Effect of financial sector development and FDI inflow on employment rate in South Asia: New empirical evidence from ARDL approach

The current analysis aims to explore the empirical nexus between financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, and employment rate. To attain this aim, we collect 30 years of annual data over the period 1990 to 2019 from South Asian economies and employ the autoregressive dynamic least square (ARDL) model for regression analysis. The implication of the ARDL model was subject to the mixed stationarity status of the series as assessed by unit root testing. The robustness of the analysis was checked by employing the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models. The statistical analysis infers that both financial development and FDI inflow enhance the employment rate in the South Asia region. In addition, the empirical analysis infers that the gross capital formation, economic growth, and export volume have a positive while the population growth rate has a negative effect on the employment rate. The impact of underlying explanatory variables was found significant only in long run. The estimated coefficient values in the case of FMOLS and DOLS models support the direction of the relationship between explanatory variables and employment rate, implying the robustness of the analysis. The findings of the current analysis can be used to devise efficient economic policies to cope with the encroaching issue of unemployment in the South Asia region. This study offers the robustness to existing literature and complements the literature by exploring the underlying arrangement of study to the whole South Asia group.     

东北亚非传统安全:问题领域及合作模式

冷战结束后,传统安全在国际关系中的极度优先地位相对下降,非传统安全问题对国际社会带来的影响日益凸显。由于非传统安全拥有行为主体多样化、价值主体多层次、跨国性和嬗变性以及强调安全的合作性等特点,国家在该领域更易于达成合作。具体到东北亚地区,所涉及的问题领域包括金融危机、能源短缺、生态环境恶化、恐怖主义和大规模杀伤性武器扩散、非法移民、流行疾病等。尽管目前该地区非传统安全合作的制度化程度还不高,但由于各国在经济安全、能源安全、环境安全、社会安全等方面拥有广泛的共同利益,东北亚国家必将通过现实可行的制度设计来加强非传统安全领域的紧密合作。     

布什政府对东盟的政策及其对中国的影响

本文总结了布什执政以来美国对东盟的政策,探讨了影响美国政策的因素,分析了美国对东盟政策的调整将对中国—东盟关系产生的影响。文章认为,“9.11”事件以后,美国的反恐战争为其重返东南亚提供了契机。布什政府调整了对这一地区的政策,改善或提升了与东盟国家的关系。然而,把东盟作为一个地区机制,美国还没有完整的战略。美国主要推进的是双边关系,其中以军事关系为重。美国政策对中国的影响是复杂的,在中美关系稳定的情况下,其负面影响在短期内不会太大。     

Re-emergence of Asia and the Rise and Fall of the Japanese Economy in Super Long Waves of Capitalist World Systems

ABSTRACT

After the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, we are facing the beginning of the end of the post-war capitalist world system. The 1920s was in the middle of the social, political and economic interregnum, a period of discontinuity in the social order, accompanied by widespread unrest, wars and power vacuums. In this article, that framework of the long and super long waves in the capitalist world systems is used to examine the recent interregnum that marks the re-emergence of Asia. Within the framework of the long and super long waves a new “flying geese” theory is built by incorporating the theory of dynamic industries with Akamatsu’s theory. In the 1980s, Japanese integral production architecture improved quality and productivity in the automobile and electrical machinery industries. In the 1990s, the USA’s open modular production architecture enabled China’s compressed industrialisation, and the China-centric Asian production network replaced the Japan-led Pacific Rim triangular trade regime. In the 2000s, the knowledge-and technology-intensive (KTI) industries have established themselves as the new dynamic industries. The USA is the leading country to develop KTI industries. China is catching up quickly and has leapfrogged Japan in KTI industries. In conclusion, it is argued that these changes mark an approaching second interregnum.     

中日甲午战争与东北亚国际关系的变化

中日甲午战争中清朝的惨败给中国社会带来空前严重的社会危机,大大加深了中国社会半殖民地化的程度。而战胜国日本则国力日益强大,跻身于资本主义列强的行列。甲午战争后,日本的崛起和扩张加剧了东亚地区国家关系的变化,给这一地区的国际关系带来直接而深远的影响。东亚国际秩序由以中国为中心的传统宗藩朝贡体系向近代殖民条约体系转型,中朝日近代新型的国家关系逐渐建立起来,传统的宗藩体系土崩瓦解。本文以中日甲午战争的爆发与传统华夷秩序的瓦解为切入点,探讨甲午战争后东亚传统邻邦中朝日三国新型近代国家关系建立始末及其对三国关系产生的影响。     

郑和--中国和平外交的先行者

开展和平外交,是郑和下西洋最主要的目的和活动.郑和船队尊重各地习俗,礼待各国统治者和人民,积极进行文化交流,开展平等贸易,促进了中国与各国间友好关系的建立.郑和下西洋忠实地执行了明王朝睦邻友好的外交政策,谱写了中国与亚非各国和平友好关系的新篇章,使中外经济文化交流达到前所未有的鼎盛局面.     

亚太移民区域磋商机制与国际移民问题

近年来,全球人口最为集中的亚洲及太平洋地区,人口偷渡和贩卖层出不穷,难民问题日益严重,区域国家间的移民劳工流动日趋频繁。面对纷繁复杂的国际移民问题,亚太国家建立了一些专门性的非正式的移民治理区域磋商机制来应对。亚太移民区域磋商机制目前发挥了一定积极作用,但有效解决亚太地区复杂的移民问题仍任重道远。亚太移民区域磋商机制若不想成为国家的“弃儿”,需要释放潜力,进行更多尝试。     

Chinese warfare and politics in the ancient East Asian international system,CA. 2700 B.C. to 722 B.C.

Ancient East Asia is the second oldest “protobellic area” and pristine state system of international relations within the global international system, after West Asia (ancient Near East). In a previous study Cioffi‐Revilla and Lai (1995) reported the first findings on the origins and evolution of war and politics in ancient China (Legendary, Xia [Hsia], Shang, and Western Zhou [Chou] periods), ca. 2700 B.C to 722 B.C In this paper we make public an expanded data set (N = 104 cases, 12 variables; version 2.0), explaining our sources, measurements, and data quality control procedures. The new data set will permit investigators to test hypotheses about warfare distributions, ethnic and protracted conflicts, time series, periodicity, system dynamics, and structural relationships (e.g., war‐polarity theories). This new long‐range data set should also promote a new stage in comparative analyses of the universal and particular properties of warfare and international systems, both cross‐polity and longitudinally.     

“美元本位”与东南亚的外汇储备管理

全球经济失衡背景下,美国经常账户持续逆差与东南亚外汇储备迅速扩张引人注目,东南亚将美元作为贸易计价、结算货币和本币钉住的对象。1998年以后,东南亚经常账户由逆差开始转为顺差,导致其外汇储备快速增长,发展成为典型“官方债权国”。泰国的储备资产扩张更多地依托资本和金融账户,新加坡的外汇储备增长则具有坚实的经济基础,通过公积金计划的实施来降低货币当局的购汇压力。     

中国对东南亚公共外交的问题与建议

公共外交是国家的一项重要战略资产,对于传播本国外交理念,塑造国家形象,改善本国的国际舆论环境有重要的意义。但作为一种外交手段,公共外交也具有局限性,其作用不应该过度被夸大。本文以中国在东南亚地区的公共外交为例,分析了我国公共外交存在的问题并提出了政策建议。