Does contact with the justice system deter or promote future delinquency? Results from a longitudinal study of British adolescent twins

What impact does formal punishment have on antisocial conduct—does it deter or promote it? The findings from a long line of research on the labeling tradition indicate formal punishments have the opposite-of-intended consequence of promoting future misbehavior. In another body of work, the results show support for deterrence-based hypotheses that punishment deters future misbehavior. So, which is it? We draw on a nationally representative sample of British adolescent twins from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study to perform a robust test of the deterrence versus labeling question. We leverage a powerful research design in which twins can serve as the counterfactual for their co-twin, thereby ruling out many sources of confounding that have likely impacted prior studies. The pattern of findings provides support for labeling theory, showing that contact with the justice system—through spending a night in jail/prison, being issued an anti-social behaviour order (ASBO), or having an official record—promotes delinquency. We conclude by discussing the impact these findings may have on criminologists’ and practitioners’ perspective on the role of the juvenile justice system in society.     

The Impact of Discontinuation of the Medical Examiner System: Cases of Drowning in the Bathtub at Home

The incidence of death by drowning greatly varies among different prefectures in Japan, mainly due to climate difference. However, there could be other factors affecting the incidence of deaths besides climate, for example, differences in regional death investigation systems. Here, we aimed to elucidate other such factors affecting the mortality data of drowning in the bathtub, especially the effects of discontinuing the medical examiner system. Police data in Kyoto and ambulatory care information in Yokohama were used. Data on cases of elderly individuals found dying or dead in the bathtub at home in winter 2014–2015 were obtained. The following data were collected for each case: age, gender, presence/absence of ambulatory transport, performance of autopsy, and cause of death. The autopsy and drowning rates in Kyoto were 0%, whereas both values in Yokohama were significantly higher at 93.1% and 89.4%, respectively (the denominator of each of the rates is the total number of elderly (aged 65 or over) individuals found dying or dead in the bathtub at home in each city during each winter). Despite no significant difference of incidence of total bath-related death, the proportion of drowning-related deaths was overwhelmingly higher in Yokohama than in Kyoto. The difference can be attributed to the difference in autopsy rates between the two cities, mainly caused by the presence/absence of a medical examiner system. Therefore, we should pay careful attention to future changes in autopsy/drowning rates in Yokohama, and ascertain whether the change might be continuously influenced by the abolishment of this system.     

技术与民生:在线政务服务影响公共服务满意度的经验研究

本文应用期望不一致理论分析了在线政务服务对公共服务满意度的影响。在理论分析的基础上,采用Tobit模型,从公共教育、医疗卫生、住房保障、劳动就业、社会保障五个方面进行实证检验。实证研究结果表明:在线政务服务显著提升了公共服务的公众满意度,增强了人民群众的获得感;显著的在线政务服务区域差异不利于公共服务满意度的提升。进一步,本文利用有序Probit模型探讨了在线政务服务影响公共服务满意度的路径。研究发现,在线政务服务主要通过提升公共服务资源分布均衡度与获取公共服务资源便捷度的满意度来提升公共服务满意度。     

The Political Viability of Carbon Pricing: Policy Design and Framing in British Columbia and California

The adoption of climate policies with visible, substantial costs for households is uncommon because of expected political backlash, but British Columbia's carbon tax and California's cap‐and‐trade program imposed such costs and still survived vigorous opposition. To explain these outcomes, this article tests hypotheses concerning policy design, framing, energy prices, and elections. It conducts universalizing and variation‐finding comparisons across three subcases in the two jurisdictions and uses primary sources to carry out process tracing involving mechanisms of public opinion and elite position‐taking. The article finds strong support for the timing of independent energy price changes, exogenous causes of election results, reducing the visibility of carbon pricing, and using public‐benefit justifications, as well as some support for making concessions to voters. By contrast, the effects of the use of revenue, industry exemptions/compensations, and making polluters pay are not uniform, because the effects of revenue use depend on how it is embedded in coalition building efforts and a middle path between exempting or compensating industry and burdening it appears to be more effective than pursuing just one or the other approach.     

Identifying Media Effects Through Low-Cost,Multiwave Field Experiments

Field experiments are notoriously difficult to implement when studying media effects. They are often prohibitively expensive, require the cooperation of a nonacademic entity, and measure effects some time after exposure to treatment. In this article, we outline a design for low-cost, multiwave field experiments of media effects. Researchers can implement this design on their own and can control the timing of when they measure effects. We demonstrate the feasibility of the design with an application to the study of presidential debates.     

Parliamentary Questions,Newspaper Coverage,and Consumer Confidence in Times of Crisis: A Cross-National Comparison

This article investigates the interactions among parliamentary questions, newspaper coverage on the economic crisis, and consumer confidence. It focuses on France, Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands for the period 2005–2016. Based on insights from political agenda-setting and media effects research, we expect multidirectional relationships to be present. Parliamentary records and newspaper archives are used to analyze the monthly amount of attention for the economic crisis. Pooled time series models and vector autoregression analyses are employed to demonstrate that indeed, politicians, journalists, and citizens depend on one another, but also that remarkable cross-national and over-time differences exist. In the countries where the economy was severely damaged by the crisis (France and Spain), news coverage is less strongly affecting both parliamentarians and citizens. However, when the economic situation worsens, political agenda-setting influences get stronger,while media effects on consumer confidence becomeweaker over time.     

论房屋登记手续在合同中的效力

本文通过两个案例、四份合同,分析论证厂房屋的租赁、抵押、买卖行为,法律规定登记手续的三种不同效力;一是行政备案登记,二是生效对抗登记,三是物权转移登记。     

WTO的金融服务贸易协定及中国的对策

加入 WTO,我国金融银行业面临的挑战与冲击主要来自于 WTO的金融服务贸易协定及其金融服务贸易自由化宗旨。该协定一方面将促进我国银行业的深化改革 ,另一方面又会产生风险效应。这些风险的形成主要源于我国金融体系的脆弱性。因此 ,面对挑战 ,只有正视自身存在的问题 ,找到差距所在 ,才能抓住时机 ,制定对策 ,有效化解“入世”后的冲击与风险。     

WTO争端解决机制的强制性及对内国法的影响

WTO争端解决机制因其以规则导向为主的司法模式、强制管辖权和强制执行力等独特性区别于GATT的争端解决机制,克服了长期为学者所诟病的“软弱性”,使其强制性得以确立和加强,并被认为是对传统国际法的一种突破和发展。以规则导向为主的司法模式为WTO争端解决报告实现对内国法律之影响提供了一种可能;进而,随着强制管辖权和强制执行力的确立,这种可能性上升为一种必然性,这种影响无论在力度、广度,还是深度上均强于ICJ和NAFTA。事实上,WTO争端解决报告也迫使或促使多个主权国家撤销或修改其法律法规以符合WTO义务,其对成员方内国法的影响不可谓不大。     

东亚区域合作与欧洲一体化的发展模式比较

东亚区域合作不同于欧洲的统一观念和制度化建设,主要来自于权力与利益的互动联系,运行中突出市场导向而缺乏制度规范.应认真总结欧洲一体化历程的经验,并与东亚地区合作模式进行比较,以新地区主义视角来探讨适合东亚特色的地区主义合作道路.东亚区域合作应发挥东盟的地区主导作用,完善东盟与中日韩的"10 3"合作机制,共同塑造东亚新地区主义的开放性、协商性和多层次性的特点,实现利益共同体的发展目标.