Developing a theory of dynamic risk

ABSTRACT

The Propensities Model is now the dominant applied conceptualization of dynamic risk factors for sexual offending. In this paper five important limitations of this model are identified: it asserts causality but does not explain it; it does not represent human agency; it offers no account of what is involved in the development of propensities; it does not explain stable change in risk; and its account of the operation of static factors is a theoretical leap not supported by the evidence. A more elaborate theoretical framework is developed by integrating ideas from Ward's Good Lives model, Beck's account of schema modes, and Fishbein and Ajzen's Theory of Reasoned Action. This more elaborate framework incorporates the Propensities Model in a way that mitigates its limitations. Implications for research, assessment, and rehabilitation are explored.     

Dynamic risk factors: scientific kinds or predictive constructs

ABSTRACT

There are a number of theoretical problems evident in the concept of dynamic risk factors that arise from their (increasing) importation into the explanatory and treatment domains of forensic and correctional practice. More specifically: (a) the concept of dynamic risk factors has not been well defined; (b) relatedly, there is a lack of clarity whether dynamic risk factors refer to causal processes or are predictive constructs; and finally (c) because of the above problems no one is sure how best to integrate them into clinical assessment and treatment. I will examine each of these three conceptual problems in this paper and make some suggestions about how to utilise dynamic risk factors in explanations of offending.     

The harms of human trafficking: demonstrating the applicability and value of a new framework for systematic,empirical analysis

This article uses human trafficking in Belgium to test a newly developed framework for assessing the harms of crime that has been applied previously to cocaine trafficking in the same country. We chose this criminal activity because of its policy relevance and to address apparent needs for systematic, evidence-based analysis. The framework uses quantitative and qualitative evidence to assess harms to individuals, private-sector entities, and others and to establish crime control priorities. The assessment process models the activity, evaluates the severity and incidence of harms, ranks priorities, and considers causality. We highlight three findings. First, trafficking victims can experience catastrophic harms, but the overall dimensions of human trafficking in Belgium appear to be modest. Second, the evidence suggests significant recent declines in the degree of exploitation and use of violence. Third, most harms to individual victims result directly from the activity, which sets it apart from other forms of trafficking.     

The stop and think group: Changing sexually aggressive behaviour in young children

Abstract

Until recently, relatively little attention has been paid to young children who are sexually aggressive to other children. In this paper, cognitive-behavioural group techniques which have been used in the treatment of aggressive, impulsive behaviour in young children were applied in a small group setting to the sexually aggressive behaviour of pre-pubescent boys. The boys initially learned a ‘Stop and Think” model for general interpersonal problem-solving, which was then used to work on their difficulties with verbal and physical sexual aggression. Observation of the children's behaviour, reports from carers, school staff and social workers indicated that the group programme increased the children's ability to inhibit impulsive, aggressive behaviour. In the nine months after the group finished there were no known incidents of sexual aggression. In the context of certain limitations discussed in the paper, this positive outcome suggests that these methods have potential for reducing the likelihood of sexually aggressive behaviour becoming habitual.     

The Effect of Statewide Residency Restrictions on Sex Offender Post-Release Housing Mobility

Securing stable housing may be difficult for returning offenders in general, and these concerns may be exacerbated for sex offenders. In addition to the barriers faced by other returning offenders, sex offenders face intense stigma and once released to the community, they are also subject to additional legal restrictions. The current study explores the effect of statewide residency restriction policies on housing mobility using a unique sample of male sex offenders released in a Midwestern state. The research is based on a quasi-experimental cohort control group design and it describes the frequency and correlation of movement for pre- and post-statewide residency restriction legislation samples. Sex offenders released after the implementation of residency restrictions moved more often and had relatively high degrees of housing mobility compared to offenders released prior to the legislation. The results have important implications for reentry programming and post-release services for sex offenders.     

Gender expectations and their impact on black female offenders and victims

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between failure to register (FTR) as a sex offender and subsequent recidivism (N = 2,970). No significant differences were found between the sexual recidivism rates of those who failed to register and compliant registrants (11% vs. 9%, respectively). There was no significant difference in the proportion of sexual recidivists and nonrecidivists with registration violations (12% vs. 10%, respectively). FTR did not predict sexual recidivism, and survival analyses revealed no significant difference in time to recidivism when comparing those who failed to register (2.9 years) with compliant registrants (2.8 years). Results fail to support the supposition that sexual offenders who fail to register are more sexually dangerous than those who comply with registration requirements. The punitive emphasis on registration enforcement may not be justified and might divert limited resources away from strategies that would better facilitate public protection from sexual violence.     

A SENTIMENTAL JOURNEY TO CRIME: EFFECTS OF RESIDENTIAL HISTORY ON CRIME LOCATION CHOICE*

Many offenses take place close to where the offender lives. Anecdotal evidence suggests that offenders also might commit crimes near their former homes. Building on crime pattern theory and combining information from police records and other sources, this study confirms that offenders who commit robberies, residential burglaries, thefts from vehicles, and assaults are more likely to target their current and former residential areas than similar areas they never lived in. In support of the argument that spatial awareness mediates the effects of past and current residence, it also is shown that areas of past and present residence are more likely to be targeted if the offender lived in the area for a long time instead of briefly and if the offender has moved away from the area only recently rather than a long time ago. The theoretical implications of these findings and their use for investigative purposes are discussed, and suggestions for future inquiry are made.     

宽严相济刑事政策视野下的老年人犯罪及其对策

人口老龄化进程中,老年人犯罪问题越加突显。呈现出以下特点:犯罪率不高但增长较快;以财产犯罪为主,暴力和性犯罪增多,呈多元化趋势;手段具有隐蔽性、个体性、智能性等;地域主要本地化,农村老年人犯罪突出。老年人犯罪成因的落脚点在于其自身特殊性,如社会地位、角色和价值变化,经济性依存,身心健康等因素。对老年人犯罪的刑事政策应贯彻"宽严相济、宽和为主"的思想,并在诉讼程序和策略、裁判和处遇,以及刑事法规定上具体化。     

Sexual offenders’ treatment experience: a qualitative and quantitative investigation

Abstract

This research investigates the where and when of sexual assaults to determine what types of sexual crimes are committed at different time and place classifications. Exhaustive CHAID (chi-squared automatic interaction detection) analyses are conducted, examining factors associated with crimes that were committed indoors or outdoors, in private or public places, during the day or at night, and during the week or on the weekend. These methods are applied to a sample of 361 sexual crime events committed by 72 serial sex offenders. The results are strikingly different dependent on which spatial or temporal aspect of the crime is examined, which implies the complexity of sexual crime events and their situational components. This research brings to light possible policy implications with respect to situational crime prevention.