Measuring Civilian Defensive Firearm Use: A Methodological Experiment

Estimates of the incidence of victim gun use from the National CrimeVictimization Survey (NCVS) are consistently lower than are those fromother studies. To examine the divergence, we conducted a survey that gaugedthe impact of methodological differences between the NCVS and the otherstudies. For half of the sample, we asked questions from the NCVS, followedby questions from the other surveys. For the other half of the sample, wepresented the questions in the reverse order. We examined two hypotheses:(1) survey methods account for the divergent results, and (2) the questionscover unrelated activities. The results provided some support for the firsthypothesis, but respondents also reported many more defenses to thequestions from the other surveys than to the NCVS questions. Consistent withthe second hypothesis, this suggests that the NCVS and the other surveysmeasure responses to largely different provocations.     

新入狱罪犯的特点及改造对策探析

受社会政治、经济发展变化的影响,我省近三年内新收押罪犯的构成出现了新的变化,其心理和行为均出现了新的特征,对刑罚执行工作提出了新的挑战。笔者采取情况普查与个案调查相结合、摸底分析与座谈讨论相结合的方法,对我省2001年1月1日至2003年8月31日期间监狱新收押的罪犯情况进行了调查研究,从新入狱罪犯的构成特点和其心理行为特征分析入手,提出相应的改造对策,为我省的监管安全和教育改造工作提供了有用的参考和必要的理论支撑。     

The acceptance,relevance and dominance of lobbying the EU Commission — a first‐time survey of the EU Commission's civil servants

Among public affairs techniques lobbying is by far the most mystifying one — at least in Europe. Lobbying comes from the Latin word ‘labium’ and means ‘entrance hall’ or ‘lounge’. Therein the essential meaning can be seen: today political decisions are not made in plenary assemblies but primarily in the pre‐political phase of balancing the various interests. Lobbying is to be understood as the ‘diverse intensive activities of social groups, chambers and companies in the political and bureaucratic vestibule’ (Beyme 1980). Modern lobbying on the EU level is an intermediary policy for the support of political decision making — even if some critics refuse to believe it. Lobbying at EU level has become a politically realistic dimension. Even if the mass media still take a very sceptical and negative view of lobbying in Brussels, based on the existing European taboo on influencing politics, an in‐depth analysis reveals various lobbies at work in EU institutions. Lobbying today is an essential part of all EU decision areas. This paper describes the functional theory approach of lobbying known as ‘cooperation as confrontation through communication’. For the first time, recipients of lobbying in the EU Commission are demonstrating their acceptance of lobbying efforts. The paper is based on the doctoral thesis ‘The acceptance, relevance and dominance of lobbying the EU Commission’ by Peter Koeppl, University of Vienna (unpublished). Copyright © 2001 Henry Stewart Publications     

Strategic coalition voting: Evidence from New Zealand

Whereas the classic literature on strategic voting has focused on the dilemma faced by voters who prefer a candidate for whom they expect has little chance of winning a seat, we consider the dilemma faced by voters in PR systems who do not expect their preferred party to be in government. We develop hypotheses relating to strategic voting over multi-party governments that we test using the New Zealand Election Study (NZES) campaign study of 2002. We find evidence that expectations play a role in structuring vote choice. While there is clear evidence of wishful thinking there is also evidence that voters respond to expectations about government formation. These expectations may mobilize voters and lead them to defect from their first preference.     

Policy,office and votes: An experimental investigation of the dynamic aspect of party goals

Political parties face hard choices when balancing desires to influence public policy, to gain executive office and to win votes. The existing literature examining such party preferences has traditionally focused on rather static aspects of the parties, such as size, policy positions and the level of intraparty democracy. This article argues that party actors' sophisticated estimations of whether to enter into coalition can be affected by fluctuating public opinion, thereby having a more dynamic aspect. Drawing on a survey experiment on youth politicians in Norway, we test how perceived standing in the polls affects how politicians weigh up policy versus office and votes versus office. The experimental effect of perceived standings was investigated in addition to the respondents' positions within the party, as well as their parties' former governing history, political orientation and size. Results show that, in the presence of the treatment condition (party is perceived to do well in the polls), the preference for policy over office is lessened. We find no experimental effect for vote versus office. These results advance our understanding of the dynamic aspects of party goals and coalition formation.     

Collaboration or competition? Experimental evidence for coalition heuristics

Does coalition formation have a causal effect on the perceived ideological distance between the coalition members? Observational research shows that voters typically think of parties that form a coalition government as more ideologically similar than those that do not, holding everything else constant. Their many qualities aside, the existing studies are not able to establish a causal relationship between coalition formation and changing perceptions. It is quite possible that voters are reacting to concurrent changes in parties' stated policy and not the coalition information itself. In this paper, I present two survey experiments that isolate the difference between telling voters that two parties can cooperate and telling them that they cannot. In both experiments, I find evidence supporting the theory of coalition heuristics.     

Decision‐making during international crises: A reexamination

The purpose of this research note is to reexamine the methods and codings of crisis decision‐making processes performed by Herek, Janis, and Huth in 1987, and thereby to discuss the role of the case survey method as a means to build theory in the study of foreign policy. The research reported here uses a somewhat different measure of decision‐making process quality and a slightly expanded list of data sources than were used by Herek and his colleagues. It reevaluates a subset of the cases explored in the previous study. This research note largely confirms the analysis of crisis decision‐making processes presented in the previous study, though it notes and discusses some discrepancies. Furthermore, this reexamination seeks to contribute to our understanding of crisis decision‐making processes by using a different conceptualization of decision‐making process quality and thus a different coding procedure.     

论“阳光警察”测评指标设计

为了体现阳光警察的测评特点,突出阳光这一测评内容,把阳光警察的测评指标分为两个部分:阳光品德和阳光警务。阳光品德的测评指标参考国外对警察从业人员的品德要求,结合我国公安工作的特点,以及当前我国社会发展和家庭伦理关系的特点,立足于民警的生活、家庭、为人处事的态度、承担责任等几个观察点,来反映出民警是否具有健康的心理、良好的品德。阳光警务测评指标设计,根据各警种、各科室、各岗位的工作内容不同,为不同警种、岗位、科室设计不同的测评指标。     

县(市)干部培训需求情况的调查报告——基于清镇358份调查问卷的统计分析

按需培训是党校教学工作的基本原则,分类调研、收集汇总、分析整理各种类别的干部自身需求是党校教务工作的基础环节。文章基于贵阳清镇市358份问卷,分析了干部需求的整体态势、突出特征,并就课程设置、教学改革、师资建设等方面提出阶段性的对策建议。     

山西省柳林县城区交通的调研报告

随着我国经济的快速发展和城镇化进程的加快,很多县市都出现了城镇人口日渐增长,机动车保有量逐年增加,而城区道路发展缓慢,人、车、路的矛盾日益突出的问题。微观治理对策主要是:减少交叉路口,提高通行速度和能力;科学规划,增加或者减少红绿灯交通信号控制;将部分支路由双向通行调整为单向通行,或者禁止左转。