What drives compliance with COVID-19 measures over time? Explaining changing impacts with Goal Framing Theory

The COVID-19 pandemic provides a unique opportunity to study which factors drive compliance and how the evolving context in society –virus fluctuations and changing government measures – changes the impact of these factors. Extant literature lists many factors that drive compliance – notably enforcement, trust, legitimacy. Most of these studies, however, do not look across time: whether a changing context for citizens changes the impact of factors driving compliance. In this study, we use Lindenberg's Goal Framing Theory to explain the dynamics of these drivers of compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate hypotheses for pro-socialness, trust in government, observed respect for rules, rule effectiveness, rule appropriateness, fear of COVID-19 (severity and proximity), opportunities for pleasure and happiness, as well as worsened income position. We test our hypotheses with data collected at three different moments during the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis in Flanders, Belgium. Findings show that over time the constellations of factors that drive compliance change and, later in the pandemic, more distinct groups of citizens with different motivations to comply are identified. The overall conclusion is that the voluntary basis for compliance becomes more fragile over time, with a more differentiated pattern of drivers of compliance emerging. Public policy and communication need to adapt to these changes over time and address different groups of citizens.     

因势利导:化解非传统安全困境的东盟路径

非传统安全困境存在吗?这种安全困境为何产生?以东盟为中心的东亚区域合作能否将其化解?既往研究通常一分为二地看待国家在传统安全与非传统安全议题中的行为逻辑,用安全困境的理论解释前者,安全化与和合主义等概念描述后者,认为后者更易导向国际合作。新冠肺炎疫情是一次非传统安全危机,然而世界各国却在应对过程中合作乏力、对立加深,这是一种非传统安全困境,各国政策和行为意图的不确定性是其主要原因。冷战后,以东盟为中心的区域合作架构在非传统安全议题上因势利导,增强各国对安全威胁的共同认识,依托既有地区合作机制凝聚共同利益,形成了增强政策和行为意图确定性的“威胁—利益”转化机制,在一定程度上化解了这种非传统安全困境。2020年4月,为应对疫情而召开的“10+3”特别峰会即为例证。东盟国家与中日韩三国对安全利益的共识虽有待增强,但对安全威胁的预估已趋于一致,是化解当下全球性非传统安全困境的一个地区性积极表征。     

Gender differences in the dispersal of children in northern Sweden and the northern USA in 1850

In the course of time families disperse and kin relationships change. In this study gender differences in spatial dispersion of adult children from their fathers were investigated in two areas of the world in 1850: the Skellefteå region in northern Sweden and the northern part of the USA, both largely rural populations. The results from the Skellefteå region where data on both genders were available were used to estimate gender differences among a native born population in the northern USA where women were often not followed in the sources after marriage. Most adult children resided in the same place as their fathers, but the distances separating relatives were greater in the USA. However, the proportion of adult sons living in the same locality as their fathers was the same in both. More daughters than sons were located elsewhere in Skellefteå and probably also in the USA. Although sisters in Skellefteå joined each other in places separate from their parents, men lived in patrilineal clusters to a greater extent than women due, in part, to patrilineal inheritance and virilocal marriages. Various reasons for these patterns are discussed and their implications for kin networks discussed.     

Street politics in Damascus: Kinship and other social categories as bases of political action, 1830–1841

The study examines popular politics in Damascus during the 1830s with a focus on kinship and other social categories that served as bases for political action. It is based on a close reading of one text, an anonymous Arabic chronicle known as ‘Historical Memoirs’ (Mudhakkirāt tārīkhiyya), which is analysed as a repertoire of contemporary social and political concepts. This analysis reveals an ideology of ‘localist’ resistance against the centralising state and its ‘loyalist’ allies in Damascus. Kinship played an important role in this struggle on the social plane (e.g. by using family networks for political ends) as well as on the cultural plane (e.g. through the use of kinship metaphors or through criticism of kinship ties in politics). It is concluded that the function of kinship in Damascene politics can only be understood in the context of other social categories such as factionalism, religious affiliation, class and ethnicity.     

