深度伪造与国家安全:基于总体国家安全观的视角

深度伪造是人工智能技术和数字技术发展的产物,自2017年第一个深度伪造的作品出现,深度伪造正在世界范围内快速扩散。人工智能与大数据技术的发展和普及,使得有心者制作各种深度伪造作品的门槛大大降低,导致互联网和各种社交媒体充斥着各式各样的深度伪造作品。深度伪造技术既有造福于人类社会的正面功能,也有给国家安全带来风险与挑战的负面作用。它不仅给国际形势和国际安全环境带来了巨大的冲击,让国际社会本就存在的“信任赤字”更为恶化,而且在国防安全、政治安全、经济安全和国民安全等领域制造了更多、更为复杂的问题。国际经济犯罪团伙利用深度伪造对中国企业和民众进行诈骗活动;以美国为首的西方国家更是频频利用深度伪造的作品,在涉疆、涉港等问题上对中国发难;在重大国际问题上,国际上的各种势力更是利用深度伪造争取中国的民意,造成部分民众认知的错乱;等等。要治理深度伪造所带来的各种安全隐患,就要在总体国家安全架构下完善针对深度伪造的综合治理体系,同时倡导综合安全、合作安全和共同安全的理念,与国际社会共同打造数字时代人类安全的命运共同体。     

Building something beautiful with stones: How regions adapt to,shape and transform the EU opportunity structure

The literature on the relationship between regions and the European Union (EU) has generated three important insights. First, research has found that the EU empowers as well as disempowers regions. Second, studies have demonstrated that regions adapt to the EU opportunity structure. Third, scholars have discovered that regions also change the EU opportunity structure. However, the three dimensions are rarely brought together. To examine the mutual influence and constant interaction between the three, the article applies a strategic-relational approach to regional action within the EU. Using the empirical example of the EU macro-regional strategy for the Alpine region, the article shows how regional motivations, differential opportunities and constraints and strategies of adaptation and transformation interact. The conclusions imply that both opportunity structures and regional strategies together produce the mosaic of rules, resources, relationships and ideas that makes up the EU.     

Public Nursery School Costs and the Effects of the Funding Reforms in Japan

Using a panel dataset of 983 municipalities across Japan, this article investigates the impact of the funding reforms in 2004 on public nursery schools’ operating costs. We found that municipalities responded differently to the reforms, depending on their fiscal strength and city scale. In areas with relatively large populations, fiscally stronger municipalities were likely to spend less on public nursery schools in the wake of the reforms, while municipalities in smaller cities spent more. Besides, municipalities that were not compensated for the loss of the national subsidy reduced expenditures in large cities. In small cities, on the other hand, such municipalities actually increased expenditures.     

“It makes it legit”: local semiotic perceptions of the linguistic landscape in a market in Soshanguve,South Africa

This article explores the linguistic landscape (LL) of a semi-informal market in a South African township called Soshanguve. The fieldsite is situated in an area that is characterized by diversity and longstanding multilingualism. An ethnographic approach draws on the semiotic reading of the LL by a participant whose analysis of the multilingual commercial signage provides insight into local perceptions on language use and materiality. The study focuses on the participant’s analysis of the indexicality of African languages and traders’ names used in the LL that is in general dominated by English. Furthermore, the use of Sepitori (mixed language) in the signage will be explored for the first time. Findings contribute to disentangle and expand the notion of luxury and necessity. More specifically, we suggest that these concepts can be extended to include the notions of sponsorship and mediation, which can potentially involve reinterpreting the process of production, use and perception of the materials in signage.     

