Mexicans react to electoral fraud and political corruption: an assessment of public opinion and voting behavior

Despite various electoral reforms enacted in Mexico between 1988 and 1994, large numbers of Mexicans doubted the honesty of elections and the general integrity of their country's policy making process. Such doubts did not automatically lead, however, to support for opposition parties that called for greater democratization. Rather, voter preferences were largely dependent on judgments about the opposition's viability and competence. Widespread suspicions about fraud and corruption in Mexico did affect electoral outcomes by making it less likely that potential opposition supporters turned out to vote. Data are drawn from seven national public opinion surveys conducted in Mexico in 1986, 1988, 1991, 1994 (3 polls), and 1995.     

中国妇女参政十年回顾与评估

该文对于1995年至2005年的中国妇女参政进行回顾评估,从四个方面展开:第一,将十年妇女参政置于解放后的历史背景下,描述加强制定性别保障政策的意义和实践。第二,发现女性民主参与对我国公共政策推进的价值。第三,与国际社会妇女参政进行比较,与我国民主党派进行比较,分析这十年妇女参政停滞不前的状况和原因。第四,分析参政女性在权力结构中的边缘地位,认为导致女性政治参与更多表现出的是非权力的外围参与,对公共政策的影响效果有限。     

欧盟与东盟区域一体化发展模式之比较

区域化是当今世界的一个重要发展趋势。欧盟和东盟是当今世界发展最为引人注目的区域组织。它们的发展不仅对本地区的政治、经济产生了巨大的影响,同时,也在世界的经济发展和政治稳定中扮演着重要的角色。比较分析两大区域组织发展模式,有利于加深我国与它们的合作,推动各方的经济和政治的发展,以开创“共赢”的局面。     

文化在区域经济中的整合功能——以山西区域经济发展为例

随着区域经济的发展,文化在其中所起到的价值整合作用越来越突出。文章以山西区域经济发展为例,提出文化的整合功能主要表现在五个方面:提高城市品位;提升商品的附加值;挖掘人的经济品质;增加社会凝聚力;使区域经济在发展过程中深深打上文化的印记。因此,文化与经济的整合是区域经济发展的一个新方向。     

The Making of a Corporatist State in Hong Kong: The Road to Sectoral Intervention

Extant Hong Kong studies have under-stated the corporatist nature of the Hong Kong state. From the 1980s, as part of its political strategy, the Chinese government had helped to build a corporatist state in Hong Kong that incorporated various sectoral elites, leading to a change in the role of the state after 1997. Through an empirical study of the behaviour of functional constituency legislators and policy outputs after 1997, this article shows that the functional constituencies as a corporatist structure introduced many sector-oriented demands. These sectoral representatives lobbied for favourable polices, increased representation for their sectors, and more state resources. This drove the post-1997 Hong Kong state to sectoral intervention, as resources were diverted to selected sectors, creating new legitimacy problems for the regime.     

台湾南北区域产业经济发展失衡之多层面多因素分析——以PAM理论架构为视角

区域产业经济发展失衡不仅是发展中国家或地区的顽症，同样也是发达国家或地区的难题。本次研究以台湾地区南北产业经济发展为例，打破以往的“单层面研究”，创新性地引入公共事务管理整合（PAM）架构，采用深度访谈、参与式观察、实地调研、文献阅读等多种方式，层层抽丝剥茧，展开对台湾南北软环境、硬环境、自然资源（条件面）的差异性研究，进一步探析条件面上的差异对台湾南北部的民众、政府官员、专家学者在事实判断、价值判断、个体与群体的兼顾联结（本质面）上的影响，以及对台湾南北经济、社会、政治等宏观影响（现象面）。研究发现，台湾南北产业经济发展失衡的根本原因并非表面的政府与政策失灵，而是受民情文化（条件面）、公民认知（本质面）、社会政治（现象面）等深层次、多因素的影响。在两岸交流进入加速阶段的时代背景下，文章最后建设性地提出改善两岸关系的新启示。     

Discovering the Dark Side of Power: The Principal’s Moral Hazard in Political-Bureaucratic Relations