Marriage patterns in 19th-century Vila do Conde: The study of an urban centre in northwest Portugal

This article investigates marital patterns in the urban town of Vila do Conde, northwest Portugal, during the 19th century. The analysis, which is based on the application of the family reconstitution method, reveals differences in marital patterns between rural and urban settlements. It was observed that Vila do Conde displayed different patterns of marriage than those that have often been described for the northwestern region of Portugal, with an emphasis on lower levels of celibacy, as well as lower fertility rates. It was discovered that migration played a very important role in these dynamics. It is a fact that the increasing outflow of male emigrants had a distortion effect on the marriage market. Nevertheless, the influx of in-migrants to the town contributed to alleviate the adult male shortage and resulting gender imbalance, generating lower proportions of celibacy and higher levels of total fertility. Although several important publications have already identified demographic trends in many parishes of the region in focus, few have been concerned with urban parishes. This research aims to contribute to a better understanding of the population dynamics of urban centres in northwest Portugal when set within the context of a number of the structural changes specific to that region and Portugal as a whole in the 19th century.     

Introduction to special section on the biological standard of living

In December 2008 the WOG Historical Demography organised a workshop at Ghent University that covered a wide range of topics from fertility trends and kinship characteristics to health issues. The presentations and discussions that took place at the workshop provided the inspiration for this special section on the biological standard of living. The articles in this section offer valuable contributions for three of those biological measures: height, mortality and cause of death. The introduction to the section demonstrates the significance of this particular kind of evidence for our understanding of social and economic history. Exploring and analysing the well-being of populations is one of the most interesting and main challenges of social scientists. As the articles in this special section show, using historical evidence on the health and height of a population is extremely important for our understanding of certain socio-economic processes, but also extremely complex.     

Razzia: A Turning Point in Modern Strategy

The razzia, a tactic of swift and brutal raids used by the French military against recalcitrant tribes in Algeria in the 1840s, was a necessary step in modern military thought. At first glance the destructive and violent razzias stand in stark contrast to the constructive and non-violent bureaux arabes—an institutional ancestor of Provincial Reconstruction Teams. But both were developed in the same conflict and by the same men. These two innovations, this article argues, were also flipsides of the same coin: what today is called war “among the people.” The razzia consequently appears as a necessary historic precursor for contemporary counterinsurgency doctrine.     

重大公共危机情境下治理效能：注意力分配转移的关键作用

地方干部是理解我国行政系统运转的基础,他们的行为深受行政系统注意力分配的影响。疫情早期受到系统性风险冲击,行政系统功能不彰,可从三个层面理解：面临制度间隙与危机情景,地方干部热衷承担过程性责任,规避结果性责任;传统激励机制惯性牵扯了突变情境新激励机制的效果;行政系统“死机”与疫情信息“黑洞”并存。面临这些挑战,最高决策层通过权力权威、激励与资源配置三种制度化方式引导干部群体注意力分配,有效推动行政系统由“多任务”转变为“危机处理”。结果显示,我国迅速取得疫情防控和复工复产双推进,彰显了“中国制度”的优势。     

Independent review of emergency economic stimulus measures: Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19

Major government emergency interventions demand, and generally receive, independent scrutiny. This article looks back at reviews of the Australian government's economic stimulus measures introduced in the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), in anticipation of reviews of responses to the COVID-19 emergency, noting similarities and differences between the two crises. We examine 10 independent reviews of the Australian government's response to the GFC with a particular focus on their nature and the context in which they occurred. As a result, we identify five themes: when and how often reviews are conducted; recognition of context; the need for clear program objectives; explicit design principles; and governance. We develop a typology of independent reviews that has three key and interrelated dimensions: purpose, timing, and reviewer. We observe that there was patchwork coverage of the GFC measures, with no single report providing a holistic assessment of what was achieved or lessons learnt. We contend that, notwithstanding differences between crises, the typology will aid understanding of the role, key issues, and contributions of reviews that have already been, or will be, commissioned into COVID-19 and future emergency economic stimulus measures.