To Give or Not to Give: Modeling Individuals' Contribution Decisions

Employing data from a recent national survey on campaign finance, we examine the contribution behavior of individual citizens in the 2000 election. By disaggregating types of contributions, our model enables us to observe potential heterogeneity in the determinants of giving money to parties and candidates. We find that for both types of contributions, the effects of informational resources and solicitation on the decision to contribute outweigh those of financial resources. In addition, we propose both a theoretical and an empirical distinction between the selection effects of solicitation and the stimulus effects of solicitation. By distinguishing between these dual dimensions of solicitation, our analysis provides new insight into the causal linkages between income, solicitation, and contributions. We find that while solicitation increases the likelihood of contributing through selective targeting or rational prospecting, it also does so through a stimulus mechanism.     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

新阶段区域和谐发展的法治化系统研究

在新阶段社会发展不断深入、社会改革步伐不断加快的背景下，为推进区域和谐发展的法治化进程，探索区域和谐发展的法治化途径，包括构建多层次、可持续性的法律体系，构建法治与民主的互动机制，发展社会文化创新机制，对实现区域政治、经济、文化的和谐发展，促进社会公平正义的体现具有重要意义。     

区域经济发展中的地方政府创新

地方政府的创新对于促进区域经济的全面发展具有重要作用.因此,地方政府在区域经济发展中的角色需要进行正确的定位,即在遵守市场规律的前提下进行不断创新,为区域经济的发展提供更好的服务,从而促进区域经济的跨越发展.     

试论《劳动合同法》的实施效果与运行障碍

<劳动合同法>的颁布和实施引起强烈的社会反响,人们寄望于这部法律扭转当前的劳资格局,建立和谐稳定的劳动关系.但是,这部法律的良好实施取决于用人单位守法的自觉度、劳动者权利意识的觉醒度和劳动保障监察的力度.只有改革现行的社会保险制度,细化<劳动合同法>的抽象条款,加大<劳动合同法>的宣传力度和监察力度,才能取得良好的实施效果.     

广西沿海生产力布局若干问题研究

广西沿海(北海、钦州、防城港)开发建设中的生产力布局,直接影响该区域区位势能的发挥,事关广西北部湾经济区将来的发展格局。该区域合理的生产力布局要以区域经济理论为指导,立足于现有经济基础,正确处理布局与自然地理、产业选择、港口主体功能区、市场与资源的关系。     

区域经济合作中的公共政策缺失与对策

我国国内层面的区域经济合作的迅速发展，要求我国的区域公共政策适时调整。我国区域公共政策在政策目标、政策内容、政策机构、政策工具、政策协调和监控等方面存在着局限或缺失。我国应实施区域公共政策的转型和创新，从完善政策制度基础、调整政策目标导向、重构政策内容体系、组建区域政策管理机构、构建区域利益协调机制等方面重塑区域公共政策。     

中蒙关系发展中的大国因素探微

中蒙关系的发展不是一帆风顺的，但睦邻友好始终是两国关系发展的主流。由于蒙古处于特殊地理位置，其外交关系发展不可避免地受到美、俄、日等世界主要大国的影响，并进而影响中蒙关系的发展。     

发展中的东盟“中国观”：从威胁到机会？

本文旨在分析为何东盟国家曾经将中国视为威胁，如今却转变观念，将中国视为促进地区稳定和一体化的重要推动力。第一部分将阐述东盟国家对中国的官方立场的变化，即从“中国威胁论”向“中国机会论”的转变。在80年代，当中国的经济开放促进了其与南部周边国家之间的关系时，这种观念的转变尤为突出。第二部分认为，在欧美日经济发展呈现出保护主义趋势，并遭遇发展瓶颈的情况下，中国的发展为东盟国家的经济增长提供了新契机。同时，笔者着重分析了中国从地区的不稳定根源向地区安全保障者转化的原因。第三部分指出，尽管中国与东盟国家之间建立起了特殊关系，但中国无法排斥其他大国，尤其是日本与美国在该地区的影响力。     

论用科学发展观统领西部大开发

用科学发展观统领西部大开发，首先要深刻认识科学发展观的历史地位、实践基础和重大意义，同时要遵循一系列基本原则，把握新的发展思路。