China and the middle-income trap: toward a Post Washington,Post Beijing Consensus

Abstract

Over the last 30 years, China has experienced tremendous growth, with many commentators attributing the rapid development to the ‘China Model’ (CM) or the ‘Beijing Consensus’ (BC). However, in recent years growth has slowed and an ever-increasing number of bears are predicting a financial crisis, economic collapse, and a very hard landing, perhaps even a lost decade a la Japan. All of this has led to heated debate about whether the CM is now exhausted, whether China is caught in ‘the middle-income trap’ (MIT) and whether a new model is needed for the next phase of development where China attempts the difficult transition from middle-income country to high-income country status. This article addresses the following five sets of issues. First, is there a CM or BC? If so, what does it entail, and does it differ from the model followed by other successful countries in East Asia? Second, is there a MIT? Is China stuck in the MIT or perhaps multiple MITs? Third, what adjustments to the economic model are required for China to continue its long march toward becoming a high-income country? Fourth, are political, legal and social reforms also required? If so, will all reforms proceed simultaneously or are reforms likely to be sequenced, with adjustments to the economy preceding reforms in other areas? Fifth, is there now a global convergence on a new model of development for developing countries – a Post-Washington, Post-Beijing Consensus?     

北京率先基本实现现代化的难点与对策

2001年北京提出率先在全国基本实现现代化.北京作为我国的首都和经济社会发达地区,提出在全国率先基本实现现代化的奋斗目标,既体现了中央对北京的期望和要求,也是北京发展跨入新阶段的必然选择.     

北京市依法行政调研

本文总结了北京市依法行政的现状及成绩 ,查找出依法行政中存在的问题 ,并有针对性地提出推进首都依法行政进程的对策与建议。     

特大城市工会创新发展道路实践探索 —— 以工会十六大以来北京工会发展为例

在加快转变经济社会发展方式过程中,北京工会带领广大职工发挥主力军作用,在城市建设过程中,参与社会治理;在逐步完善现代市场经济体系过程中,促进发展成果共建共享。在首都深化改革过程中,北京工会进行了系列变革设计与卓有成效的实践探索,为我国特大城市转型升级过程中如何发挥工会作用,不断创新发展具有中国特色、时代特征的工会工作,提供借鉴参考。     

城乡结合部环境卫生管理工作研究

城乡结合部环境卫生的脏乱现象，严重影响和制约着城市环境卫生整体水平的提高，通过大量的调研，提出了解决这种现象的对策。     

北京外来人口调控对京津冀协同发展的推动作用探析[1]

京津冀协同发展战略与北京外来人口调控之间是整体与部分、系统与子系统的关系，无论是从静态还是从动态的角度来看，都可以得出两个基本判断：其一，京津冀协同发展战略对北京外来人口调控具有重要的引领作用；其二，北京外来人口调控对京津冀协同发展具有积极的推动作用。本文着重研究后一种作用，从调控北京外来人口是完成京津冀协同发展核心任务的必然选择、调控北京外来人口是加快区域协同发展的有效途径这两大方面对其作了较深入而具体的阐述。     

北京市及周边省份家禽鹦鹉热嗜性衣原体流行状况的调查

对北京市周边6省份怀疑感染鹦鹉热嗜性衣原体的鸡鸭血清样品374份、病料81份,分别使用IHA诊断试剂盒、ELISA试剂盒以及抗酸染色试剂和荧光抗体诊断试剂进行了检查,以评价北京市及其周边地区家禽鹦鹉热嗜性衣原体的流行性。结果,上述4种试剂检测出的阳性率依次为24.9%、77.9%、18.5%和38.2%;北京市10份SPF鸡血清的抗体全部为阳性;患病肉鸡、肉鸭气囊样品,蛋鸡输卵管样品的检出率较高。表明,北京市及其周边地区家禽已经感染了鹦鹉热嗜性衣原体,酶联免疫吸附法和荧光抗体染色法能分别提高抗体和抗原的检出率。     

Beijing's 2007 political reform plan and prospects for Hong Kong's democratization

In the September 2008 Legislative Council election, Hong Kong's democrats managed to retain their veto position in the political reform process. Now, the democrats face the dilemma of what to do with Beijing's 2007 plan for Hong Kong's democratization. According to the plan, the people of Hong Kong could see the direct election of the chief executive and the entire legislature in 2017 and 2020, respectively. Although the plan is not perfect, Hong Kong's pan-democratic camp may need to adopt a negotiated approach, given the current political reality and the balance of power between local democrats and Beijing. It is suggested here that there is room for negotiation in the latter's reform plan. If some moderate democrats are willing to pursue a negotiated strategy, Beijing's political reform plan for Hong Kong stands a significant chance of being approved. Recent developments in Hong Kong indicate that such a prospect could indeed materialize.     

二重与多维:融入进程中的社会认同——北京市新生代农民工社会认同研究

通过对北京市新生代农民工9206份调查问卷的数据分析和访谈发现,北京市新生代农民工社会认同的现状为:对公共政策歧视度呈中性偏消极评价;与市民的人际交往状况较差,但未现隔离与排斥之势;对现代性的城市文化初步接纳与认同;自我身份认同游离于"市民"与"农民"之间。北京市新生代农民工社会认同总体呈现广度上的多维性与深度上的二重性特征。