Principal agent (PA) is among the most prominent concepts for analyzing the relationship between politics and bureaucracy. Nonethelesss, the inherent bias of PA scholars to attribute moral hazard almost exclusively to the agent, usually referred to as “bureaucratic drift”, requires re-examination. Building on the spare literature in which moral hazard of the principal is considered, this paper provides empirical evidence for a neglected aspect of the PA concept. Three cases of German regulatory agencies responsible for drug control, financial services and rail safety are analyzed in critical situations which were largely perceived as bureaucratic failures. The analysis reveals that a good deal of these failures, ranging from negligence to suppressing crucial information, has to be attributed to the political principal. This is called the dark side of power because the intention is to shift blame or to dodge political responsibility. Turning conventional PA reasoning upside down, the conclusion is that the principal’s moral hazard should be considered more routinely as a potential explanation for political-bureaucratic interactions.     

地区安全治理的未来:走向亚洲协调

作者首次提出了"亚洲协调"的概念,讨论了亚洲协调对未来亚洲及太平洋地区安全治理的必要性和长远性。尽管最早的主要国家之间协调(concert of powers)的理论与实践是19世纪的、欧洲的,但是,关于主要国家之间协调(不仅是大国协调)的一般理论却同样可以运用在解决21世纪的亚洲(以及太平洋)的严峻安全挑战和困境上。这些挑战和困境在未来可能会进一步演化为严重的大国之间的对抗甚至冲突。更重要的是,亚洲协调将注定会阻止战争、实现长期和平及维持本地区的经济活力。也就是说,如果亚洲协调明智地和有效地建立并运作起来,到2079年,亚洲以及太平洋将拥有一百年的和平,如同欧洲在1815-1914年拥有的百年和平。从1979年到现在,亚洲地区已经享受了接近四十年的和平。在过去二十多年建立起来的地区或者跨地区的论坛、会议、组织和制度等,反映了治理亚洲地区的权力转移的企图和努力;尽管这些安排相互重叠、尚未彼此兼容,甚至相互竞争,但我们完全可以把它们当做未来亚洲协调的基础。虽然目前的地区安全治理仍然由美国及其同盟体系占据主导地位,但美国也不得不重视复杂的安全地区主义。有不少人建议美国应该以亚洲协调作为未来解决与中国关系的方案。中国已经为建立在经济发展基础上的亚洲和平做出重大贡献。中国已与美国建立"新型大国关系"回应美国的"转向亚洲"。中国在亚洲协调中的地位是中心的和关键的。     

Voting Advice Applications and the Estimation of Party Positions – A Reliable Tool?

Data contained in Voting Advice Applications (VAA s) is not only a prerequisite for the vote recommendations they provide but can also be used for estimating party positions in low‐dimensional spaces. Given that VAA s can be designed differently in terms of their number of items and their measurement level, how much can one trust the party positions obtained from this source? We tackle this question by exploiting relevant variation in a real‐world setting: three VAA s offered at the 2017 Lower Saxony election. Despite substantial design differences, the policy spaces extracted through an inductive scaling approach are highly convergent. Simulated random item removal from the pooled dataset of all three VAA s furthermore suggests that about 40 items yield satisfactory reliability of the party positions. Finally, we find that a priori assigning VAA ‐items to ideological dimensions is potentially problematic as the interpretation of resulting party spaces may differ from the ones derived inductively.     

国际制度设计视角下的澜湄合作

为什么在湄公河流域已经存在数十个国际合作机制的情况下,还要建立澜湄合作(LMC)这一新型次区域合作机制?既有研究大多强调湄公河流域大国国际制度主导权竞争的宏观背景因素,而较少关注澜湄合作机制的新制度特征及其形成原因,即澜湄新型次区域合作机制究竟"新在何处"。与大湄公河次区域经济合作机制(GMS)等既有国际机制相比,澜湄合作机制具有两大新的制度特征:一是议题范围更加广泛,除了传统的区域经济合作议题外,还增加了区域安全合作以及水资源合作等新议题;二是集中程度更高,与之前合作机制主要由"职能部门引领"以及"借用"亚洲开发银行作为国际秘书处的做法不同,澜湄合作机制采取了"领导人引领、各部门参与"的机制运行模式,并逐步建立独立的国际秘书处。通过运用国际制度理性设计的理论模型,本文考察了在湄公河流域国际合作中上游国家与下游国家之间所面临的日益严峻的分配问题和执行问题,并以此解释了澜湄合作新制度特征的形成原因。