的同时,也存在着因为制度缺陷而引发的矛盾和冲突。本文从历史学与国际关系学相结合的角度,客观评价了朝贡贸易制度的积极作用和不足之处。     

市管县实践的反思:"复合行政"的视角

从制度演变的轨迹看,我国曾经三次大规模地推行市管县体制.由于制度背景的差异,市管县体制所取得的绩效也发生了很大的变化,从推动地方经济发展到各种弊端日益突出.分析市管县体制的各种影响因素,可以看出行政区划变革在促进经济发展中的局限性.要解决区域经济一体化的问题,就应该从治理的角度,寻求有效的地方治理之道,复合行政的理念就提供了这样一种新思路.     

Do party leadership contests forecast British general elections?

When assessing election forecasts, two important criteria emerge: their accuracy (precision) and lead time (distance to event). Curiously, in both 2010 and 2015 the most accurate forecasts came from models having the longest lead time—albeit at most 12 months. Can we increase the lead time further, supposing we tolerate a small decrease in accuracy? Here, we develop a model with a lead time of more than 3 years. Our Party Leadership Model relies on the votes of MPs when selecting their party leader. We assess the forecasting quality of our model with both leave-one-out cross-validation and a before-the-fact forecast of the 2019 general election. Compared to both simple forecasting methods and other scientific forecasts, our model emerges as a leading contender. This result suggests that election forecasting may benefit from developing models with longer lead times, and that party leaders may influence election outcomes more than is usually thought.     

Do mayors matter? Reverse coattails on congressional elections in Brazil

In federal democracies, parties often invest in local politics as a strategy to improve their performance on upcoming national elections. In this study, I use the concept of reverse coattails to investigate how winning local elections affect upper-level electoral dynamics in Brazil. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD), I show that parties in Brazil boost their national performance, earning more votes on House elections in districts where their members control local offices. I discuss how access to ‘‘pork” controlled by co-partisan House members and mechanical information gains explain these effects. Additionally, I use a Bayesian LASSO algorithm to address data sparsity in RDD designs, and to demonstrate the existence of pro-large party bias on the coattail effects. By disentangling the various effects of winning local elections, this paper contributes to a greater understanding of how parties build electoral strength in fragmented democracies.     

论优惠性货物原产地规则的双刃剑效应——兼及中国的实践

优惠性货物原产地规则可分为两大类,一为具体产品的原产地规则,另一为制度型原产地规则,前者主要包括CTC、VC及TP三种标准,后者主要包括微小含量规则、吸收规则、累积规则.其对区域经济发展具有双刃剑效应.中国已实施的七个优惠性原产地规则经历了由简单到复杂,由不完善到逐步完善的演变过程,在发挥应有的保护作用的同时,也在一定程度上限制了优惠待遇的利用.因此,在今后原产地规则的制订中宏观上要充分考虑原产地规则的双重效应;在微观标准设计上要充分发挥原产地规则的正面作用.     

The effect of EU structural funds on regional growth: assessing the evidence from Greece, 1990–2005

This paper brings empirical evidence on the impact of EU structural policy on regional income growth. The case of Greece over the period 1990–2005 is taken as an example. This period is characterized by the acceleration of the European integration process, with a central role assigned to the EU structural support to less prosperous regions. Regional growth is approached through the estimation of β-convergence equations using panel methods of estimation. The empirical results reveal a positive impact of structural funds support on regional growth while income convergence is enhanced. In addition, a significant influence of spatial income and unemployment spillovers on regional income growth is evidenced, illustrating the recent growth performance in Greece. Our results leave ample room for European regional policy to operate for the promotion of growth and the reduction of regional disparities.

区域协同立法博弈分析

区域协同立法是适应区域经济一体化发展的立法体制创新。这一创新过程的实质是代表各利益主体的立法机关之间的复杂博弈,既有基于观念分歧的立法理念的“博弈”,也有基于利益冲突的策略型重复博弈。针对可能出现的博弈困境,应建立学习与交流机制以提升各方对区域协同立法的认知水平,并充分照顾到各方正当利益,以提高各方的协作意愿;应以促进区域市场有效运作为导向规范各行政区的立法行为,建立双边或多边协商机制,逐步提升协同立法的水平。     

英国区际民事管辖权冲突的协调模式及对我国的启示

基于区际民事管辖权冲突特点的相似性,英国解决区际民事管辖权冲突的模式对我国有重要的借鉴意义。我国可以直接适用条约解决区际民事管辖权冲突,但应考虑我国各法域的条约适用方式,也可将条约内容转化为双边安排,分阶段逐步制订统一立法,并可考虑设置协调机构。