Indebted to development: microcredit as (de)marginalisation in rural China

Microcredit schemes have been increasingly incorporated into development policies that aim to de-marginalise rural China. Based on in-depth ethnographic fieldwork, this paper examines the various roles that microcredit programmes play in development outcomes at the local level. It demonstrates that microcredit has the ability to facilitate the de-marginalisation of certain individuals/groups, while simultaneously (re)producing inequalities, thus exacerbating the marginalisation of others. This finding demonstrates that microcredit does not induce uniform, predictable and linear development through the integration of marginal places and people into the formal financial system and wider economy. Instead, microcredit programmes reflect and reinforce the interlocking sets of unequal relationships that are the root cause of marginality and underdevelopment in China. Through this detailed analysis of the contradictory outcomes of Chinese microcredit programmes, this paper provides the basis for a wider relational critique of microcredit as an intervention aimed at inducing a specific type of market-oriented linear development that is beneficial for some and detrimental for others.     

A Comparison of Tobacco Policy in the UK and Japan: If the Scientific Evidence is Identical,Why is There a Major Difference in Policy?

Tobacco policy in the UK and Japan has diverged markedly. In the 1980s, both countries oversaw regimes with minimal economic and regulatory policies. Now the UK has become one of the most, and Japan one of the least, controlled (advanced industrial) states. These developments are puzzling to public health scholars who give primary explanatory weight to scientific evidence and a vague notion of “political will”, because policy makers possessed the same evidence on the harms of tobacco, and made the same international commitment to comprehensive tobacco control. Instead, we identify the role of a mutually reinforcing dynamic in policy environments, facilitating policy change in the UK but not Japan: policy makers accepted the scientific evidence, framed tobacco as a public health epidemic, placed health departments at the heart of policy, formed networks with public health groups and excluded tobacco companies, and accentuated socio-economic conditions supportive of tobacco control. This dynamic helps explain why the UK became more likely to select each tobacco policy control instrument during a series of “windows of opportunity”. Such analysis, generated by policy theory, is crucial to contemporary science/practitioner debates on the politics of “evidence-based policy making”: the evidence does not speak for itself, and practitioners need to know how to use it effectively in policy environments.     

Disentangling Actors from Their Environment? Pitfalls and Added-Value of the Strategic-Choice Approach

ABSTRACT

This article argues that the Strategic-Choice Approach (SCA) put forward by Lake and Powell (1999b) can be further developed in two directions. First, the article highlights the challenge posed by the interdependence between actors and their environment. From this it draws two conclusions. A) The SCA approach is most fruitful for synchronic analysis but more challenging to implement in a diachronic research design. B) The interdependence between actors and their environment can be lessened by distinguishing between three types of actor preferences: meta, ranked, and pragmatic-preferences. Second, it argues that the SCA is an ideal framework to combine qualitative and quantitative research designs.     

Use of an Automated System to Evaluate Feature Dissimilarities in Handwriting Under a Two-Stage Evaluative Process*†

The two-stage evaluative process is an established framework utilized by forensic document examiners (FDEs) for reaching a conclusion about the source(s) of handwritten evidence. In the second, or discrimination, stage, the examiner attempts to estimate the rarity of observations in a relevant background population. Unfortunately, control samples from a relevant background population are often unavailable, leaving the FDE to reach this determination based on subjective experience. Automated handwriting feature recognition systems are capable of performing both feature comparison and discrimination, yet these systems have not been subjected to empirical validation studies. In the present study, we repurposed a commercially available automated system to generate empirical distributions for ranking feature dissimilarity scores among pairs of handwritten phrases. The blinded results of this automated process were used to survey an international cohort of 36 FDEs regarding their strength of support for same- and different-writer propositions. The survey served to cross-validate FDE decision-making under the two-stage approach. Results from the survey demonstrated a clear pattern of response consistent with ground truth. Predictive regression analyses indicated that the automated feature dissimilarity scores and the log of their cumulative distribution functions accounted for 72% of the variability in FDE opinions. This study demonstrated that feature dissimilarity scores acquired using automated processes and their distributions are closely aligned with FDE decision-making processes supporting the heuristic value of the two-stage evaluative framework.     

现阶段社会治安状况评价研究综述

社会治安状况评估是测量国家或地区的总体治安状况的标尺。因此,它是政府部门掌握社会治安真实情况的重要途径。从社会治安状况评价的概念、研究方法和指标体系等方面进行归纳和总结,有利于明晰社会治安状况评价指标体系的研究思路。