当前我国非直接利益冲突频发的体制性根源

近年频发的非直接利益冲突是社会矛盾的新形态,是改革开放过程中经济—政治—行政—社会等体制性弊端日积月累的必然产物。这些弊端主要表现为经济利益高度分化所导致的"相对剥夺感"、参与制度供给不足所导致的"权利贫困"、公共权力异化和政府治理能力滞后所导致的"合法性危机"及公民社会发育不良所导致的"公共空间萎缩"。     

从危机管理看逻辑思维在民警培训中的缺失

当危机出现时,若不及时控制事态的发展,就会导致问题复杂化,甚至出现事态愈演愈烈的情形。为了在危机出现的第一时间抓住处理问题的关键、找准化解冲突的办法、把握事态发展的趋势,必须迅速作出规划决策,这对规划决策人能否应用严密的逻辑思维化解危机是一个考验。为此提出,民警培训应当加入逻辑思维的训练内容,并创新培训方式。     

Alternative action organizations across different welfare and third sector regimes during hard economic times

ABSTRACT

Since 2008, the international economic and financial crisis has been affecting the living and working conditions of European citizens in different ways and scope. Yet, the pattern is of rising unemployment, social deprivation and poverty, cuts in health, education and social security budgets. These negative socio-economic conditions have led to major transformations in collective responses, which, among others, take place through Alternative Action Organisations (AAOs). The specific organizations carry out non-mainstream activities that primarily target the economic and the social well-being of citizens, including their basic needs, health and lifestyles. Using quantitative data from the LIVEWHAT project and drawing on social origins theory and resource mobilization theory, the article investigates AAOs’ main characteristics across four European countries that have been differently affected from the recent recession as well as belong to different welfare state and third sector regimes, including Germany, Greece, Sweden and Poland. The findings stress the importance of considering the particular combinations of the welfare state and third sector regimes as well as the severity of the experienced economic crisis in understating the variation in AAOs’ main features under a comparative perspective.     

重大疫情风险预防:理论基础、实践反思与机制建构——基于“新冠”疫情初期风险防控的考察

疫情风险的高度不确定性、巨大传染性和严重破坏性,要求我们必须构建有效的防控机制,尽最大限度防止疫情风险向公共危机转化。风险社会理论、系统脆弱性理论和社会燃烧理论为疫情风险预防机制的建构提供了理论范式。武汉市在“新冠”疫情发生初期的防控实践为疫情风险预防机制的建构提供了经验教训。风险致灾机理为疫情风险防控预防机制的建构提供了逻辑基础。重大疫情风险防控预防机制包括风险隔离机制、阻断机制、防御机制和信息沟通机制四大组成部分。     

Beliefs of political leaders: conditions for change in the Eurozone crisis

Abstract

Leadership studies research reveals that political leaders’ beliefs affect their political and policymaking behaviour, especially in times of crisis. Moreover, the level of flexibility of these beliefs influences the likelihood that groups of leaders come to collective decisions. Insight into when and why political leaders do, in fact, change their beliefs is sorely lacking. This paper uses fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to examine the antecedents of belief changes among 12 European leaders, all working in the realm of economic policy. Its findings reveal how increases in unemployment and unsustainable debt, as well as different government ideologies and increases in Euroscepticism lead to economic belief changes. In so doing, this paper begins to open the ‘black box’ of when, why, and under what conditions leaders change their beliefs.     

社区公共危机教育供给的特征、困境与优化策略——基于复杂适应系统视角

社区公共危机教育供给系统是一个复杂适应系统,具有聚集性、非线性和共生性特征。受主体能力、关系模式、制度条件影响,社区公共危机教育供给系统面临供给动力、供给结构及供给信息多维困境考验,有待通过优化策略进一步完善现有供给机制,提高供给效能。具体包括:发挥正向标识引导,强化系统合力效应;完善协同供给规则,促发系统涌现效应;运用“互联网+”优势,放大共同体效应。     

The politics of quantitative easing and housing stimulus by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, 2008‒2018

Abstract

Central banks have been important yet underexplored actors in the fight against the Great Recession. In addition to ultra-low interest rates, they adopted large-scale bond-buying programmes known as quantitative easing (QE). Yet there is significant variation in QE programmes with important distributive consequences. Why has the Fed adopted multi-trillion-dollar bond-buying programmes in housing, while the ECB has not? This article argues that the Fed targeted the integrated housing finance market as a monetary transmission strategy to stimulate core elements of the US growth model: credit, demand, and consumption. In contrast, the ECB hardly stimulated housing given the eurozone’s fragmented housing finance markets and the macroeconomic frictions with some eurozone growth models, particularly export-oriented Germany. Analysing archival and interview data, this article traces the decisions of these central banks since the Great Recession, contributing to scholarship on the politics of central banking, economic policy in hard times, and the welfare state.     

公共危机中民众的自组织机制及其约束--以抗击新冠肺炎疫情为例

风险社会中,政府需要与企业、民众、社会组织进行协商合作,以分散和化解风险。对抗击新冠肺炎疫情的案例分析发现,在集体行动的视域下,公共危机中民众的秩序维护型自组织具有复制、嵌入、相变三种机制。复制式、嵌入式、相变式自组织的任务性均很强,相变式自组织的结构性最强,嵌入式自组织的结构性最弱。它们显著区别于党政组织的强制机制、企业组织的交换机制,也与非政府组织的志愿机制不完全相同。这些自组织对于解决公共危机问题、有效动员组织民众、强化政府元治理能力意义重大,同时也受到开放性、规则性、状态性、反馈性等约束。面对挑战,我们既要通过空间让渡和规则建设来提升社会的自组织化,也要强化个人的责任性,通过提升民众的素养与能力,让个体承担更多社会责任。     

Social inequalities and collective action in times of crisis: The case of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area

During the international financial crisis, Portugal found itself in a very difficult and vulnerable socioeconomic situation that has led to an increase in social inequalities. This article seeks to understand two things: firstly, how much the impacts of the crisis contributed to a general perception that people's social position has gone backwards, compared to their pre-crisis situations; secondly, whether it is possible to link this generalized perception that living conditions have gone downhill to an increase in and diversification of collective action practices. The authors analyse data from a 2014 survey of 1,500 residents of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, which they use to measure how far the level of collective action practices has increased and varied in accordance with a set of social inequality indicators, such as resource and educational inequalities.     

The Future of the Chinese Economy: Four Perspectives

ABSTRACT

This article studies the future prospect of the Chinese economy using four different perspectives: neo-classical, Marxian, world-system and climate stabilisation. While the neo-classical perspective suggests that China can maintain a relatively decent pace of economic growth for decades to come, the Marxian analysis finds that the Chinese economy will confront a major crisis in the coming years due to internal contradictions of capitalist accumulation. The world-system analysis suggests that there has been a “ceiling of development” that historically has limited the scope of development for the great majority of the world population and China will hit this “ceiling of development” within about a decade. Moreover, if China were to fulfil its climate stabilisation obligations, it may prove to be impossible for the current system to maintain economic and political stability.