On prediction in political science

This article discusses recent moves in political science that emphasise predicting future events rather than theoretically explaining past ones or understanding empirical generalisations. Two types of prediction are defined: pragmatic, and scientific. The main aim of political science is explanation, which requires scientific prediction. Scientific prediction does not necessarily entail pragmatic prediction nor does it necessarily refer to the future, though both are desiderata for political science. Pragmatic prediction is not necessarily explanatory, and emphasising pragmatic prediction will lead to disappointment, as it will not always help in understanding how to intervene to change future outcomes, and policy makers are likely to be disappointed by its time-scale.     

Approaches to decolonising forensic curricula

Forensic science in UK Higher Education involves a constellation of subdisciplines, each with a biography shaped by a colonial past. Deeper examinations of the structures of curriculum design allow educators to address where colonial assumptions may reside and the impact of these legacies on the present. One process to assist this endeavour is Decolonising the Curriculum (DtC), which seeks to question and dismantle colonial structures of knowledge and support contextualisation to broaden, rather than narrow, the curricula. DtC toolkits, like those developed at the University of Winchester in the south of England, may provide practical support to programme teams to reflect on how colonial attitudes shape new and existing curricula. DtC may be seen as supporting existing quality processes that are part of the reflection cycle and tested through institutional and other accreditation quality procedures. Toolkits support programme teams to identify existing good practices and areas requiring further reflection and development. We offer perspectives on areas that would benefit from critical evaluation when teaching subjects with foundations in race science, colonial attitudes, and social injustice. The paper focuses on three main approaches to support decolonial discourse: sustained historical inquiry, questioning ethnic classifications and identity, and the presentation of international forensic work. Rather than seeing DtC as a threat to educational quality, it may be more constructively seen as an integral part of quality processes in curriculum design to support more diverse, inclusive, and authentic learning in forensic Higher Education.     

青岛地区汉族人群13个STR基因座的频率分布及法医学应用

目的　调查青岛地区汉族人群无关个体的 13个STR基因座 (D3S135 8、VWA、FGA、D8S1179、D2 1S11、D18S5 1、D5S818、D13S317、D7S82 0、D16S5 39、TH0 1、TPOX、CSFIPO)的基因频率分布 ,研究其遗传多态性及其在法医学个体识别及亲子鉴定中的应用价值。　方法　用美国ABI - 310型遗传分析仪对ProfilerPlus和Cofiler两个系统的 13个STR基因座的复合扩增产物进行毛细管电泳及四色荧光自动分析检测 ,基因分型软件为GeneScanv3.1和Genotyperv2 .5 .2。　 结果　获得 13个STR基因座在青岛地区汉族人群的基因频率分布数据 ,13个STR基因座的PIC >0 .5 ,DP >0 .71,CCE =0 .999999,TDP值接近 1,TPm =1.2× 10 -14 ,家系调查符合孟德尔遗传规律。　结论　ProfilerPlus和Cofiler两个系统的 13个STR基因座在法医学个体识别及亲子鉴定中具有较高的应用价值。     

Weight of evidence from mRNA data: Implementation of an LR-system for forensic body fluid identification in casework

After developing an LR-system to calculate weight of evidence from mRNA data [1] we here present how this LR-system is used in forensic casework. We aim to convey the weight of the evidence in forensic reports.     

浅析公安科技信息化建设实践中应处理好的三个关系

公安科技信息化建设是公安机关在信息时代推动科技进步、实施“科技强警”战略,实现公安工作跨越式发展和可持续发展的重要手段。当前公安科技信息化建设面临着不小的压力,公安部门应统筹协调、综合处理形成上下对接融合、左右协同配合以及内外信息共享的关系,以便于在公安工作转型升级阶段,为公安科技信息化建设提供更多动力。     

Performance of EuroForMix deconvolution on PowerPlex® Fusion 6C profiles

Deconvolving mixed autosomal short tandem repeat profiles can be useful for database searching, profile comparisons and weight of evidence evaluations. This study describes results for the Top Marginal deconvolution within EuroForMix. Ratio To Next values were defined above which the major contributor’s genotype in PowerPlex® Fusion 6C profiles was predicted correctly and can be used as thresholds for storage in a national DNA database.     

齐奥尔科夫斯基与全球学

俄罗斯自然科学家齐奥尔科夫斯基是宇航学的奠基人,他通过宇航学影响了我们每个人的生活。他的宇宙哲学内涵丰富,既包含了宗教、哲学内容,同时又为人类指出一条通往＂完善、美好未来＂之路——飞向宇宙,是关于整个人类未来的庞大计划。通常认为,齐氏在技术文明理想和准则基础上制订的庞大的改造地球、征服宇宙计划,预言了当今时髦的稳定发展的思想。但是,齐氏提出的改造地球计划是极度反生态的,而且试图通过人类的宇宙扩张解决全球问题,目前看来存在很多问题。因此,摆在人类面前的任务是寻找符合后工业时代的理想和价值的、能够解决人类面临的全球危机的途径。     

浅论高技术战争对官兵文化素质高起点的要求

随着21世纪的到来和我军现代化步伐的加快,我军官兵科学文化素质不高的问题已越来越突出,直接制约和影响着我军的建设与发展。面对高技术战争对军队官兵文化素质的高起点和高要求,我军除加强科技练兵外,当对我军各级指挥员科学文化素质的提高加快步伐,加大我国现行《兵役法》兵员质量条件改革的力度,从根本上解决我军官兵科技文化素质偏低的问题。     

探索与求证——一本监狱学教科书的写作历程

良好的监狱学教科书是开展高质量的监狱学教学工作的必备要素。教科书《监狱学导论》是在监狱领域中进行20多年学习、思考、研究和积累的结果。在写作之前,开展了大量实地考察和调查研究工作,为本书的写作奠定了重要的实务基础。同时,对中国现代化文明监狱、监狱拥挤状况、监狱机构设置、罪犯改造理论、当代西方国家监狱状况等方面的专题研究,为本书的写作准备了重要的理论观点。     

关于科技强警的哲学思考(上)——刑事侦查辩证法研究之三

在刑警队伍中实施科技强警的目标是提高和增强其战斗力,战斗力与战斗力因素是两个既相互联系,又有区别的不同的范畴,提高刑事警察队伍的战斗力因素,增强其整体功能,就是实现强警目标的重要途径之一.决定战斗力强弱的因素包括两个方面一是战斗力因素总和;一是对刑事侦查工作的主观指导.要想提高和增强刑事警察的战斗力,就必须从这两个方面入手.